Liver's 2009 NFL Week Three Picks

If only EVERY weekend could be like last weekend, gambling-wise that is.

The opening of Cowboys Stadium was a study in wretched excess the likes of which you see in Michael Bay/Jerry Bruckheimer films. You’d never guess we were in an economic depression. About the only things missing were lions and tigers roaming the field while Russell Crowe and the other gladiators tore each other to pieces.

Thanks so much Jerry for having George W. Bush, A.K.A. THE WORST F***ING PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES perform the initial coin toss. Thanks for reiterating what the world hates about Texas and reminding the country who was in charge while the country sunk to depths that we’re still trying to dig ourselves out of. Not all Texans voted for him. The Liver proudly counts himself in that minority.

Given Jerry’s and W’s love of oil, I’m surprised Jerry didn’t have a mini-oil well pumping on the far end of one of the end zones. As Gordon Gekko says; “Money never sleeps.”
 
Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 12-3-1

2009 record against the spread: 19-12-1

Sunday, September 27

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay (+6 ½)

If last week was any indicator, I think Eli has found his receivers in Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. As of right now they rank 1 and 2 respectively in the NFC in receiving yards. Then again they could also be average receivers that had a great day against one of the more gutless, pathetic secondaries in football. If, however, they are the real deal; this Giants team will nearly be impossible to stop on offense. The Giants might be wise to get back to their running game, which was surprisingly ineffective against the Cowboys. The banged up Giants defense will most likely load up the box to shut down Cadillac Williams and force Byron “I can take all day to throw” Leftwich to wind up his arm. This is also a Bucs defense that has given up 900 YARDS IN TWO GAMES. Somewhere I hear Principal Ed Rooney shaking his head. 

Losing safety Kenny Phillips for the year is gonna hurt the Giants secondary, however, which was already banged up. If the defense continues to lose players at this rate, it could derail their Super Bowl hopes. Eli Manning continues to be one of the more effective and reliable QBs in the NFL and last Sunday night’s performance was a small masterpiece for him. Consider that in his last 37 starts including the playoffs, he is 28-9. He’s going to have to continue his strong, error-free play if the defense can’t get healthy. Pick: N.Y.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (-2 ½)

That was a nice win over the Patriots last week but Jets fans as well as Rex Ryan need to tap the brakes on that “We deserve respect now” bit. You’ve won two games in September. Call me in December when you’re winning games and you’ll get respect. The Jets can go a long way towards getting that respect if they can take care of a seriously offensively challenged 0-2 Titans team that might be seeing the wheels finally come off of Kerry Collins. The Titans need this game desperately to avoid going 0-3 and it could be an excellent maturity barometer for the Jets as this is a classic letdown game for a young team coming off such an emotional win. The Titans’ disappointing secondary, thus far, has to make Mark Sanchez and his receivers work for a living. Pick: N.Y.


San Francisco at Minnesota (-7)

I don’t think many people had this game as “Game of the Week” material when the schedule came out but San Francisco is off to a surprising 2-0 start and their defense has looked good. Both teams run the ball, play tough on the defensive side and don’t ask their QBs to win the game for them. I still can’t believe one of those QBs I just described is Brett Favre. Minnesota would be wise not to look ahead to Green Bay next week or they might be 2-1 headed into that Monday night game. Pick: S.F.


Washington at Detroit (+6 ½)

I’m calling the upset of the week right now; LIONS WIN THIS GAME and break their 19 game losing streak. Too bad though because the game is apparently going to be blacked out in Detroit because the game isn’t a sellout. As for the Redskins, it takes a lot to win a home game and STILL GET BOOED by your fans. Then you have my favorite tweeter, rookie linebacker Robert Henson, tell the Redskins faithful that they are “dim wits” and that “you all work 9 to 5 at McDonald's.” Last time I checked, mouthing off to fans is a no-win scenario. The Rams are the worst team in football and the Redskins could only score 9 points in the win. If the Lions are to pull off the upset they must shore up a run defense that has allowed 134 yards on the ground through two weeks. The only chance the Redskins have is to run Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts into the ground. Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn are on the clock as of now. Pick: Detroit

Jacksonville at Houston (-4)

The Jags are looking awful right now and that might be because they’re putting games in the hands of David Garrard. You’re not going to win many games when he throws the ball 43 times. Or it could be because their secondary just got picked apart by Arizona. Their only chance of winning is by slowing the games down with Maurice Jones-Drew. After an embarrassing opening day loss, the Texans acquitted themselves nicely in a game that they could have easily lost. These AFC South match-ups typically end up being close affairs so expect more of the same here. If Houston is the playoff team many predicted, they must find a way to win this game. Picking a team here is like ending up at the gateway end of a drunken night in a hotel room with two not-so-attractive girls. Picking either one is going to be disconcerting, impaired and uncomfortable. You really have no faith in either of them yet you must decide.  Pick: Jacksonville   

Green Bay at St. Louis (+6 ½)

Green Bay has some work to do with their offensive line which has given up 10 sacks in 2 games. Being flagged for 11 penalties is what I’d call Cowboys-esque. That’s not Super Bowl worthy which is what several wise asses have called the Packers. The Bengals had two chances to win last week in Lambeau and they accomplished both in establishing Cedric Benson on the ground and bringing constant heat on Aaron Rodgers. Luckily the Packers are playing the worst team in football and should spend the second half preparing for the first of the two highly anticipated Brett Favre bowls this season. Pick: Green Bay

Kansas City at Philadelphia (OFF)

Thank you Vegas for the free money. Note to Filthy fans; last I checked QBs don’t play on defense so don’t blame Kevin Kolb for the 48 points you gave up last week against the Saints. Besides, the Saints could score 48 on just about any team right now. McNabb’s status is still doubtful which means Kolb gets the start again. That also explains the line being off the majority of the week. Why bother risking further injury to McNabb when this is a winnable game without him and you have a bye week coming up? The big drama here is how and when will one Michael Vick, who is finally eligible to play, perform? The Eagles will most likely try and expose the Chiefs weak run defense and limit the number of throws Kolb makes. Look for Matt Cassel to spend much of his day on his ass and on the run. And why did ANYONE think Todd Haley was head coach material? Pick: Filthy

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13 ½)

The Browns have been disgusting to watch so far but that’s not a big surprise. Brady Quinn has been sacked 9 times in two games and that number will increase significantly against a superb Ravens pass rush. This Ravens team just might have what it takes to get through the AFC with New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and San Diego all looking less then stellar. It’s not always pretty, but the Ravens win more than they lose. It’s a big number to lay but Cleveland is a big piece of shit. Pick: Baltimore

Atlanta at New England (-4)

Atlanta has done nothing to dissuade those, like myself, who said that they would be an easy winner of the NFC South. Tony Gonzales doesn’t look like he’s missed a step and Matt Ryan has picked up where he left off last season. If the Patriots pass rush can’t get to Ryan, it’s going to be difficult to beat them. Meanwhile, something is wrong with the Patriots offense. Maybe it’s the offensive line that is allowing Mr. GQ QB to get his ass kicked. The Jets gave the NFL the blueprint they need, for now anyway, on how to beat this team. A couple more games with that kind of poor effort and he might be on the sidelines again. They didn’t score a TD last week against the Jets, a first since 2006. They’re damn lucky to be 1-1 and not 0-2. Had Leodis McKelvin not fumbled the ball at the end of the Buffalo game, the Patriots would be in even worse trouble. Pick: Atlanta

New Orleans at Buffalo (+6)

Bad news for the NFL just in: the Saints are better on defense and it’s because of Darren Sharper. Already with 3 picks through the first two games, Sharper seems to be the new emotional leader of that defense. All they needed to do was tweak the defense so that they could make some stops. They seem to have done that and I hear they have a pretty decent offense. Buffalo needs to sustain drives on offense because that’s the only defense against Drew Brees that seems to work. Pick: New Orleans

Chicago at Seattle (+2)

Chicago had a season-saving win last week against the Steelers and should not encounter NEARLY as much trouble against an awful Seattle defense. The Bears have had some offensive line trouble which has led to an ineffective running game but those problems should be taken care of, at least against Seattle. Jay “WAAAH” Cutler could have a huge day through the air today. Pick: Chicago

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+4)

Don’t those last second field goals kick you in the nuts? I know all about it. The Steelers have the same problems they did last week in their poor offensive line play which has been one of the reasons for a running game that has averaged 70 yards a game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati comes off a surprising win in Lambeau last week and have looked very strong against the run. Cincinnati could shred the Steelers offensive line just as they did against the Packers last week. Yes, that line SOMEHOW helped win a Super Bowl last year but it looks like the rest of the league is learning how to exploit their many weaknesses. Troy Polamalu’s absence makes a huge difference with that Pittsburgh secondary. Pittsburgh could have another game decided by a field goal here. Pick: Cincinnati

Denver at Oakland (-1 ½)

Yes Raiders fans, you got the win over a bad Chiefs team but you also gave up 173 yards on the ground. If Denver gets Buckhalter and Moreno established early, the Raiders will have to rely on JaMarcus Russell to make plays and we all know what happens when that scenario comes up. He’s easily one of the five WORST QBs in football. The Broncos are arguably the most deceptive 2-0 team you ever saw. One win comes courtesy of the flukiest TD you’ll see in your life and the other comes courtesy of the Browns. They should be the most deceptive 3-0 team after today. Pick: Denver

Miami at San Diego (-6)

Hey Miami? Did it ever occur to you that you could also THROW out of the Wild, no I mean Tired, Cat formation not just run? They had the ball for over 45 minutes last Monday night and STILL couldn’t win. Meanwhile, the curse of Norv Turner lives on as the Chargers have been one of the bigger disappointments in the league thus far. Norv was a great offensive coordinator but he’s not the guy who instills confidence as a head coach. I hear they have one of the guys grazing the sidelines for the Cowboys. Pick: Miami

Indianapolis at Arizona (-2 ½)

The Colts may have won Monday night but their old familiar problems of running and stopping the run appear to be alive and well. They won’t win this game with an offense on the field for less than 15 minutes. The Colts linebackers would be wise to drop back into coverage and limit the yards that Boldin and Fitzgerald get after the catch. The Cardinals still can’t run the ball so they’re going to be one-dimensional on offense as usual. If they can run, they can dominate what is sure to be an exhausted Colts defense. Pick: Indy

Monday, September 28

Carolina at Dallas (-9)

Dallas is getting 9 points? For you Shield fans out there, somewhere Dutch Wagenbach is muttering “You gotta be shitting me!” If you’re not a Shield fan, GO RENT THE ENTIRE SERIES AND WATCH THE GREATEST DRAMATIC TV SERIES EVER.

One of the reasons Carolina is 0-2, and no I’m not talking about Jake right now, is the fact that their new defensive coordinator Ron Meeks likes to play two-deep zones with limited blitzing. In order for that to be effective, however, the front four has to be solid and Carolina’s have been anything but. QBs have had all day to attack the secondary and haven’t had to worry about pressure coming their way.

Then there’s the Cowboys. You would think that after showing your assess in front of an all-time NFL record crowd of 105,121 people, they’d come back with fire in their eyes. Not this team and so far they are doing EXACTLY what I thought they’d do. The senseless penalties are still there. Is there a player in the NFL more reprehensibly stupid then Flozell Adams A.K.A. “The Most Penalized Man in the NFL over the last 2 Years?” The turnovers are also still there only not in the form of recovered ones by the defense. It seems Tony Romo is regressing as a QB which is dumbfounding. Maybe HE’S JUST NOT THAT GOOD?  13 of 29 for 127 yards against a patchwork secondary is INEXCUSABLE. Romo either has concentration problems or he just can’t handle the big time. Either way, he needs to get his shit together.

The two sides of the defense seem to take turns getting shredded every other week. Against Tampa Bay, the run defense gets abused for 174 yards. Against the Giants, the secondary makes Steve Smith and Mario Manningham look like All-Pros with 20 catches, 284 yards and 2 TDs. The team that led the NFL in sacks last year has ZERO so far.

Considering the way the Cowboys closed Texas Stadium against the Ravens last year by allowing the two longest runs by an opponent in stadium history during the final four minutes to lose the game; maybe the way they opened Cowboys Stadium shouldn’t be much of a shocker. This team isn’t even waiting for December to fold. They’re going to get started early this year. This is an average football team as its 11-10 record over the last 21 regular season states clearly. I thought this team might have more heart than last year’s bunch of front-running losers but even that has been wishful thinking.

This defense can’t rank 30th in yards allowed per game (438.5) READ THAT F***ING NUMBER AGAIN, 30th in pass yards allowed per game (303), 24th in rush yards allowed per game (135.5) and have NO TURNOVERS AND NO SACKS; unless they’re not that good. I never thought I’d say this, but I kind of miss Greg Ellis, Kevin Burnett and Anthony Henry right now. You can keep Roy Williams though Cincinnati. Terence Newman continues to show why he never has and never will be an elite corner in this league. And now we all know why Wade Phillips didn’t name a starter on the opposite side of Newman. That’s because both Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins are NOT starting corners in this league.

They’ll probably have an easier time against an immobile and turnover-prone Jake Delhomme Monday night. Hell, they might even get a sack or an interception. The Panthers are 0-2 and need this game in the worst way. The Cowboys are 1-1 and need this game in the worst way. The easy part of the Cowboys schedule is right now and they can’t afford to piss away games. If the Cowboys blow this one, you can toss this season in the toilet and start speculating on the Cowhers and Holmgrens and Shanahans that might be roaming the sidelines in 2010. Honestly, it can’t come soon enough. Pick: Carolina