Why Mustafi Is the Player Bayern Munich Will Regret Not Signing in January

Bayern Munich's bid for a treble was dealt a hefty blow during the 56th minute of their recent win against Hamburg as Jerome Boateng went to ground.

It was a seemingly innocuous incident, but the center-back almost immediately signaled to the bench that he needed to be substituted. After the match, it was revealed that the Germany international had suffered a groin injury.

Although the club declined to comment on exactly how long he was expected to be sidelined, Kicker (h/t ESPN) reported that he could be could be out for up to four months.

Much to Karl-Heinz Rummenigge's chagrin (the club president was quick to remind the German FA, per ESPN, that the player is under contract at Bayern, not the German national team), all the dialogue since the incident has been whether Boateng would be able to feature for his country at UEFA Euro 2016, not whether he'll play a role for the Bundesliga champions before season's end.

Boateng was a crucial component in the Bayern defense, the only natural center-back in the team who had remained relatively fit in previous years. And he'd come a long way in his development.

Once a Manchester City reject, the 27-year-old had become a complete center-back. He was one of the few players who actually stepped up his level of play during the 2013 Champions League final (at the time, the club still lacked leadership), and he was heroic during the 2014 World Cup.

This season, he'd taken on a new dimension in the passing game: Most notably, two well-played long passes to slice open the Borussia Dortmund defense as Bayern routed their nearest rivals in the Bundesliga title race by a 5-1 margin in October.

"

Interesting from Shkodran Mustafi's agent Ali Bulut: "Bayern Munich watch all of his matches. But they have still not made contact with us".

— Marco Conradie (@MarcoConradie10) October 8, 2015"

Boateng's pace and raw athleticism enabled Pep Guardiola to play a high defensive line with less worry of the possibility of being caught out on the counterattack; a key improvement from the times when Louis van Gaal used a similar tactic with the likes of Daniel van Buyten, Martin Demichelis and Anatoliy Tymoshchuk as center-backs.

Boateng's tackling technique, ability to mark his opponent and skill in one-on-one situations is absolutely fantastic.

Sporting director Matthias Sammer even went so far as to say in October, per Goal, that "There's no question that he is the best defender in the world."

Thus, when Bayern received news of his injury, it was a little peculiar that they did not immediately move to bring in reinforcements; especially considering the many injuries Holger Badstuber, Mehdi Benatia and Javi Martinez have had to endure in recent years.

Yet Rummenigge almost immediately told Deutsche Presse Agentur (h/t Goal): "There are no good players on the market. And less-than-ideal solutions don't help us at the end of the day. Thus, we won't do anything. If there had been someone on the market of the quality of Bayern, we would be dealing with them."

Only after Martinez joined the growing list of injured Bayern defenders did the club move to bring in reinforcements.

Their choice on deadline day: Spartak Moscow defender Serdar Tasci, per BBC Sport.

The 28-year-old wasn't cup-tied, but he also hadn't played in the Champions League for six years. He'll provide depth, but the fact that it's a loan move and not a permanent deal is proof that Bayern don't see Tasci as anything more than a stop-gap solution for the moment.

One thing Rummenigge failed to acknowledge in his claim that there were no good players available was the fact that in Spain, law requires that every player be on the market, for a price: All footballers in La Liga have release clauses in their contracts.

And according to the same Goal report, Valencia's Shkodran Mustafi could have moved to Munich this winter for €50 million.

Goal reported that the 23-year-old is a player the Bavarians have been monitoring for some time. SportBild (in German) cited an AS report in October that claimed Bayern interest in Mustafi, whose agent soon thereafter confirmed the report while speaking on Gestiona Radio Valencia (h/t Daily Star).

It makes sense that Bayern would be keen in Mustafi. He's one of Europe's most coveted young defenders, speaks German, has the backing of Joachim Low (an excellent judge of talent), and he has his best years ahead of him.

The fact is, Badstuber is unreliable due to his continually injured state. Benatia hasn't been the player he was at Roma, with Italian journalist Fabrizio Romano claiming (via CalcioMercato.com) that the player misses Italy and hasn't settled well in Germany.

And with Carlo Ancelotti set to coach Bayern next season, Martinez could soon find himself back in midfield: Arturo Vidal hasn't lived up to his billing, and Xabi Alonso was too old to start in the Italian's midfield at Real Madrid two years ago. 

Bayern nonetheless opted to pass on the opportunity to sign Mustafi and will have to wait until summer if they are to get their man. There are arguments for and against this decision, but it could well be a costly mistake not to have bought in the defender.

Firstly, there is the question of utility. Bayern need a center-back, but Mustafi is cup-tied and therefore would not be able to play in the Champions League. This perhaps was the deciding factor for Rummenigge; that defenders good enough to truly improve Bayern were all only able to help the German champions in domestic play, where their lead in the Bundesliga is commanding.

And although it's true that Bayern are runaway favorites to win the league title, it could conceivably happen that they stumble and are caught.

They may have dominated the Bundesliga in the first round, but Bayern's toughest games are—by and large—yet to come.

Bayern face away matches at Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen, as well as a tricky Hertha side with nothing to lose. At home, they may find it difficult even against a tactically sound Borussia Monchengladbach side that beat them 3-1 in December, and a Schalke side full of youngsters just waiting for the chance to prove themselves on a big stage.

Bayern have peaked early in each of their previous two seasons, and injuries have piled up in the spring. If the pattern continues, they could even have trouble winning the Bundesliga.

Mustafi could have been a useful addition to keep things stable at the back. His quality, and critically, his fitness might have made the difference.

Outside the Bundesliga, there is the issue of the DFB-Pokal. Although Bayern beat cup holders Wolfsburg in the fall, there remain some strong teams in the running for the title. Dortmund, Leverkusen and Hertha are good sides, and the threat they pose is compounded in one-off situations such as the German Cup.

Thus, contrary perhaps to popular belief, Mustafi's signing could have been useful to Bayern this spring.

The next issue of importance is to consider the cost it would take to bring Mustafi to the Allianz Arena.

Typically, the January market is an inflated one. Yet the former Everton player is under contract at Valencia until 2019, and therefore would most likely not be sold for less than his release clause stipulates even this summer. Valencia may be having a poor season, but Mustafi has been one of the few bright points.

For a club that has sold the likes of David Villa, David Silva and Juan Mata for a small fortune, it shouldn't be difficult to demand top dollar for a player like Mustafi. This goes especially considering how center-backs have become increasingly coveted as big-money moves for David Luiz, Eliaquim Mangala and others have inflated the market price of center-backs.

What could be different this summer is the number of clubs that are interested in signing Mustafi, which could pose some problems for Bayern.

It hasn't been a good year for German center-backs: Mats Hummels has been very poor, and Benedikt Howedes has been regularly injured.

If Boateng is not fully fit by Euro 2016, it's entirely foreseeable that Mustafi could start for Germany at Euro 2016. If he does start, and if he plays well, it could see demand for his signature spike; especially with Valencia out of the running for a Champions League spot.

Finally, signing Mustafi this January would have helped ease his acclimatization to the Bundesliga and reintroduction to football in Germany. Although a Hamburg youth player, he left his homeland for England at the age of 17 and hasn't returned since.

He'll have a shortened summer break due to the Euros, so a few months in Munich could have helped. Besides, it would be better to end the season with a title or two than to carry on in the situation Valencia face at the moment.

Bayern are still leading candidates to win the trophies Mustafi could have helped them win—the Bundesliga and Pokal. And they may well win the double or more without him.

But if they fall short in either or both cases—and especially if they end up signing Mustafi for €50 million this summer—it should be remembered as a missed opportunity.

@Mr_Bundesliga