Unranked Teams Set to Make Waves in the 2016 NCAA Basketball Tournament
With the start of the NCAA tournament less than six weeks away, the contenders for the 2016 national championship are beginning to come into focus.
However, teams outside the group acknowledged as the cream of the crop could make an impact in a season that features a lot of good teams but no great teams. Those sleeper teams lie outside the Top 25 at the moment, and most of them are still battling just to get into the NCAA tournament. Some of them are capable of doing damage if they get in, though, and we selected 10 unranked teams that could make waves in the NCAA tournament.
The teams are presented in ascending order of their likelihood of winning a few NCAA tournament games, with the team with the most postseason potential featured last.
Michigan Wolverines
1 of 10
Michigan did not look like an NCAA tournament team in its poor performance on Tuesday against Indiana, which blew the Wolverines away 80-67 on Michigan's home court. But Michigan has won four of its past five games and is still in the Big Ten race with a 7-3 conference record. More importantly, they seem to be playing better basketball, the Indiana loss notwithstanding.
Guard Caris LeVert, the team's best player, has missed the past nine games with a lower-leg injury but is expected back soon. That should give him enough time to regain his rhythm before the stretch run. The Wolverines have gone 6-3 without LeVert, but they need him to make the NCAA tournament and have some success when they get there.
Guard Derrick Walton Jr. has picked up his game, averaging 15.4 points over the previous seven games before his mediocre, seven-point performance against Indiana.
The Indiana loss was indicative of Michigan's season. When the Wolverines lose, they lose badly. Every one of Michigan's six losses was by a double-digit margin. When the games are close, though, Michigan finds a way to win. The Wolverines are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less, and that includes victories over Texas and Maryland.
We will know more about Michigan over the next few weeks as four of its remaining eight regular-season games are against teams that are currently ranked, including three games against top-10 teams.
But the Wolverines' good guard play coupled with their knack for winning close games could serve them well if they make it to the NCAA tournament.
Monmouth Hawks
2 of 10
Monmouth is one of several teams from the so-called one-bid conferences capable of pulling off an early NCAA tournament upset, joining UAB, Arkansas-Little Rock, Valparaiso and even Stony Brook as possible giant killers.
But Monmouth (18-5) is the one that has demonstrated the greatest potential for postseason success—that is, if it gets into the NCAA tournament. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com had Monmouth penciled in as a No. 11 seed in his latest mock NCAA tournament bracket, and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has the Hawks as a No. 12 seed. It means Monmouth may be on the outside of the bubble looking in if it doesn't win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament and get an automatic berth.
If it fails to make the field, Monmouth can blame its inexplicable losses to Canisius, Army and Manhattan. But the Hawks demonstrated their capabilities with road victories over UCLA and USC, a win over Notre Dame on a neutral court and a three-point, neutral-court loss to Dayton. When the Hawks are hitting their three-pointers, as they do with regularity, they can be competitive with anyone.
The key to Monmouth's success is Justin Robinson, a 5'8" point guard who is averaging 20.8 points and is making 44.5 percent of his three-point shots.
“His whole team builds confidence off him," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told USA Today after losing to Monmouth. "I’m very, very impressed with him and his team. They’re for real.”
If a game comes down to free throws, don't bet against Monmouth, which is hitting 77.5 percent of its foul shots, ranking third in the country.
Even if Monmouth does not make an impact on the court in the postseason, the Hawks figure to make waves with their inventive bench celebrations after made baskets. (See photo above.)
Gonzaga Bulldogs
3 of 10
Gonzaga is obviously not as good as it has been in recent years. That's why the Bulldogs have dropped out of the Top 25 after being ranked No. 9 in preseason and why they currently reside in second place in the West Coast Conference, behind St. Mary's. They are even in danger of having their run of 17 consecutive appearances in the NCAA tournament come to an end.
But if they make it for the 18th straight season, the presence of two star frontcourt players could make life difficult for foes in the NCAA tournament. So far, the outstanding play of forward Kyle Wiltjer, a preseason All-American, and forward Domantas Sabonis, who is likely to be a first-round NBA draft choice, according to DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.net, has not been enough, because Gonzaga's backcourt has played so poorly.
The Bulldogs have been almost invincible at home over the years, but they have already lost three home games this season, the most home losses in Mark Few's 17 seasons as head coach.
Losing center Przemek Karnowski to season-ending back surgery after just six games did not help, but the loss of guards Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. from last season's team has had a bigger impact. Freshman guard Josh Perkins has had his moments, but neither he nor backcourt partner Eric McClellan has provided the all-around consistency that Bell and Pangos did.
Nonetheless, Gonzaga is still a good team. All five of its losses were close and came against quality opponents. The Bulldogs lost by one point to Texas A&M and BYU, by five points to Arizona and UCLA and by three points to St. Mary's, which overcame a 14-point, second-half deficit to beat Gonzaga on the Gaels' home court.
With Wiltjer averaging 22.0 points and hitting 44.5 percent of his three-pointers and Sabonis averaging 17.1 points and 11.5 boards, Gonzaga can win NCAA tournament games against teams that are unable to exploit its backcourt weakness. Remaining games against SMU, BYU and St. Mary's should show whether the Bulldogs backcourt has improved enough to be a postseason threat.
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California Golden Bears
4 of 10
The Pac-12 has several potential sleepers, including USC, UCLA and Utah. However, the Pac-12 team with the greatest upside and the one best equipped to surprise people at the NCAA tournament is California.
The Bears have two freshmen who are ranked among the top dozen NBA draft prospects by ESPN.com: 6'7" forward Jaylen Brown and 6'11" forward Ivan Rabb. Both have played solid basketball and have had moments of greatness, but neither has been the sensation Cal had hoped. If they start displaying NBA-caliber talent down the stretch and into the postseason, Cal could overwhelm some teams with their talent and athleticism.
The Bears showed some of that talent in their victory over Arizona, but the best demonstration of Cal's capabilities came in a nonconference loss. The Bears had Virginia virtually beaten, holding a seven-point lead with seven minutes left in regulation and a five-point lead with a minute remaining in overtime on the Cavaliers' home court. Brown had 18 points and Rabb had 12 rebounds, but the Bears ended up losing by a point.
Cal beat Arizona without starting point guard Tyrone Wallace, who was the team's leading scorer and assist man when he broke his right hand on Jan. 16. He is expected back late this month and should be available for the stretch run.
Cal has to get to the NCAA tournament before it can do any damage, and with a 14-8 record, including 4-5 in the conference, the Bears are very much a bubble team at the moment. However, with the talent the Bears have in Rabb, Brown and Wallace and the presence of streaky three-point shooter Jordan Mathews, Cal has the ingredients for postseason success.
Cincinnati Bearcats
5 of 10
Cincinnati is not a particularly good team offensively, but the Bearcats can stay close against any opponent in the postseason because of their outstanding defense. They allow opponents to shoot just 39.3 percent from the field and average 8.5 steals per game, preventing even the best foes from running away with a game. And having a chance to win an NCAA tournament game in the closing seconds is all that teams can ask.
Cincinnati's 16-6 record does not seem impressive, but four of those losses were by just two points against pretty good teams: Butler, Iowa State, SMU and Temple, the latter two on the road. The Bearcats have won their share of close games, winning six games decided by six points or less. That includes last week's one-point road victory over Connecticut, which did a world of good for the Bearcats' postseason chances.
Cincinnati lacks the kind of big scorer that is important to postseason success, but it has plenty of backcourt experience in Farad Cobb and Troy Caupain, a pair of juniors who are the team's top scorers.
Cincinnati has played well lately, winning five of its past six games and losing only to Temple on the road in a double-overtime contest. The Bearcats seem to be coming on, and they figure to be in position to win every game late in the contest.
Clemson Tigers
6 of 10
Nobody was paying much attention to Clemson when it started the season 7-6, including losses to Massachusetts and Minnesota, both of whom have losing records at the moment, and a 23-point loss to Georgia.
However, the Tigers have come alive since then, and teams gaining momentum as the postseason approaches are dangerous in the NCAA tournament. At 14-8, Clemson still has work to do to earn an NCAA berth, but the Tigers' 7-3 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference shows how well they are playing now.
Clemson has won seven of its past nine games, and it beat Louisville, Duke and Miami in succession before playing Virginia tough on the road, a game in which Clemson trailed by just two with about three minutes left.
The Tigers have two things working in their favor: First, the toughest part of their ACC schedule is over, with a home game against Virginia being their only remaining contest against a ranked team. Second, forward Jaron Blossomgame is becoming a star, averaging 21.0 points over the past eight games and scoring at least 22 points in each of the last five.
Teams want to be playing their best basketball at the end of the season, and Clemson is trending in that direction.
LSU Tigers
7 of 10
The focus at LSU has been on freshman sensation Ben Simmons all season. He has not been a disappointment, putting up monster numbers all season as he builds his case to be the No. 1 overall selection in this year's NBA draft.
In Tuesday's victory over Auburn, Simmons showed signs of becoming more assertive, which can only help LSU's stretch run. The improving Tigers find themselves alone in second place in the Southeastern Conference, a half-game behind Texas A&M and ahead of Kentucky and South Carolina, among others.
What has been lost in the mania over Simmons is that the Tigers did not become a contender for the SEC title until two key players were added alongside Simmons. Forward Craig Victor II sat out the first nine games as a transfer from Arizona, and guard Keith Hornsby missed the first eight games with a sports hernia. They are the second- and third-leading scorers on the team now, with Victor being the Tigers' second-leading rebounder and Hornsby being their top three-point threat.
LSU is just 14-8 overall but is 10-4 with both Hornsby and Victor in the lineup, and that includes the 18-point victory over Kentucky and the two-point loss to No. 1 Oklahoma, when the Tigers let a 14-point, second-half lead get away.
The Tigers still have work to do to get into the NCAA tournament, but any team with a player as talented as Simmons is a threat to do some damage in the postseason.
Duke Blue Devils
8 of 10
Duke has lost four of its past six games and does not look like a threat to do anything in the postseason. In fact, if the Blue Devils don't step up their play, they may be in danger of not making the NCAA tournament at all. Being in eighth place in the ACC standings does not constitute a safe resting spot for an NCAA tournament bid.
However, a few things suggest better times are ahead, and if the Blue Devils play to their capabilities, they could do some damage in the postseason. After all, they were ranked No. 5 in the Associated Press preseason poll and were ranked No. 9 as recently as Jan. 11.
First of all, Duke's coach is Mike Krzyzewski, and if anyone can figure out how to fix this team, it's Krzyzewski. Even though he missed Tuesday's game with an illness, he will return to push as many buttons as possible to get Duke back on track.
Second, this is a team that relies heavily on freshmen, with half of the six players who see significant playing time being first-year players. Freshmen typically improve as the season goes on, and Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard and Derryck Thornton should make a bigger impact in March than they have so far.
Third, and most important, Duke should get senior forward Amile Jefferson back some time before the regular season ends. He has been out since Dec. 12 with a broken foot, and it is uncertain when he will return. Krzyzewski said on Monday that Jefferson is showing "some progression," according to the Fayetteville Observer. The original prognosis was that he would be out two months, so he could be back by the end of February.
What is certain is that the Blue Devils have missed him. With Jefferson, the Blue Devils were 8-1, losing only to Kentucky and beating Indiana, VCU and Georgetown. Without him, they are 8-5 and struggling.
The 6'9" Jefferson is averaging 11.3 points and 10.4 rebounds this season in his third year as a starter. He provided an inside scoring threat, some muscle in the paint and consistent rebounding, all of which are noticeably absent without him. Duke has been forced to play four perimeter players around center Marshall Plumlee, who is not much of an offensive force. Even the 6'9" Ingram is more of a perimeter player, often being called a guard.
Furthermore, Jefferson's return will help mitigate Duke's biggest weakness: depth. Only six players have been getting meaningful minutes lately, and Jefferson will at least make it a seven-man rotation while giving Krzyzewski a few options.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
9 of 10
Virginia Commonwealth started the season 5-5, and it seemed the loss of coach Shaka Smart was having an immediate negative effect on the program. However, the Rams have now won 12 straight, including a road victory over St. Joseph's, and stand alone atop the Atlantic 10 standings. VCU has not yet played Dayton and has some difficult games ahead, but it seems to be finding its groove under new coach Will Wade.
The 33-year-old Wade was quite familiar with what made the Rams successful, having served as a VCU assistant for four years under Smart before landing the head coaching job at Chattanooga. He was named Southern Conference coach of the year in 2014 and led the Mocs to a 22-10 season last year before returning to VCU as head coach.
The harassing defense that led to success under Smart is still present. The Rams average 9.9 steals per game, which is fourth in the nation. That is slightly better than the 9.5 steals VCU averaged in its final season under Smart and considerably better than the 8.2 steals VCU averaged while reaching the Final Four in 2011.
Four of the five VCU players who were starters at the end of last season are back, with guard Melvin Johnson now the team's star. He, JeQuan Lewis and Korey Billbury are the top three scorers and all are good three-point shooters. Guard Jordan Burgess, a do-everything glue guy, missed seven games with a broken finger before returning Wednesday to play two token minutes. His playing time should increase in the coming games.
This team is probably better than VCU's 2011 Final Four squad, which means postseason success may await the Rams.
Texas Longhorns
10 of 10
Texas started 8-5, and it seemed at that point it might take new coach Shaka Smart several years to put his stamp on the team and turn it into a Big 12 contender.
However, the Longhorns have thrust themselves into the conference title race this season, standing just a game out of first place after winning six of their past seven games. The only loss in that stretch came on the road against Kansas, and it includes victories over Iowa State, West Virginia and Baylor, the latter two on the road. Although the Longhorns are just 15-7 overall, no one in the conference is playing better at the moment. The Dec. 12 victory over North Carolina is what seemed to get Texas headed in the right direction.
What is surprising is that Smart is using a different formula at Texas than the one that brought him acclaim at VCU. The Longhorns rank only 275th nationally in steals per game at 5.3 but have done a good job at taking care of the ball, committing just 10.5 turnovers per contest.
Guard Isaiah Taylor, a preseason all-conference selection, has been particularly careful with the ball, averaging just 1.1 turnovers over the past 11 games and committing no more than two in any of them. He has not been scoring as much the past few games, yet the Longhorns beat West Virginia in Morgantown with Taylor scoring just four points on 0-of-8 shooting from the floor. What was more important is that Taylor did not have a single turnover in that game against West Virginia's ferocious, non-stop defensive pressure.
This team has been improving steadily since Day 1, and that extrapolates into success in the NCAA tournament.
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