Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC on Fox 18 on Saturday is headlined by a possible light heavyweight title eliminator between No. 2-ranked Anthony Johnson (20-5) and No. 4-ranked Ryan Bader (20-4).
Johnson failed in his bid to capture the light heavyweight gold at UFC 187 against Daniel Cormier but rebounded with a knockout victory over Jimi Manuwa. The win moved him back into contention.
Bader has won five straight and is coming off a decision victory over former champion Rashad Evans. One more win will put him in the catbird seat without much argument as to who deserves the next crack at the 205-pound championship.
How does this fight break down?
Let's find out who walks away as the top contender in the UFC on Fox 18 main event between Johnson and Bader.
Striking
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While Bader has made strides in the stand-up department, this is a clear area of advantage for Johnson.
Bader has added variety to his striking and better defense. The latter will be crucial to his success against the power of Rumble.
Johnson has finished seven of his nine light heavyweight bouts by KO/TKO. That's an incredible finish rate no matter the weight division. Rumble finishes with punches and kicks. He is not one-dimensional, and that puts Bader in danger regardless of the situation.
Bader's improvement means he should be more competitive on the feet and have more tools to counter Johnson's dynamic finishing prowess. However, it does not erase the deficit he faces against Johnson on the feet.
Edge: Johnson
Grappling
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It should not come as a shock to see Bader get the edge in the grappling. He is an All-American and has continually utilized wrestling as the biggest part of his game plans.
But do not sleep on Johnson's wrestling.
Rumble's fan-pleasing style and heat-seeking KO ability outshine his wrestling credentials, but he is fully capable of competing against Bader both offensively and defensively. He even scored a takedown against Daniel Cormier at UFC 187.
FightMetric statistics has Johnson at 60 percent in takedown accuracy and 78 percent takedown defense.
Bader has the edge, but it is not as steep as what one may initially think.
Edge: Bader
Submissions
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It is really difficult to give Johnson the edge in a category where he has never excelled. Through 25 career professional bouts, he has never recorded a single submission victory.
Bader has four to his credit with the most recent in 2014. He has shown more willingness to seek out a submission should the opportunity present itself.
Neither fighter is a defensive wonder in this department. Both Bader and Johnson have left their necks vulnerable to chokes in their career. Johnson's last three losses have all come by way of rear-naked choke after his opponents (Daniel Cormier, Vitor Belfort and Josh Koscheck) have smothered him. Bader is certainly capable of replicating that this weekend.
Bader holds the advantage by default.
Edge: Bader
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X-Factors
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Bader's X-Factor: Moving Forward
If Bader fights while backing up, he will lose—probably in devastating fashion.
All of Bader's success will have to come from moving forward. He must force Johnson to fight with his back against the cage, which will negate some of Johnson's power. When Rumble is given space, he is one of the most devastating fighters in the sport.
Bader has to be the one creating pressure.
Johnson's X-Factor: Stamina
Rumble's biggest detriment throughout his career has been his cardio. This is a five-round bout, so his stamina may play a huge role against Bader.
There is somewhat of a blueprint to beat Johnson, and it is something Bader can execute. Wrestle, wait and take advantage of a tired Johnson.
If Johnson can defend the takedown attempts, he can last as long as he wants. If this becomes a striking contest at a distance, Rumble will have no issue going 25 minutes, but it likely won't last that long if that is the case.
Prediction
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Bader will have to create pressure to beat Johnson, but that will also create openings for Johnson. Bader's last two losses have ended when he was caught rushing forward.
Johnson's underrated wrestling will be the key to ending the fight early. He will shut down Bader's early takedown attempts to force the fight to remain on the feet.
Bader's striking cannot match Johnson's, and that is the end-all of this matchup. Once the wrestling is negated, the pendulum swings fully in favor of the former title contender. It will take a round to get his timing, but Johnson will score another vicious knockout.
Johnson scores a knockout to re-establish himself as the No. 1 contender in the division.
Prediction: Johnson defeats Bader by KO in the second round.
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