Ovehyped NCAA Basketball Freshmen Not Yet Ready for the NBA

When a freshman arrives at college as a highly rated prospect, he is expected to have an immediate impact and likely turn pro after a single productive season, the so-called one-and-done player. If a player does not live up to his billing, the failure often lies with the organization determining his rating, not with the player, who feels the brunt of the criticism.

Production as a freshman does not necessarily correlate to NBA success, as pro scouts consider a player's long-term potential when assessing his draft status. A player with an NBA body who is still learning the game may do little for his college team in his first season, but may be coveted by NBA teams.

That is the challenge for a freshman that is considering turning pro after one season. He must determine whether he will be drafted early enough to maximize his earning power and be given a chance to get immediate playing time, or if he is better off remaining in college to sharpen his skills and become more attractive to NBA scouts.

LSU forward Ben Simmons is the only freshman who looks like a can't-miss pro this season.

A lot can change between now and the end of the college basketball season, but we picked out 10 freshmen who were highly rated recruits that better think twice about turning pro after one season. In each case, we listed the player's national ranking as a prospect in the 2015 class by creating an average of three recruiting services: ESPN.com, Scout and Rivals. For example, if a player was ranked as the nation's No. 1 recruit by ESPN.com, No. 2 by Scout and No. 4 by Rivals, his ranking average would be 2.3.

Every player listed here was a McDonald's All-American except for Kentucky's Skal Labissiere, who was not eligible for selection.

When assessing a player's NBA draft prospects we enlisted the aid of three services: ESPN.com, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net.

Jaylen Brown, California

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 3.7

Jaylen Brown, a 6'7" small forward, has the athleticism and body type the NBA is looking for, but he has not been as productive as expected during his freshman year in Berkeley. Of course, it was nearly impossible to live up to the enormous expectations placed on Brown.

Ranked among the nation's top four recruits by all three recruiting services, Brown was considered a godsend at Cal. The addition of Brown and Ivan Rabb, another top-10 recruit, persuaded Associated Press voters to rank Cal No. 14 in its preseason poll, even though the Bears went 7-11 in the Pac-12 the previous season.

Brown has been solid, but not spectacular, which can also be said about Cal as whole—the team has been unranked for most of the season. Brown has only been marginally overhyped and remains a budding star. He is averaging 15.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, and even displayed some versatility when he ran the point and recorded seven assists in a win over Arizona.

However, he has not stood out as a player who can score anytime he wants, which is what small forwards are expected to do at the next level. Plus, Brown's outside shot is still not NBA quality. He has taken a lot of three-point shots, but made only 27.6 percent of them.

Brown is still expected to be among the top five picks if he turns pro after this season, but that could change if his production does not pick up. The NBA is willing to wait if a big man shows potential, but small forwards are expected to see court time immediately if they are a top-five selection.

Brown has a limited offensive repertoire at the moment, depending on his athleticism to create looks. He should play another year or two of college ball to improve his outside shot and all-around game. However, if his draft status remains as high as it is now, he undoubtedly will leave. 

Thomas Bryant, Indiana

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 25

It's unfair to say Bryant has been overhyped because he has been a key component of an Indiana team that has risen to No. 19 in the AP rankings. In fact, ranking as the No. 25 recruit in the class, Bryant is likely exceeding expectations. He is averaging 11.9 points on 71.6 percent shooting to go along with 5.4 rebounds in just 22.4 minutes of action per game.

However, at this point, the 6'11" Bryant is the kind of big man likely to get drafted late in the first round by an established team that will have him ride the bench for quite a while. If he remains in college to hone his raw skills, his draft stock could rise considerably, possibly allowing him to be a lottery pick. NBADraft.net and DraftExpress list Bryant as a mid-to-late-first-round pick in the 2017 draft.

Bryant's length and intensity have enabled him to be productive as a freshman, and the NBA loves those two traits. However, he has not developed much of an offensive game, and he needs to improve his mobility. Bryant can address those shortcomings by sticking around the Hoosiers program.

It is possible Bryant's stock will rise over the next few months, especially if he performs well in the NCAA tournament. If that happens, he may feel obligated to turn pro.

Ivan Rabb, California

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 6.7

Ivan Rabb was placed in the unfortunate situation of being labeled the local savior. Rabb is from Oakland, which is right next door to Berkeley, California, and when he and fellow prized recruit Jaylen Brown committed to Cal an immediate turnaround was expected for the Golden Bears.

By no means has the 6'11" Rabb been a flop as a freshman, but he has not been spectacular either. Coaches would like Rabb to be more assertive, as he has hit 64.2 percent of his field-goal attempts and can score from the block or out to 15 feet. He is averaging 12.6 points and 8.4 rebounds, which are solid numbers, and he can maneuver well in the paint. However, he seems to disappear at times and does not dominate anyone inside.

Rabb would have to play power forward or center in the NBA, and he's not currently strong enough to handle physical NBA play.

He could do with another year or two of college ball to develop his body, increase his offensive repertoire and improve his defense, which is not great. However, he is currently seen as a 2016 lottery pick, so it may be difficult for him to stick around.

Malik Newman, Mississippi State

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 9.3

Mississippi State guard Malik Newman has one major problem when it comes to his NBA status: his team is lousy. 

Nine of the 10 American players taken among the first 13 picks of the 2015 NBA draft played on teams that finished the regular season ranked among the nation's top five. The only American players taken in the first round that did not play on an NCAA tournament team were Cameron Payne, whose Murray State team went 29-6, Rashad Vaughn, who played on a UNLV team that went 18-15 and beat Arizona, and Chris McCullough, whose Syracuse team was ineligible for the postseason.

The NBA likes winners, and although Newman is averaging 13.4 points, has made 41.7 percent of his three-pointers and scored a season-high 25 points in Saturday's win over Mississippi, he can't overcome the fact that Mississippi State is going nowhere this season.

The Bulldogs have had a number of close losses, but that does not disguise the fact that they are 8-11 overall and 1-6 in the Southeastern Conference. Ben Howland is in his first season as head coach at Mississippi State, and it may take him a few years to make the Bulldogs a winner. Newman would be smart to hang around Starkville until he does.

Antonio Blakeney, LSU

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 16.3

Guard Antonio Blakeney was the other prized recruit LSU landed alongside Ben Simmons, and he is on display when pro scouts come to observe the Australian forward. However, he has not done enough to distract their attention from Simmons.

Blakeney has been coming off the bench recently, and most of his productive games have come in blowout wins. Blakeney started the season well, averaging 18.0 points and 5.3 rebounds over the Tigers' first four games. However, his averages have dipped to 9.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists, and he is averaging 9.1 points in conference games.

Perhaps the biggest problem is that he is hitting just 29.5 percent of his three-point attempts, and unless a player is an outstanding distributor with blazing speed, a backcourt player needs to be able to shoot if he wants to impress the NBA folks. 

The Tigers offense is built around Simmons and senior Keith Hornsby this season. Neither player will be around next year, and junior guard Tim Quarterman may be gone too. Blakeney should become one of the team's focal points next season, which should allow him to elevate both his game and his NBA stock.

Caleb Swanigan, Purdue

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 14

Caleb Swanigan's statistics look good, as he's averaging 10.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. The 6'9" forward is even hitting 32 percent of his three-point shots, showing some range for a big man, and he has had a hand in lifting Purdue to a No. 21 national ranking.

However, a closer look at Swanigan's numbers paint a different picture—most of his big games came in blowout wins against overmatched opponents. His one outstanding game against a ranked team was his 25-point, 11-rebound effort against Butler, although Butler's current 2-5 record in the Big East suggests the Bulldogs may not be as good as originally perceived.

Swanigan is averaging 8.4 points in Big Ten games, and if you eliminate the games against conference bottom-feeders Penn State, Rutgers and Illinois, his conference scoring average drops to 5.6 points per game. Players need to produce against top-flight competition before declaring themselves NBA-ready.

Of course, the NBA looks at things besides scoring, but none of the three sites used in our assessment project Swanigan to be a first-round pick in 2016. NBADraft.net and DraftExpress don't list him as a first-rounder in 2017 either.

Swanigan obviously has some work to do to impress NBA scouts despite his lofty recruiting ranking.

Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 12

Despite his high recruiting ranking and the attention he receives as a starter for Kentucky, guard Isaiah Briscoe does not seem to be coveted by NBA teams. None of the three draft sites project him as a first-round pick in 2016, and NBADraft.net places him as a mid-second-round selection in 2017.

Fellow freshman guard Jamal Murray looks like he is ready for the jump to the NBA, and he is projected as a lottery pick. That's not the case for Briscoe, who has a few issues to address.

His averages of 9.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists are not great numbers, but they are decent on a talented team like Kentucky, which prides itself on balance. A bigger problem is that Briscoe is hitting just 16 percent of his three-point shots (4-of-25); that is not the kind of shooting the NBA is looking for out of a wing player. Perhaps more indicative of Briscoe's shooting woes is that he is making just 34.5 percent of his free throws, a remarkably low figure for a top-flight guard.

The position he plays may be another problem. Briscoe came to Kentucky as a point guard, but he has had to play off the ball most of the time with sophomore Tyler Ulis running the show.

Perhaps Briscoe would get more opportunities to show his capabilities as a point guard if he remained in college for another year or two. However, with highly touted point guard De'Aaron Fox arriving at Kentucky next season, Briscoe may not get the chance.

Cheick Diallo, Kansas

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 7

There was much hand-wringing at Kansas when the NCAA delayed its decision to clear 6'9" forward Cheick Diallo to play until after the season began. The expectation was that Diallo would be a major cog in a Jayhawks frontcourt that had depth issues.

Diallo finally made his college debut in Kansas' sixth game, and he collected 13 points, six rebounds and three blocks in just 16 minutes. That performance suggested Diallo would make a major impact.

However, that first game was misleading, likely because it was against Loyola-Maryland. Diallo has seen limited playing time against quality opponents, and he has not played at all against some of the Jayhawks' toughest conference foes. His averages of 9.4 minutes, 4.4 points and 2.7 rebounds were not what Kansas fans expected when Diallo received the go-ahead to play.

Being ineligible for the first five games may have impeded his progress, and perhaps he has not caught up.

DraftExpress still has Diallo projected as the No. 21 pick in the 2016 draft, but the other two sites do not have him nearly that high. He is likely to slip further in everyone's mind if his playing time remains limited.

It sounds a lot like the path Cliff Alexander took last season. A highly rated recruit, the 6'8" Alexander averaged a disappointing 7.1 points and 5.3 rebounds as a freshman last season. He then declared for the NBA draft after having NCAA eligibility issues late in the season. He went undrafted and has scarcely played as a rookie with the Portland Trail Blazers.

Diallo's fate might be worse if he declares for the NBA draft after this season.

Chase Jeter, Duke

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 14

A player ranked among the nation's top 15 prospects is expected to have an immediate impact, or at least play meaningful minutes. It has not happened for Chase Jeter in his first season at Duke. 

He was one of four highly rated Duke freshmen, but while the other three have made contributions, Jeter is still at the starting gate. The 6'10" forward has played in only 17 of Duke's 21 games and is averaging 7.7 minutes, 1.6 points and 1.7 rebounds.

Starting power forward Amile Jefferson has missed the past 12 games with an ankle injury, and his absence was expected to provide more playing time for Jeter, considering the Blue Devils' lack of frontcourt depth. However, head coach Mike Krzyzewski has not seen fit to give Jeter more court time, as his only significant minutes have come in blowouts. He has not scored in Duke's last seven games, and did not play at all in two of those contests. 

It's been said many times, but it is still true: big men develop at different rates. Jeter could still transform himself into an NBA prospect, but he is not considered draft-worthy at the moment. There is no choice for Jeter to make regarding his pro status. He will remain in college hoping to improve and become the player he was projected to be when he arrived at Duke.

Skal Labissiere, Kentucky

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Average 2015 Class Ranking: 1.3

No player faces a bigger decision about his future than Kentucky forward Skal Labissiere.

Big things were expected of the skilled 6'11" forward when he arrived in Lexington as one of the nation's top recruits. He was named to the Southeastern Conference's preseason all-conference first team and was ranked the 11th-best player in the country by ESPN.com in early November.

Things simply have not worked out as anticipated; Labissiere is averaging 7.5 points and 3.1 rebounds and is no longer in the starting lineup.

Labissiere had 11 points, three rebounds and three blocks while playing 20 minutes in the Jan. 21 victory over Arkansas. However, that showing did not convince head coach John Calipari that Labissiere deserved more playing time; the freshman played just four minutes and had no points and no rebounds in Saturday's game against Vanderbilt.

Big men develop at different rates, and the NBA may be looking at what Labissiere can become in the future when deciding whether to draft him. His skill set and agility for his size are still impressive, and statistics don't mean a lot to NBA scouts. Once projected to be a top-five NBA draft pick in 2016 by virtually outlet, Labissiere is still listed as a lottery pick by ESPN.com and DraftExpress, although NBADraft.net projects him as the No. 10 pick of the 2017 draft.

Unless he improves a lot in a hurry, Labissiere can expect his draft stock to continue to fall. If he enters the 2016 draft, he can count on seeing little playing time in the NBA next season and may be sent to the Development League. If he remains at Kentucky, where he will get increased playing time and can improve at his own rate, he can lift his NBA stock considerably.

Statistics are current through games played Jan. 26.