The Most Difficult Remaining Game for Every AP Top 25 NCAA Basketball Team
With the way the 2015-16 college basketball season is going, every remaining game for every AP Top 25 team is going to be a challenge to win, but each team has (at least) one opponent left that really stands out as a loss waiting to happen.
Many of these nominees come down to a matter of simply having to play a good team in a tough arena for visitors. Best of luck to any Big 12 team that still has to travel to...well, pretty much anywhere in conference but especially to Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia or Iowa State.
Many of these are also perceived matchup nightmares. Maybe the opposing team has a height advantage, a perimeter edge, a severe mismatch at one of the positions, a free-throw shooting disparity or any number of other data points that don't bode well.
Some squads even have to deal with a matchup nightmare against a great team in a tough location, and we already feel sorry for them.
Who on your favorite team's remaining schedule are you most worried about facing?
25. Indiana Hoosiers
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The Game: Indiana @ Michigan State (February 14)
Indiana has been rolling since the early December blowout at the hands of Duke. In fact, the Hoosiers are 11-0 since the ACC/B1G Challenge and sit in first place in the Big Ten thanks to a much-improved defense.
However, they haven't really played anyone. Aside from a neutral-court win over Notre Dame—a game that the Fighting Irish led by 16 with 15 minutes remaining, despite having one of their worst three-point shooting performances of the season—Indiana has built this entire winning streak on the backs of teams that probably won't make the NCAA tournament.
Michigan State, though? That's a team that will be in the Big Dance, and it has the best three-point defense in the conference—which is important against an Indiana team that makes at least 10 three-pointers in a game more often than it does not.
Moreover, who on Indiana will stick with Denzel Valentine? Maybe Troy Williams can hang with him, but that leaves Thomas Bryant on an island against two Michigan State bigs. Unless O.G. Anunoby (6'8" freshman wing) can give the Hoosiers a lot of quality minutes, it does not look like a great matchup, particularly on the road.
24. South Carolina Gamecocks
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The Game: South Carolina @ Texas A&M (February 6)
South Carolina does not play at Florida, Kentucky, LSU or Vanderbilt this season, but even if the Gamecocks had to travel to face all of those teams, there's no question that Texas A&M would be their toughest remaining foe.
Not only are the Aggies clearly the best team in the SEC, but it's simply not a good pairing for South Carolina.
For starters, South Carolina wants to run and struggles when it can't. The Gamecocks' lone loss of the season was in a 65-possession game against Alabama; they never really pulled away from Clemson in an ugly 62-possession game and needed a late 11-0 run with Stefan Moody injured to come back against Ole Miss to win in overtime in a game with 64 possessions in regulation. They want a game with at least 72 possessions, and Texas A&M is one of the slower-paced teams in the SEC.
Moreover, the Gamecocks played all three of those games on the road, which could be an indication that this one-loss team doesn't travel well.
And South Carolina struggles to defend the three. Alabama went 13-of-28 from downtown in SC's one loss, and Hofstra hit 17 of 34 triples in the toughest nonconference game of the Gamecocks' season. Though the Aggies aren't that reliant on the long ball, they move the ball well and have seven regulars who are capable of draining a three.
Not only will this be a loss for South Carolina, but it might get ugly if Danuel House picks this one to break out of what has felt like an eternal slump over the past two months.
23. Kentucky Wildcats
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The Game: Kentucky @ Kansas (January 30)
Once billed as the ultimate nonconference showdown of the entire season, this one has lost a bit of its luster with both teams dropping multiple games in the past couple of weeks.
But it's Kentucky and Kansas. Who cares if they're No. 1 and No. 2 in the nation? They're the top two on the all-time wins list, so there's plenty to get excited about in this one.
The biggest problem for Kentucky is that the game will take place at the Phog, which is practically a death sentence for any team.
Assuming the Jayhawks beat Texas on Saturday (probably not a safe assumption, given how ridiculous the past few weeks have been, but humor me), Kansas will enter this game with a 200-9 record at home under Bill Self, according to Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. And by my count, the Jayhawks are 98-5 at home in Big 12 play under Self. That's just downright ridiculous.
So, not only do the Wildcats need to try to win in the most unwinnable arena in the country, but they need to do so while at a talent disadvantage.
If this is one of those nights where Derek Willis shows up in a big way, great. Otherwise, Kentucky has no bench whatsoever, because Skal Labissiere is borderline unusable at this point. Since mid-December, he has averaged 12.5 minutes, 3.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.8 fouls per game. Charles Matthews hasn't scored since January 2, and Dominique Hawkins hasn't played since then because of an ankle injury.
So, it's pretty much starters or bust for Kentucky against a Kansas team that is willing and able to go deep into its bench. And aside from maybe Marcus Lee over Hunter Mickelson, I'm not sure there's a starter on Kentucky who is (currently) clearly better than his counterpart on Kansas.
If Frank Mason defends Tyler Ulis the way he did Buddy Hield (and not the way he did Jawun Evans on Tuesday night), Kansas might win in a rout.
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22. Purdue Boilermakers
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The Game: Purdue @ Maryland (February 6)
If you enjoy frontcourt battles, there might not be a better one this entire season.
In Purdue's corner, we have A.J. Hammons, Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas and Vince Edwards. And in Maryland's corner, we have Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, Damonte Dodd and Jake Layman.
I don't know if Haas and Dodd will actually make it to the NBA, but that's an unfair amount of professional-level talent standing 6'7" or taller.
But while the frontcourts figure to play to a draw, the backcourt disparity should be a huge advantage for the Terrapins.
Melo Trimble is a surefire first-round pick this summer (if the sophomore declares), and Rasheed Sulaimon is a former McDonald's All-American who is probably at least worth a late second-round flier. But the Boilermakers don't have a single guard right now who is likely to play in the NBA one day, and it shows in their turnovers and three-point shooting.
Unless this is one of the many games this season where Maryland insists on playing just bad enough to not lose (see: Rider, Penn State, Northwestern, etc.), Trimble and Co. ought to win this home tilt with some room to spare.
21. USC Trojans
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The Game: USC @ Arizona (February 14)
It's the rematch of the four-overtime game from two weekends ago, and who knows if Arizona's most important player from that game will even be back. Allonzo Trier scored 25 points while playing much of that game with a broken hand that has a recovery timetable ending right around when this one tips off.
Whether the star freshman guard is back or not, Arizona figures to be a pesky nemesis for the Trojans in Tucson.
Two areas of the game figure to favor the Wildcats.
The first is their three-point defense. USC has been one of the most accurate three-point-shooting teams in the country this season at 41.1 percent, but Arizona's perimeter defense has been solid. Even in a 60-minute game, USC only made nine triples the first time around, as Elijah Stewart was the only Trojan who could find his stroke.
And though Arizona misses Trier on offense, it's doing just fine on defense without him. Among Wildcats who have logged at least 20 minutes this season, Trier actually ranks last on the roster in D-rating and defensive box plus/minus, according to Sports-Reference, so USC might have even more difficulty getting open looks in the rematch.
Area No. 2 is rebounding. Arizona has out-rebounded all but one opponent this season, and it was just minus-one on the glass in that outlier against Gonzaga. Thanks to the best defensive rebounding percentage in the country, the Wildcats have averaged a plus-12.1 edge on the glass this season. They were plus-nine in the first game against USC, and that was with Ryan Anderson having easily his worst game of the year.
If Anderson comes to play in this one, if Kaleb Tarczewski keeps playing as well as he has since returning from the foot injury (13.5 points and 11.3 rebounds over the last four games) and if Kadeem Allen and Justin Simon can make life miserable for USC's guards on offense, Arizona will have its revenge.
20. Duke Blue Devils
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The Game: Duke @ North Carolina (February 17)
Do I even need to justify this one? It's a road game against the best team in the country that just so happens to also be Duke's most loathed rival.
In addition to the years of mutual hatred between these schools, the Blue Devils simply aren't built to take down the Tar Heels.
Sure, like every Duke game in the past three decades, the guards could get red-hot from downtown and drop 100 on a North Carolina team that isn't a big fan of playing defense, but that's about the only chance Duke has to win.
If Amile Jefferson is back for the Blue Devils, maybe this changes a bit, but I expect this game to play out like that epic battle against Syracuse from a couple of years ago, in which Duke attempted 36 three-pointers and the Orange barely even bothered trying to score from outside the paint. Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and Isaiah Hicks are way too much for Marshall Plumlee to handle, so Duke will need to trade threes for twos as often as possible.
Maybe the Blue Devils keep it interesting by shooting 50 percent like they did against Notre Dame. However, if they instead decide to mimic the most recent loss to Syracuse by shooting 27 percent from downtown, this could be a bloodbath.
19. Iowa State Cyclones
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The Game: Iowa State @ Kansas (March 5)
To put it lightly, Iowa State's defense is not great.
The Cyclones aren't nearly as porous as Duke or Butler, but they aren't doing a whole lot to slow down the opposition. Really, the only reason they aren't giving up more than 74.4 points per game is because they're No. 1 in the nation in defensive free-throw rate, holding opponents to just 9.1 points per game from the charity stripe.
But while the national average is 34.5 percent, opposing teams are shooting better than 36.0 percent from three against Iowa State this season. That's not a great track record to take into Lawrence to face a Jayhawks team that is shooting better than 43.0 percent from downtown this season.
Granted, in upsetting the No. 1 team in the country Monday, the Cyclones allowed Oklahoma to make 17 three-pointers. This team is plenty good enough on offense to overcome its defensive deficiencies.
Keep in mind those numbers on Kansas from Kentucky's slide, though. Simply overcoming deficiencies isn't going to cut it against a team that is 98-5 at home in conference play over the past 12 years. Taking that weakness on three-point defense into the Phog is like going swimming in shark-infested waters with an exposed wound.
And while Kansas has lacked the proverbial fire in its eyes lately, if this season finale determines whether the Jayhawks extend their streak of consecutive Big 12 regular-season titles to 12, you better believe they'll play with some passion.
18. Butler Bulldogs
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The Game: Butler @ Villanova (February 20)
Villanova was a mess in the first game between these teams. Daniel Ochefu spent most of the game in foul trouble and barely made an impact (six points, five rebounds, one block, five turnovers). Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Jenkins both struggled to find their shot, which left Josh Hart as the only viable offensive weapon. Meanwhile, Kellen Dunham hit some triples, and Villanova had no answer for Roosevelt Jones.
Yet, the Wildcats won by five on the road. Imagine what they might do to Butler at home if all of those things aren't working against them against in the rematch.
The problem for Butler is defense. The Bulldogs rank 154th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is by far the worst among all currently ranked teams. In losses to a Providence team that really only has three viable offensive weapons, they gave up 81 points in a 66-possession game and 71 points in a 65-possession game.
The only reason Villanova didn't blow them out of the water the first time around is because Ochefu hardly got to play in the paint and because it was one of those games where Nova couldn't buy a three-pointer (4-of-15).
To have any chance in this one, Butler is going to need all hands on deck. Tyler Lewis has a grand total of four points and three assists in Butler's last three games. That's not going to cut it. Neither is Andrew Chrabascz struggling like he has for most of Big East play. If it's just Dunham and Jones against the world, they'll get eaten alive.
17. Louisville Cardinals
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The Game: Louisville @ Georgia Tech (January 23)
Louisville's remaining schedule is brutal. There are two games each against Duke and Virginia, road games against Miami, Pitt and Notre Dame and home games against North Carolina and Syracuse.
So, naturally, the toughest remaining game for the Cardinals is at (11-7) Georgia Tech.
Wait, what?
Louisville absolutely thrives on forcing turnovers, blocking shots and crashing the offensive glass, but the Yellow Jackets are more equipped to combat that attack than any other ACC team. They rank 11th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, 14th in offensive block percentage and 34th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Also, Georgia Tech desperately needs this win if it is to have any hope of making the tournament. Wins over Virginia, VCU and Arkansas are nice, but losses to Virginia Tech and East Tennessee State leave this tournament resume up a creek without a paddle. A win over Louisville, though, could flip the script.
The only question is whether Georgia Tech will actually be able to do more than avoid mistakes on offense. It's one thing to not commit turnovers and not have shots blocked, but putting the ball in the hoop has occasionally eluded the Yellow Jackets this season. But if Adam Smith is making three-pointers—he's averaging 4.6 made per game in ACC play—they'll have a decent shot at the upset.
16. Providence Friars
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The Game: Providence @ Georgetown (January 30)
Providence has three talented players in Kris Dunn, Ben Bentil and Rodney Bullock. That trio has scored nearly two-thirds of Providence's points this season.
Unfortunately, those three aren't enough against Georgetown.
In case you didn't watch Georgetown's upset of Xavier on Tuesday night, let's just say the game was physical. It was one of those battles where some sort of on-court fracas felt inevitable, but the clock thankfully ran out before the teams came to blows.
And that has been Georgetown basketball for the past few seasons. On average, there have been 42.2 fouls called and 49.0 free-throws attempted in Hoyas games this year. With eight guys averaging at least 17 minutes per game, they aren't worried about whistles.
But Providence needs to be.
Dunn has had his fair share of foul trouble in his college career—most notably in the NCAA tournament game against Dayton last year. Bullock hasn't fouled out of a game yet this season, but he has committed at least three fouls in 14 of Providence's 19 games. If either of those guys is forced to the bench with foul trouble in this one, it's pretty much game over.
Also, Georgetown has one of the best two-point defenses in the country, while Providence has one of the worst three-point offenses in the country. The Friars have struggled to score against lesser opponents and might be lucky to reach 60 in this one.
15. Miami Hurricanes
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The Game: Miami @ Notre Dame (March 2)
To play its best, Miami needs to get to the free-throw line. In their 13 wins, the Hurricanes have averaged 26.3 free-throw attempts. In their three losses, they're only getting 13.3 attempts per game.
Well, Notre Dame doesn't commit many fouls, ranking 18th in the nation in defensive free-throw rate. Granted, that's largely because the Fighting Irish don't put forth a whole lot of effort on defense, but Miami loves to seek out contact and won't find much in this game.
And Miami is not equipped to slow down the most efficient offense in the country. The Hurricanes' perimeter defense has improved considerably since the first month of the season, but they don't force many turnovers and are prone to giving up a lot of three-pointers. On Saturday, Clemson finished its 11-point win over Miami with more made three-pointers (seven) than turnovers committed (six).
In South Bend against one of the most turnover-averse offenses in the country, we could see Notre Dame tally three times as many threes as turnovers.
Unless this is one of those games where Angel Rodriguez simply puts the team on his back—which hasn't happened much this season—it's unlikely that Miami will have enough offensive firepower to win this road game.
13. Baylor Bears
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The Game: Baylor @ West Virginia (February 6)
Any Big 12 team that still has a road game remaining against West Virginia can just go ahead and mark that down as an absolute nightmare.
But the Bears better watch out in Morgantown, because they have some revenge coming their way. Less than nine minutes into last year's game at West Virginia, Baylor was up 23-3, and the Mountaineers never recovered.
A few key things have changed for both teams.
On Baylor's side of the fence, Kenny Chery is gone. The first and foremost concern against Press Virginia is taking care of the ball, and in three games against WVU last year, the senior point guard committed just six turnovers in 92 minutes.
Now, the Bears have Lester Medford running the show, and though his ball control has improved drastically since the beginning of the year, he hasn't faced a defense like this yet.
Also, West Virginia is simply much better on both ends of the court now. Last year, the Mountaineers needed to force turnovers, snare offensive rebounds and capitalize on fast-break opportunities, because they had no half-court offense or defense. They still thrive in those three areas of the game, but they are exponentially better at defending the three and converting inside the arc (loss to Texas notwithstanding.)
It's going to be a fun, brutally physical game, but the Mountaineers will protect their home court in this one.
13. Virginia Cavaliers
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The Game: Virginia @ Louisville (January 30)
If we learned anything from last season, it's that this is going to be quite the rock fight. Virginia won last year's home game against Louisville by a score of 52-47, and Louisville returned the favor with a 59-57 victory in the season finale.
Though the rosters have changed considerably, the strategies and styles haven't. Heck, if anything, Louisville has become even more slow-paced and physical than last year.
The things to watch out for in this one are what happens when Louisville misses shots and Virginia takes shots.
Beginning with the latter, Virginia has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Cavaliers don't commit turnovers and don't have shots blocked, which—if you'll recall from Louisville's slide—are two areas of the game where the Cardinals have caused major problems for the opposition this season.
But even if you manage to get a shot off against this team, Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage. It's no accident that the Cardinals held Pitt to 41 points last week. Every possession is a battle against this defense—which is something we've grown accustomed to saying about Virginia over the past few years.
However, Virginia's defense hasn't been that great this season. The Cavaliers miss having a guy like Akil Mitchell or Darion Atkins down low to make life tough for the opponent. The last two years, they ranked in the top seven in the nation in defensive two-point field-goal percentage at 40.1 percent and 42.1 percent. This year, they're at almost the national average at 47.7 percent.
When Louisville does miss shots, though, the Cardinals are No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, so they should get multiple opportunities on a lot of possessions.
Don't expect a lot of points, but expect Louisville to finish this game with slightly more of them.
12. Arizona Wildcats
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The Game: Arizona @ California (January 24)
Don't look now, but Arizona might be on the verge of making one heck of a run. The Wildcats don't play at Oregon or Oregon State this season, they have already played their road games against Arizona State, UCLA and USC, and their toughest remaining just got easier with California announcing Tuesday afternoon that Tyrone Wallace is out for the next four to six weeks with a broken hand.
Yet, that still looks like the most likely spot for a slip-up.
The Golden Bears are desperate for a big win here. Not only have they been targeting Arizona all year long as the team that needs to be dethroned if anyone else is going to win this conference, but they have fallen on some hard times with three straight losses prior to the news of Wallace's injury. If there's any fight left in this team, Cal will come out harder for this one than any game yet this season.
As far as the personnel matchup is concerned, California has the best two-point defense in the country, and Arizona does not rely much on the long ball outside of the obligatory five to six attempts per game from Gabe York. Though Cal will miss Wallace's ability to score and lead on offense, his injury has no effect on the ability of the big men to contest everything within 12 feet of the hoop.
(For what it's worth, Wallace had been quietly underperforming for more than a month. In his last nine games, he has averaged 12.4 points on 11.0 field-goal attempts with 3.2 turnovers per game. We could see a "Duke improving after losing Rasheed Sulaimon" effect here, as more looks for Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird might actually be a good thing for California.)
11. Michigan State Spartans
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The Game: Michigan State @ Purdue (February 9)
This is crazy talk just hours after losing a home game to Nebraska, but that's the wake-up call that sparks a fire in the Spartans the rest of the way. With both games against Iowa out of the way and no road game against Maryland on the schedule, I'm not convinced Michigan State suffers another loss during the regular season.
If it does happen, though, the Spartans are most likely to fall in this road game against Purdue.
Is Michigan State's frontcourt good enough and big enough to go to war with Purdue? The only comparable front line that Matt Costello and Co. have faced this season was Louisville's, and even though Chinanu Onuaku only played 16 minutes because of foul trouble, the Spartans had trouble getting much going inside.
And sorry, Louisville fans, but Purdue's frontcourt is even bigger and badder. If the Spartans couldn't score on Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang, best of luck against A.J. Hammons, Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan.
Michigan State does have some serious backcourt X-factors in Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Eron Harris. However, only five of the Boilermakers' 19 opponents this season have shot better than 33.3 percent from long range against them, and Michigan State has oscillated between being red-hot and ice-cold. In 11 games since December 5, the Spartans have shot .500 or better three times and worse than .270 four times.
If they shoot anything like they did against the Hawkeyes (7-of-34 between the two losses), how are they going to score against one of the best defenses in the country?
10. Texas A&M Aggies
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The Game: Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt (February 4)
I'm all in on Texas A&M.
The Aggies have two excellent ball-handlers in the starting lineup in Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins, and if you don't think that's important, ask 2015 Duke (Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook), 2014 Connecticut (Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright) and 2013 Louisville (Peyton Siva and Russ Smith) if they could have won national championships without both parts of their backcourt duos.
Throw in electric scorers such as Danuel House and Jalen Jones, a still-developing frontcourt star in Tyler Davis, a defense that forces a lot of turnovers and a three-man bench of Tonny Trocha-Morelos, Admon Gilder and DJ Hogg and this team checks pretty much all of the necessary boxes for success in March.
Yet, I'm picking Vanderbilt in this one.
Davis is great for a freshman, but he's no match for Damian Jones just yet. I suppose that leaves 6'7" Jalen Jones to deal with 7'1" Luke Kornet? This is not a great frontcourt matchup for A&M.
And Vanderbilt's real strength is in the backcourt. The Commodores entered play on Wednesday ranked 12th in the nation in three-point offense and fourth in three-point defense. Already this season, they've made 62 more triples than the opposition. They're also third in the country in defensive assist rate, allowing an assist on fewer than 40 percent of opponents' field goals—quite the contrast to Texas A&M's offensive assist rate of 68.9 percent.
Perhaps most importantly, though, Vanderbilt needs this game way more than Texas A&M does.
The Commodores can clearly play, but they have fallen just short in every chance at a marquee win this season. They do face Kentucky, Florida and Texas before this one, so perhaps they won't be quite as desperate for a win as they are right now, but if you think Vanderbilt doesn't want to spruce up its tournament resume with a home win against the SEC's best team, you're out of your mind.
9. Iowa Hawkeyes
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The Game: Iowa @ Michigan (March 5)
Iowa won the first game between these teams by an 11-point margin, but Michigan actually held the lead early in the second half before going ice-cold for about eight minutes.
As has often been the case this season, Iowa couldn't miss from three-point range. Peter Jok led the charge in this one as the Hawkeyes shot 10-of-22 (45.6 percent). But Michigan's Duncan Robinson had his worst offensive performance since late November in shooting 2-of-8 from three-point range—snapping a ludicrous 13-game streak of shooting at least 40 percent from beyond the arc.
Iowa also committed just four turnovers in the game, which is ridiculous no matter how good a team is on offense. The Hawkeyes are one of the most turnover-averse teams in the nation, committing a turnover on just 14.1 percent of possessions on the season. But even at that rate, they should have coughed the ball up more than twice as many times as they did.
(Michigan actually entered the game ranked ahead of Iowa in turnover percentage and still ranks 13th in the nation after committing 13 against the Hawkeyes.)
Also, Michigan didn't have Caris LeVert for Round 1. And while Iowa was able to dominate Michigan State both with and without Denzel Valentine, it would be silly to assume that Michigan won't be in better shape for the rematch with the leader who averages 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game.
Look, when it comes to the Wolverines, the big question is whether they'll be able to do enough on the glass to stay in the game. Xavier, Connecticut, SMU and Purdue blew them out because they decimated the Wolverines on the boards in all four of those games. But against an average rebounding team in Iowa, they were plus-six in the rebounding department.
With a healthy LeVert, Robinson presumably shooting better and maybe better luck in the turnover department, Michigan could make a real tournament-resume statement in this regular-season finale.
8. SMU Mustangs
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The Game: SMU @ Cincinnati (March 6)
Cincinnati almost ended SMU's perfect season two weeks ago. The Bearcats were up by seven with just over three minutes remaining, only to be outscored 11-2 the rest of the way.
Though the Mustangs survived that game, I'd have to take Cincinnati in a seven-game series.
In most aspects of the game, these teams are evenly matched. They both like to play at a slow, foul-free pace, crash the offensive glass about as well as any team in the nation and move the ball well on offense. SMU depends on scoring inside the arc, while Cincinnati has one of the best shot-blocking, two-point defenses in the country.
There's one area that drastically favors Cincinnati, though.
Turnovers.
SMU's offensive steal percentage ranks 334th in the nation, while Cincinnati's defensive steal percentage ranks eighth. As a result, the Bearcats had 12 steals in a game that they almost certainly would have won if SMU hadn't set its season high in blocked shots with 11 swats.
The kicker here is that this is SMU's last game of the season.
Best-case scenario, the Mustangs are feeling the intense pressure of trying to put the finishing touches on a perfect 30-0 record. Worst-case scenario, they've already suffered at least one loss, thus falling short of their goal and not caring nearly as much about this game. And Cincinnati is probably one more bad loss away from desperately needing this win to sneak into the NCAA tournament.
7. Maryland Terrapins
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The Game: Maryland vs. Iowa (January 28)
With just one other exception, we ended up with a list full of road games. However, it's not like Maryland has done anything to scare opposing teams away from College Park. Sure, the Terrapins are 11-0 at home this season, but sprinkled into that perfect record were games against Georgetown, Rider, Penn State and Northwestern that were way too close for comfort.
With that in mind, they welcome Iowa into the Xfinity Center one week from Thursday for a game that might as well determine who wins the Big Ten regular-season title.
(Indiana is technically in first place, but the Hoosiers have yet to play any of the other five teams projected for a winning record in conference. Then again, Maryland lost its only game thus far against one of those teams, so perhaps the Terps shouldn't be trusted yet, either.)
Believe it or not, this one figures to be a tough matchup for Maryland because it's at a disadvantage on the perimeter.
For starters, the Terrapins have some turnover issues. They commit 13.7 per game and only force 11.9. That's not the type of ball control you want when facing an Iowa team that is plus-65 in turnover margin this season.
Iowa should also have an edge in three-point shooting. In five Big Ten games—four of which were against Michigan State (twice), Michigan and Purdue, so try not to scoff at the sample size—the Hawkeyes are shooting 43.0 percent and holding the opposition to 29.9 percent.
And though they don't have the household names in the frontcourt that Maryland has, the Hawkeyes are capable of hanging with Diamond Stone and Robert Carter, given how well they shut down A.J. Hammons and Caleb Swanigan a few weeks ago.
It should be a great game, but Iowa should do just enough on the defensive end to erase any remaining doubts about who is the best team in this conference.
6. West Virginia Mountaineers
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The Game: West Virginia @ Iowa State (February 2)
It's well below the radar, even as far as marquee Big 12 games go, but this might be my favorite game remaining in the regular season.
Iowa State and West Virginia are both good teams, but they could not be any different.
They both play at a fast pace, but Iowa State goes quick on offense and bogs down on defense, while West Virginia pushes the tempo on defense and slows down on offense. West Virginia's offensive possessions will look like they're happening in slow motion compared to Iowa State's.
West Virginia leads the nation in turnover percentage on defense. Iowa State ranks sixth in turnover percentage on offense. On average, the Mountaineers force 20.0 turnovers, while the Cyclones commit 10.7. Something has to break.
Iowa State leads the nation in defensive free-throw rate, and West Virginia ranks dead last in it. Conversely, West Virginia ranks fifth in offensive free-throw rate, while Iowa State ranks 347th. An average Iowa State game features a total of 30.0 free-throw attempts. An average West Virginia game features a total of 58.1 free-throw attempts.
Again, something has to break.
Basically, it's order vs. chaos, and the team seeking order just so happens to have Hilton magic on its side in this one. West Virginia will probably drive Iowa State bonkers in the rematch in Morgantown, but look for the Cyclones to frustrate the Mountaineers on Groundhog Day by keeping them from playing the type of insane game in which they thrive.
5. Xavier Musketeers
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The Game: Xavier vs. Villanova (February 24)
Blame the Edmond Sumner injury from early in the first half if you want, but Villanova (particularly Ryan Arcidiacono) ran the Musketeers out of the gym on New Year's Eve. So, while this is a home game for Xavier, it's hard to believe that change of venue is going to be enough to overcome the 31-point difference from the first game.
Long before Villanova, teams were letting it fly against Xavier. In fact, in 16 of 18 games this season, opponents have attempted at least 20 three-pointers against the Musketeers.
And it's not like Villanova needs a written invitation to shoot the long ball. The Wildcats aren't nearly as reliant on it as they were in the first 11 games of the season, but they're still averaging slightly more than 20 three-point attempts per game in Big East play.
So, go ahead and take that to the bank. Villanova will attempt at least 20 triples in this one.
The unknown is how many of those will fall.
In seven games in the month of December, Villanova made at least 10 three-pointers five times and shot 12.5 percent or worse in the other two. The Wildcats shot 4-of-22 at home against Seton Hall two weeks ago but shot 10-of-19 at Seton Hall on Wednesday night. There's literally no telling whether Good Villanova or Bad Villanova will show up. We just know that team will be shooting.
And though nobody mentioned it while wanting to believe that Xavier was worthy of a No. 1 seed, this offense has been struggling lately. The Musketeers scored 74 in a 74-possession game against St. John's, 74 in a 75-possession game against Marquette and 72 in the 67-possession loss to Georgetown on Tuesday.
When they aren't shooting at least 40 percent from three-point range, they have a lot of trouble averaging one point per possession. And outside of the infamous game against Oklahoma, Villanova has done a great job of holding opponents in check on defense. The Wildcats have held 16 of 18 opponents to less than 40 percent from three. Seven of those teams failed to reach 30 percent.
Hopefully, it will be closer than the first game, but Villanova very well might complete the season sweep.
4. Villanova Wildcats
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The Game: Villanova @ Xavier (February 24)
If you had told me that one team would win by a 31-point margin in the first meeting between these teams, I would have picked Xavier for sure. Not because it was a home game for the Musketeers or because they're that much better than Villanova, but because Xavier had been the better shooting team and the substantially better rebounding team.
Through 18 games, the Wildcats have a total rebounding margin of plus-33, and it's surprising they're even doing that well.
With Kris Jenkins playing more than 25 minutes per game at power forward and averaging just 4.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, it's really Daniel Ochefu or bust in the frontcourt. To his credit, he has been remarkable for a second straight season, entering play on Wednesday ranked in the top 50 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
But he and Josh Hart are the only Wildcats crashing the glass, and that's not enough against a Xavier team with an average rebounding margin of plus-9.9 per game. Jalen Reynolds and James Farr should have decimated Villanova on the glass, and maybe they would have if Villanova had bothered to miss more than 21 shots in the entire game.
That leads into the "better shooting team" portion of the above statement, because Xavier entered that game shooting about 37 percent from three-point range as a team, and Villanova shot 1-of-11 from downtown against Penn in the game before this one. But the Wildcats couldn't miss anything on this day.
A repeat performance, and sure, they'll win no problem. But if the shooting percentages are a bit more balanced and rebounding margin comes into play, the advantage goes to Xavier.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
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The Game: Kansas @ Oklahoma (February 13)
Kansas needed three overtimes to win the game of the season back in early January, but the lack of home-court advantage might cost the Jayhawks in this one.
"I can't wait for the rematch," Buddy Hield told reporters after the game, according to Dave Skretta of the Denver Post.
These teams are so evenly matched it's absurd.
Both are deadly from three. Both push the pace on offense. Both are average on the glass but make it work. Both heavily rely on a three-guard backcourt. Both have a senior in the frontcourt who opposing fans hate with a fiery rage. And neither one has totally figured out what it's doing with that fifth spot in the lineup—though Oklahoma has made much larger strides here than Kansas.
But the deciding factor in this one is that they're both good at home.
Oklahoma is 23-1 at the Lloyd Noble Center since the beginning of last season, and the one loss was an overtime game against Kansas State in which Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins somehow managed to combine for four points in 81 minutes on 15 field-goal attempts.
It's going to be tough to live up to the first game, but this one should come close enough to make the rubber match in the Big 12 tournament the most anticipated conference tournament game in recent memory.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
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The Game: North Carolina @ Virginia (February 27)
North Carolina is pretty much our final remaining hope that there could be an elite team this season, and the Tar Heels still have a ton of difficult games remaining, including a pair against Duke, a home game against Miami and road games against Louisville and Notre Dame.
And, oh yeah, this road game against Virginia that's likely going to result in a loss.
As far as professional talent goes, North Carolina beats Virginia by a landslide. With the possible exception of Nate Britt, pick any Tar Heel who plays at least 10 minutes per game, and you're picking someone who will play in the NBA. But the Cavaliers' best shot at getting drafted is probably Mike Tobey, and he doesn't even start.
However, it's the systems that make this one way more interesting than it would be in a pickup game.
North Carolina's three-point defense is among the worst in the nation. Even after Wake Forest did the Tar Heels a big favor by shooting 2-of-18 on Wednesday night, North Carolina is allowing opponents to connect on 37.1 percent of three-point attempts and 8.2 per game. That's big news for Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes—the latter of whom ranks third in the nation in three-point percentage.
The pace of play will also frustrate North Carolina, as it has for the past couple of years. The Tar Heels went 2-6 in games with 65 possessions or fewer last season, and they're 2-2 in games with less than 68 possessions this year.
It has been more than two months since Virginia played in a game with more than 66 possessions, and the Cavaliers have won their last two regular-season games against North Carolina by a double-digit margin.
So try not to overreact if the projected No. 1 overall seed suffers this loss at the end of February. Virginia is simply North Carolina's kryptonite.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
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The Game: Oklahoma @ West Virginia (February 20)
Have we mentioned that playing at West Virginia is a nightmare for any team?
Even in the friendly confines of its home gym last Saturday, Oklahoma had its worst offensive effort of the season against the Mountaineers. The Sooners committed 18 turnovers, shot a season-low 29.2 percent from three-point range and failed to average at least one point per possession for the first time all year.
Press Virginia doesn't care if you're one of the favorites to win the national championship. In fact, it might just come at you even harder to prove that it needs to be taken seriously as a contender this March.
In the rematch, Oklahoma should focus on getting the ball into the paint. West Virginia has a great three-point defense but isn't nearly as difficult to score on inside the arc—which makes Oklahoma's 11-of-30 two-point shooting in the first game seem like the lowest-hanging fruit to address before the next one.
Plus, driving to the rim will ensure the Sooners get back to the free-throw line with regularity, where they scored 27 of their 70 points last weekend.
But even the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry in Morgantown. Prepare however you want, Sooners. Just so long as you prepare for a war.
Stats courtesy of KenPom.com unless otherwise indicated.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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