2016 NFL Draft: Players Most Likely to Bust

It's inevitable: Some early-round draft picks won't make it in the NFL despite high-level athleticism or obvious next-level abilities. In a sport that's not only team- and situation-reliant but also based on mental makeup and passion, minor hiccups in a young player's development, focus or mindset off the field can affect his long-term potential.

No one should root for, or expect, any players to "bust" each draft, but exploring high-risk prospects is a necessary way to reduce immediate expectations, protect from hyperbole in draft grades and be honest about how each prospect can contribute early in the NFL.

There are more than a few players on this list I've graded positively, offering plenty of pluses in their scouting reports. But the evaluation of "risk versus reward" is prevalent in NFL draft evaluation, and these eight players offer enough risk for NFL teams to potentially pump the breaks when considering them for high draft choices.

Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

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During his true freshman season, Christian Hackenberg emphatically impressed NFL evaluators in Bill O'Brien's offense, highlighting a skill set that appeared to make him destined to be a future No. 1 overall draft selection.

But since O'Brien's departure, the last two seasons in Happy Valley haven't brought NFL scouts the same excitement. He's appeared too mechanical in his upper half while being stiff in his lower half, leading to bounce passes on quick slants and routine perimeter throws sailing off the mark. Overall, his discomfort has been readily apparent, as he and many other Penn State offensive players have struggled to feel confident and comfortable during James Franklin's tenure.

For NFL teams, the question is simple: Are they drafting the 2013 highly promising version of Hackenberg or the 2014-2015 lackluster one? The Houston Texans are the most obvious fit thanks to the Bill O'Brien connection, but regardless of where he lands, Hackenberg needs ample time to develop and hopefully return to his early Penn State form.

Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

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Drawing comparisons to DeSean Jackson thanks to his vertical speed and ball-tracking skills down the field, Will Fuller may grow into a late-first- or early-second-round receiver prospect teams will quietly begin to covet. Receivers with that specific skill set continue to have value for NFL teams, and Fuller appears to be a higher-upside version of 2015 second-round pick Devin Smith.

But Fuller's issues with active, physical cornerbacks are a bit concerning. While his style is suited for primarily vertical plays, he had his fair share of inconsistencies this season, especially against NFL-talented secondaries such as Clemson and Temple. 

With a strong receiver class, Fuller has an outside shot for the first round but is more likely drafted somewhere in the latter part of the top 60. But his lack of completeness as a receiver prospect and issues against top talent may make him more situational and scheme-specific than his eventual draft position may indicate.

Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

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After nearly entering the 2015 NFL draft, Ronnie Stanley opted to return to school for his fourth season with the top 10 of the 2016 draft on his mind. Stanley hasn't necessarily taken a step back this season, but concerns about his motivation and physicality as a blocker have begun to grow as he's become a more spotlighted player.

Struggling with Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson, along with other powerful edge players this season, Stanley's finesse style as a pass-blocker hasn't boded well against that type of edge-rusher. While his smooth lateral balance and efficient footwork, coupled with a strong and well-placed initial punch, scream franchise-left tackle ability, a lack of great passion in his play is concerning for NFL evaluators.

Despite his athleticism and two-year success as the Fighting Irish's left tackle, don't be surprised if he slips a bit on draft day, with fears of the "soft" label creeping into his scouting report. I'd be a bit nervous to pull the trigger in the top 15, and thanks to prospects such as Laremy Tunsil, Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker, NFL teams won't be without options aside from Stanley.

Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor

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As far as "busts" are concerned, nose tackle is always one of the riskiest positions for NFL teams to take early. Not many non-pass-rushers who are 310 or more can find longevity in their success without statistical production, weight fluctuations and trying to stay focused and in-shape through an entire season. 

Andrew Billings doesn't appear to have those concerns, as he's won teams over so far with his motor on the field and work ethic off it. But defensive tackles who don't offer pass-rush upside (which Billings does not) aren't often viewed as top-15 picks unless they have remarkable athleticism or 3-4 nose tackle size.

Billings is a physically imposing interior player and should be among the strongest players at the NFL Scouting Combine, but it'll take a team's confidence in Billings' mental makeup for him to be a top-20 pick. And even then, it'll be a constant reinforcement of his value to keep him disruptive as a starting interior defensive tackle.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

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Viewed as the consensus top high school recruit in the country, according to 247Sports, Robert Nkemdiche has been destined for the NFL since before he stepped foot on Ole Miss' campus. Nkemdiche possesses rare athleticism as a defensive lineman, showing remarkable bend and violent explosiveness when he chooses to do so.

But inconsistency and a lack of production during his career have turned the excitement over his potential into question marks about his ability to develop at the NFL level. Coupled with off-field issues, Nkemdiche will be in draft-grade-rehab mode, working to win over teams as a first-round prospect.

His rare skill set will earn him a draft selection in the top two rounds at the very least. But the top 32 will be Nkemdiche's goal, and with few prospects in any draft class offering the same type of elite upside, it only takes one team to bite. He may be too risky on and off the field for some teams to consider in Round 1, but the higher he lands, the higher the expectations will be—and the more prone he'll be to becoming an NFL letdown.

Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson

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Kevin Dodd had been a quality rotational prospect for the Clemson Tigers the past two seasons but made the most of a starter job in 2015 opposite future top-15 draft pick Shaq Lawson. As a "one-year wonder," scouts will have questions about whether Dodd has benefited from the talent around him (and opposite him) and if he offers long-term upside after just one year of quality production.

With an ideal body type (6'5", 280 lbs), Dodd fits the profile of a still-developing edge prospect who's produced at the college level. He ended his career with at least one sack in his last five games, including a tremendous performance in both run and pass defense against Alabama.

Dodd likely won't reach the top 20 picks in the draft, but his flashes and end-of-season dominance may have teams a bit too eager to tap into his apparent potential. Professional teams will need to determine if he can succeed in the NFL on his own and for more than just one season.

Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor

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With one of the most physically imposing body types college football has ever seen, Shawn Oakman looks the part and then some of a future NFL superstar. But the 6'8", 290-pound defensive end has been a three-year key contributor and a two-year starter and still doesn’t offer consistent play to merit a first- or maybe even second-round draft grade.

Oakman is a project, a talent worth tapping into, but NFL teams will question if he’ll ever reach the peak that his body type alludes to. Similar to Oklahoma State’s Justin Gilbert from two drafts ago (though character has derailed Gilbert's career so far), some players just will not improve, regardless of their athletic capabilities.

At least a few NFL teams will consider Oakman in the top 40 draft picks, but he’s a “buyer beware” prospect as a developmental project. And if he does land in the top 32 with expectations to contribute immediately, he may be deemed a bust early in his NFL career.

Von Bell, S, Ohio State

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In one of the weaker positions of the 2016 NFL draft class, I'd expect a handful of safety prospects to get pushed up draft boards because of team need and positional-depth concerns. Bell is a powerful strong safety who's effective in mid-range coverage and finishing on underneath routes and is proving to be an effective edge run defender.

But the quality of talent across the Buckeyes defense may impact Bell's evaluation—as will be the case with many Ohio State prospects besides Joey Bosa. With so much talent at every layer of the defense, Ohio State might have eight or nine prospects drafted this year from that side alone.

The combination of the talent support around him impacting his film grade and the positional value making him a potential team-need riser in the process could put Bell in a situation with unreasonable expectations and a team fit that may not be conducive to what he does best as a prospect.