Australian Open 2016: 10 Bold Predictions at Melbourne
Tennis fans are ready for the 2016 Australian Open as defending champions Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams look to fend off deep fields of challengers and top stars. The two superstars have often won championships, but the work and grind to a major title is anything but easy.
While the draw and matchups are set, it’s interesting to predict which stars will thrive, which will survive and which will dive. Our tournament’s “Bold Predictions” are set to examine the most influential possible upsets and successes. We pick our tournament winners and a few surprising first-week matches.
Next week, after the pretenders have been eliminated, we will follow up more on the second-week stretch. Enjoy the tennis.
Novak Djokovic Will Win the 2016 Australian Open
1 of 10
Let’s get this started with the easiest prediction: World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will win the 2016 Australian Open. We just want to let you know that we are not going to purposely fill out our “Bold Predictions” column simply to try to predict upsets. (ESPN's Patrick McEnroe was the only one of 12 experts who did not pick Djokovic. He selected Stan Wawrinka.)
So let’s go a little further and play a numbers game for the first week. King Novak will be so dominant that he will not drop more than 18 games against his first three opponents. (Hyeon Chung, first round; Quentin Halys/Ivan Dodig, second round; probably Andreas Seppi, third round.) His 54-18 margin averages out to 6-2 set for each of nine sets.
Part of this prediction is due to Djokovic’s motivation and awareness. He knows that easy matches in the first week and less time on the court mean more energy to expend in the second week. He will be challenged at some point in the closing stages, so his quick early work will pay dividends.
Serena Williams Will Lose Before the Semifinals
2 of 10
Although Serena Williams is usually a heavy favorite these days, having won three of four major championships in in 2015, most people do not feel she is a slam dunk. ESPN's 12 experts resoundingly chose Victoria Azarenka (nine votes) to win this tournament, with only two votes going to Serena. I'm going to concur. There are multiple issues that are not in sync with her optimum tennis right now.
- How will Serena respond after a long layoff following her semifinal loss in the U.S. Open? She should be rested, but her momentum and dominance has to start up again. It's just not that easy.
- Serena had knee inflammation during the Hopman Cup earlier in January, and although she insists that she is fine and training well, she will need to hold up for two weeks of intense tennis.
- Other talented players know that they can win if they have their day. Serena could lose to Caroline Wozniacki, Belinda Bencic, Svetlana Kuznetsova or Maria Sharapova. Those are all possibilities before the semifinals, which stacks up stronger than the draws she had at majors in 2015.
Of course Serena is capable of proving us wrong, and if she plays her best tennis she will win. We're just betting that it won't happen this time. Her time to stand even with Steffi Graf's 22 majors will have to wait.
Jack Sock Will Threaten Stan Wawrinka in the Third Round
3 of 10
There are potentially some very competitive third-round matches. The hottest one just might be rising American Jack Sock slugging it out against world No. 4 and our second-ranked contender Stan Wawrinka. Sock’s powerful forehand could give Wawrinka a taste of his own powerful medicine, and if he holds up under pressure, the Swiss will get more than he bargained for.
Neither player is fleet-footed, but in the past three years, Wawrinka has learned to use the slow hard court to give him time to wind up with his offensive power. Against Sock, he might very well have to swallow some forehand pills to survive and advance. Wawrinka can sputter against opponents he is supposed to handle, and the telltale sign is when he piles up far too many unforced errors.
They have not played each other before, so Sock's game might be able to surprise Wawrinka early and establish the tone. In the end, Wawrinka will probably pull through and be a championship factor in the second week, but do not be overly surprised if Sock goes toe-to-toe with the 2014 Australian Open champion and boots him out of the 2016 bracket.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Heat and Injuries Will Take Their Biggest Toll in the Women's Bracket
4 of 10
Who will ever forget the excruciating heat at the 2014 Australian Open that sapped the strength from many players, exhausting Juan Martin del Potro, causing Frank Dancevic to faint and melting Caroline Wozniacki’s water bottle.
There’s already been a weather warning for Monday and Tuesday, where temperatures are expected to be up to 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Which favored players will wilt and get an early exit?
Of greater concern, many of the WTA’s top players have had injuries in the past two weeks. Is Serena really healthy? How is Garbine Muguruza’s foot? Is Simona Halep’s Achilles fully recovered? Can Maria Sharapova finally be healthy for a major?
Some of these stars, and a few others, will be going down early. I’m not convinced Simona Halep is completely confident. She’s had some Achilles tenderness since August, and the way she scrambles, she cannot afford limitations. She was also susceptible to heat exhaustion in crumbling at the Rogers Cup final against Belinda Bencic last August in Toronto.
Halep will not make it to the semifinals, and, as we noted in our first slide, neither will Serena.
Nick Kyrgios Is Ready to Fight into the Semifinals
5 of 10
Another possible third-round match could be a real key in the bottom of the draw’s top half (“The Roger Federer quarter"). Talented, mercurial Nick Kyrgios might be pitted up against steady, top-10 stalwart Tomas Berdych. It’s the perfect chance for Kyrgios to prove his mettle and maturity, and there’s a great chance he wins this match.
Kyrgios can look around at other young players like Grigor Dimitrov and fellow Aussie Bernard Tomic. Nobody’s giving them anything on tour, and years have passed with their brief flashes of talent largely suffocated by more hard-working and polished veterans. Kyrgios’ career is not a birthright, and he probably knows that major titles are not going to land in his lap.
So it’s time to get get going now, take notes and build off of his powerful athleticism. He played well in December’s Indian Premier Tennis League, and he helped Australia win the Hopman Cup earlier in January. This is a great chance for his stock to rise, and we think a win against Berdych will launch him forward past stars like Marin Cilic and Roger Federer. He is our surprise semifinal pick.
Grigor Dimitrov Will Defeat Roger Federer in the Third Round
6 of 10
Maybe it is time the young 20-somethings ;to find a greater niche inside the top 20, and Grigor Dimitrov is playing much better than he was last year. The Bulgarian is showing more aggressiveness with his power strokes, hitting more line drives with his backhand and looking to win more points rather than hope for opponents’ mistakes.
In the third round, he would almost assuredly be matched up against Swiss legend Roger Federer. There are no worthy comparisons between these two athletes, but Dimitrov does have the skills to create problems with Federer, as he did in Brisbane. His serving and forehand power is strong, and his footwork is excellent. If he has his best day, and we think he will, he could very well pull off the upset.
It doesn’t mean that Dimitrov will match his quarterfinal effort at the 2014 Australian Open, but he’s setting up for a much-improved 2016 and a drive back to the top 10.
Victoria Azarenka over Garbine Muguruza in Fourth-Round Classic
7 of 10
With many tennis observers firmly seated on the Victoria Azarenka bandwagon, she’s not going to sneak up on her competition. It should be an easy road to the fourth round, where she is very likely to encounter world No. 3 Garbine Muguruza.
It might become one of the very special matches of the tournament. Both players have a lot of hitting talent and power. At 22 years old, Muguruza is where Azarenka was four years ago when she won her first of two consecutive Australian Open titles. Azarenka is trying to get back to her pre-injured excellence as primarily the second-best player in the world.
They have not played each other yet, so this would be a particularly intriguing match. Either of them could use this as a springboard all the way to winning the title, or it could sap much-needed energy for the stretch ahead.
Who will win? Either, but we will give the edge to Vika at her favorite venue.
Bizarre Third-Round Match with Bernard Tomic vs. Fabio Fognini
8 of 10
The possibilities are endless if Australia’s own underachieving Bernard Tomic takes on fiery Fabio Fognini in the third round, and tennis could take a back seat.
Tomic has had a reputation for tanking matches—quitting or not playing hard when things do not go well. On January 15, he took this to a new level. While playing in a match at Sydney, Tomic found it important enough to check his phone, learn of his draw for the Australian Open, play uninspiring tennis, admit to the chair umpire that he was not thinking about Sydney and then retire at 3-6, 0-3. He claims he was sick, but few are buying it.
Fognini has had his share of outbursts, including obscenities, throwing rackets and unsportsmanlike behavior. He admitted as much to the Associated Press (h/t ESPN), commenting on his ill behavior at 2014 Wimbledon. “I am kept track of, the way (Ernests) Gulbis is, because we're two hotheads.”
They’ve split two career matches, and Tomic handled Fognini a couple OF months ago in the Paris Masters. Both players will feel they should win their potential upcoming match, and for either of them this could be boom or bust.
Expect tensions to be high. Something is bound to happen that will spice up water-cooler talk from Melbourne to northwest Italy.
Agnieszka Radwanska Will Win the Australian Open
9 of 10
There’s never been a better time than now for Agnieszka Radwanska. She’s 26 years old, a former world No. 2 and familiar with the enormous tasks of outplaying bigger, stronger power hitters. She is armed with her fantastic offensive variety and a potent, quick-retrieving defense.
It won’t be easy to get through the top half of the bracket, and this could mean more challenges against powerful players like Petra Kvitova, Maria Sharapova or Serena Williams. Can she string together several masterful matches in the late stages?
Radwanska’s playing perhaps the best tennis on tour, capped by winning the WTA finals in Singapore last November. She’s focused and healthy, while other stars have pulled out of recent tournaments or fretted with inconsistent results. She has that look in her eye that she is ready to win big. Now is the time.
Rafael Nadal Will Dominate His First Week of Matches
10 of 10
Rafael Nadal is optimistic that 2016 will be much better than 2015. Will he at least match his 2015 quarterfinals run at Melbourne when he crashed against Tomas Berdych?
Probably, but that doesn’t mean players like Fernando Verdasco, Jeremy Chardy, Ernests Gulbis, Gael Monfils or Kevin Anderson can’t make it very interesting in the first four rounds.
Nadal has played better against everyone not named Novak Djokovic, and he has worked very hard to rebuild his game and confidence. He’s still one of the top players in the world, an interesting story and with his best remaining opportunity to dominate the early months of a tennis year.
He’s going to play well the first week and get everybody talking about his title chances. Then we will reassess his play in the second week, as fans debate whether he has closed any of his cavernous gap in pursuit of Djokovic. Stay tuned.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
