Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Start of College Basketball Conference Play

Remember all of those predictions you heard before the 2015-16 college basketball season began in November? Toss them aside.

Same goes for the evaluations made about teams at the end of nonconference play, since the real games had yet to be played. And now that we've had a few weeks of conference action to influence opinion, it's time to make some new determinations about what's going on in college hoops this season.

And much like other assessments that have been made throughout the season, most won't end up proving to hold merit later on. That's the nature of sports, where knee-jerk reactions are part of our culture and fuel debate and discussion on a daily basis.

Follow along as we respond to what's happened during the early part of conference play.

Indiana Has Righted the Ship

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Indiana coach Tom Crean was at or near the top of most “hot seat” lists entering the 2015-16 season, but with one of his most talented lineups yet there was hope he'd be able to make something happen. Then reality set in as his Hoosiers lost twice in Maui and got blown out at Duke; in each instance their defense (or lack thereof) was to blame.

Two weeks into Big Ten play, though, Indiana is one of three unbeaten teams in the league (along with Iowa and Maryland), and the defense has looked better with each outing. Last time out, the Hoosiers held Ohio State to 39.3 percent shooting.

According to Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, that was the seventh time in nine games since the Duke loss that Indiana held an opponent to less than one point per possession.

Indiana's 4-0 start has been nice, but it's yet to face the meat of the league schedule. Its road games were at bottom-tier teams Rutgers and Nebraska, and at home it's beaten Wisconsin and Ohio State teams that are going through rebuilding years. The Hoosiers don't play a ranked opponent until Feb. 11, when they host Iowa in what would be the first of five games against ranked teams in their final seven.

The Pac-12 Will Have the Tightest Conference Race in the Country

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The ACC has four teams that still have perfect conference records. The Big Ten and Mountain West have three apiece. There are two unblemished teams in the American, the Big 12 and the SEC.

And then there's the Pac-12, which through two weekends of conference action is down to one unbeaten team: Washington, which was picked finished 11^th out of 12 schools, is 3-0 after an overtime win Saturday at rival Washington State.

The Huskies also swept the Los Angeles schools, which this past weekend swept the Arizona schools. Preseason favorite Arizona lost to UCLA and USC by a combined five points, the former on a three-pointer with 1.8 seconds left and the latter in quadruple overtime.

The Pac-12 currently has six teams among the top 50 in the KenPom.com rankings and another five rated in the top 100. That could lead to the league having the most teams make the NCAA tournament of any conference, though that could prevent the Pac-12 from landing any high seeds.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has eight Pac-12 teams in his latest bracket projection, but none are listed at better than a No. 4 seed.

The Big 12 Still Belongs to Kansas

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The Big 12 Conference held onto its name despite dropping down to 10 teams a few years ago, but after this season it might be able to just saw the numeral stands for how many consecutive regular-season titles that Kansas has won.

The Jayhawks have won at least a share of the last 11 Big 12 crowns, and the early returns indicate they'll have this year's crown go through Lawrence again. They helped with that by pulling out a 109-106 triple-overtime win over Oklahoma, but contender Iowa State has already lost twice (including once at home).

Tuesday's game against West Virginia, the only other team that's yet to lose in Big 12 play, will give us an idea if someone is going to hang with Kansas early on or if it will create separation from the rest of the pack before we get to February.

Villanova Is a Notch Above the Rest of the Big East

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After rolling through the Big East Conference the last two seasons, only to fall early in the NCAA tournament, Villanova beefed up its nonconference schedule to be better prepared for the postseason. The Wildcats also saw their league mates post numerous big wins before conference play, making for even more potential pre-NCAA tournament challenges.

But so far, it's been more of the same for Villanova: it lost the two high-profile non-league games, by 23 against Oklahoma (in Hawaii) and by 11 at Virginia, while the rest of the Big East is just beating up on each other, with none having yet challenged 'Nova in league play.

The Wildcats are 4-0 in the big East, winning by an average of 14.8 points. That includes a 31-point home win over then-No. 6 Xavier and a five-point win Sunday at then-No. 18 Butler.

"There is no doubt that Villanova remains the Big East's best," CBS Sports' Matt Norlander wrote. "Since the 2013-14 season began, Villanova is 35-4 in the regular season against the Big East."

North Carolina Is Built to Win a Title

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Since it's evident there are no dominant teams this year as was the case a season ago, when the likes of Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin seemed destined for the Final Four as early as December, we have to look past flaws and blemishes to find the best candidates to contend for a national title. And this process has led us to see North Carolina as the best-equipped to cut down the nets in Houston in April.

The fifth-ranked Tar Heels have lost twice, the first at Northern Iowa while senior guard Marcus Paige was recovering from a broken hand. The second came on a last-second shot at Texas, and senior center Kennedy Meeks hurt his knee in that setback, missing the next seven games.

Those injuries have actually helped UNC, because it's forced others to take on a greater role in those players' absences. Sophomore guard Joel Berry II has thrived as the point guard, with 12.6 points and 4.3 assists per game, while big men Isaiah Hicks and Joel James made Meeks' time away have little impact.

And while Paige is still the heart and soul of the team, senior forward Brice Johnson has raised his game to another level this season. Last week he had a 39-point, 23-rebound performance at Florida State and then followed that up with 16 points and eight assists at Syracuse.

Kentucky Is Pretty Darn Average

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After making it to a Final Four game last season before losing, it was inevitable that Kentucky would drop a few along the way in 2015-16. After all, the Wildcats lost seven players to the NBA draft and despite another major influx of talent they weren't expected to be as strong this season.

Turns out they're not even close to last year's team.

Kentucky has already lost three times, falling at UCLA and against Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic and then losing by 18 at LSU on Jan. 5. Those teams have a combined 18 losses.

The heavy reliance on freshmen isn't anything new with the Wildcats, but this group isn't responding like others. Center Skal Labissiere has struggled mightily, not playing like someone who began the season as a potential No. 1 NBA draft pick, while the various guards have been hot and cold. Beyond sophomore Tyler Ulis, no one has been consistent.

This isn't anywhere close to the level of mediocrity we saw from Kentucky in 2012-13 when, after winning the national title and losing five players early to the draft, it failed to make the NCAA tournament. But it's also not looking like the 2013-14 team that underachieved all season and then made the title game.

South Carolina Might Actually Be the SEC's Best Team

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Other than SMU, which is ineligible for the postseason, the only unbeaten team left in college basketball is South Carolina. Yes, you're reading that correctly.

The Gamecocks went 17-16 a year ago but sit at 15-0 after Saturday's win over Vanderbilt. That came after a road victory against Alabama, their first conference-opening triumph in five years. At No. 19 in the latest Associated Press poll, they've got their best ranking since 1998.

And with all of the projected powers in the SEC showing major vulnerabilities to this point, South Carolina could just be the best team in the league.

"They've got me on a ride right now that is unreal," coach Frank Martin said of his players, per Scott Hood of GamecockCentral.com. "They come in every day and they care. They pay attention, they study film. Then they go out in a game like this and they’re down. But their confidence and their courage is never rattled."

It's really too soon to say this, though, because South Carolina hasn't played anyone of note. Vanderbilt, at No. 69 in the RPI, was only its fourth Top 100 opponent so far (per CBS Sports).

Dave Rice's Firing Could Start a Trend

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UNLV's Dave Rice resigned on Sunday night after a 9-7 start that included three straight losses to start Mountain West Conference play, per W.G. Ramirez. The school's news release indicated the decision was mutual, but all signs point to Rice being forced out midway through his fifth season coaching his alma mater.

Despite having great talent, including several 5-star recruits during his tenure, Rice's win total has dipped each year. The Runnin' Rebels led in each of their MWC losses, blowing a 17-point lead at Wyoming on Saturday.

Midseason firings aren't as common in college basketball as in college football, yet when one happens it often sets off a domino effect as other schools interested in making a change want to get started on finding a replacement as soon as possible. With that in mind, who else should be keeping their head on a swivel?

A good candidate would be Minnesota's Richard Pitino, who in his first season in 2013-14 took the Golden Gophers to the NIT final and in his third season is 8-10 overall and 0-4 in the Big Ten.

The Mid-Majors Won't Be Stealing Any Bids

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It's around this time in the season that the savvy college football fan starts searching for non-power-conference teams that might end up being Cinderellas in March. Get the early scoop on some so-called "bracket busters" and you could have the inside track on finally winning the office pool.

There's a lot of time left, but right now the pickings are slim from the mid-major ranks. There are teams like Arkansas-Little Rock, Monmouth, Valparaiso and UC-Irvine, schools that made waves during the preseason, but none are in position to get into the NCAA tournament without winning their conference tourney.

In fact, the overall play of non-power conferences to this point makes it look like we won't have a lot of multi-bid leagues outside of the big ones.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.