Buying or Selling Each Top-10 Team as a National Championship Contender

The 2015-16 college basketball season is at its midpoint, and with the NCAA tournament about 10 weeks away, we should start to see some separation between the contenders and the pretenders in terms of national title chances.

Going back 10 years, eight eventual national champions were ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll at this point in the season. The two exceptions were the recent Connecticut title teams, which in 2010-11 and 2013-14 were unranked in mid-January before getting hot in March.

Late surges like that are always possible, but the safe money is on a team currently sitting high in the rankings coming out as champs. With that in mind, we're taking a look at the highest-ranked teams to see whether they've got what it takes to win the championship.

These evaluations are based on the overall makeup of each team and not knee-jerk reactions based on recent results. Otherwise, the fact that half of the top 10 has lost since Monday would make for a major selling spree.

Also, we've dipped down to 11th in the latest rankings to account for No. 10 SMU, since despite being the only unbeaten team left in Division I, they can't win the title due to a postseason ban.

No. 11 West Virginia

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Buying

The West Virginia Mountaineers could jump into the top 10 next week if they're able to come away from Saturday's trip to second-ranked Oklahoma with a win. Even without doing so, the Mountaineers need to be paid heed as a national title contender due to its chaotic yet productive defense that's become known as “Press Virginia.”

Kansas felt the effects of West Virginia's frenetic attack, turning over the ball 22 times and scoring a season-low 63 points.

The Mountaineers lead the nation with a steal percentage of 15.4, forcing 20.9 turnovers per game and using those takeaways to drive their offense. They also lead the country in offensive rebounds, which allows them to score 85.3 points per game.

West Virginia used the same defensive approach in 2014-15, though it was horrible shooting the ball and that led to inconsistent results. This season only Virginia has managed to overcome the havoc, using a zone to slow the Mountaineers down in early December.

No. 9 Duke

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Selling

Duke's rosters are never lacking in talent, and this year's is no different. Five of the Blue Devils' top seven players are former 5-star prospects, including four from this past recruiting class.

But those numbers also point to the Blue Devils' biggest problems: They only have seven players who are getting playing time, one of whom (forward Chase Jeter) is only used in emergencies, and the majority of their contributors are in their first year of college.

Duke had three freshman starters in 2014-15 en route to the NCAA tournament, but that trio was experienced beyond its years. The same can't be said of this group, which has been teetering on the brink of disaster because of its lack of experience and depth since losing senior forward Amile Jefferson to a foot injury.

That came to a head on Wednesday, when foul trouble and poor play led to a 68-63 loss at Clemson.

No. 8 Miami (Florida)

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Selling

Miami swept through a preseason tournament in November with wins over Mississippi State, Utah and Butler by a combined 60 points. Then the Hurricanes lost at home to Northeastern. They followed that up with eight straight victories before Tuesday's loss at Virginia, but it wasn't exactly the most impressive winning streak.

Not just in terms of opponent quality, but also overall performance, particularly early in games.

Miami averages 81.1 points per game and shoots 49.2 percent, but in the first half, it's nowhere near as efficient. The Hurricanes have shot worse in the first 20 minutes than the last in eight consecutive games, trailing at the half in three of their last four. They rallied to win three of those by double digits, all at home, but couldn't do so at Virginia.

When things get rough, Miami should be able to turn to its veterans to bounce back. However, it's usually senior point guard Angel Rodriguez who tries to do this all on his own in a sort of “hero mode” that has produced mixed results.

No. 7 Xavier

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Buying

Just minutes into Xavier's Big East opener at Villanova, freshman guard Edmond Sumner crashed to the floor and stayed there. He was briefly hospitalized with a head injury, and he hasn't played since. But he could return on Saturday against Marquette.

The Musketeers' title hopes rest heavily on the play of Sumner, who before getting hurt had been a key to their 12-0 start that included impressive wins over Alabama, Cincinnati, Dayton, Michigan, USC and Wake Forest. Without him, Xavier lost by 31 points at Villanova.

Xavier has won by an average of 15.7 points in its last three games, acclimating to Sumner's absence. Once he's back in the fold, it will give the Musketeers a boost just in time for upcoming trips to Providence and Butler and the rematch at home against Villanova in late February.

No. 6 Villanova

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Selling

Villanova is the class of the Big East, just like it was in 2013-14 an 2014-15. And much like those previous seasons, that's more of a curse than a blessing, and it may hinder the Wildcats in preparing for the postseason.

The Wildcats' 5-0 start to league play has included only one close game: Sunday's win at Butler. They also have a 31-point win over Xavier, though the margin was impacted by the Musketeers losing guard Edmond Sumner to a head injury. That makes the Wildcats 37-4 in the Big East over the last three seasons.

The Wildcats' two losses this season came in a 12-day span in December, when they lost to Oklahoma and Virginia. It was a combined 14-of-58 from three-point range in those games, showing the dangers of being so reliant on the outside shot.

Since then, the Wildcats have made an attempt to balance their offense, attempting more twos than threes in six straight games. That's a step in the right direction, but a regression to their old style is always possible.

No. 5 North Carolina

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Buying

The starting five that North Carolina planned to roll out for this season has missed a combined 13 games, the result of injuries to seniors Marcus Paige and Kennedy Meeks. Neither player's absence had a significant impact on the Tar Heels' play. If anything, it helped boost their overall depth and confidence in reserves, making the full-strength version of the team as complete as any in the country.

With Paige out, Joel Berry had to take on the point guard role, and he's continued that since Paige returned. Meeks' absence forced big men Isaiah Hicks and Joel James to become more involved, giving UNC an almost interchangeable trio at the 5.

And both injuries opened the door for senior forward Brice Johnson to emerge as UNC's most well-rounded player. He always seemed one or two plays away from breaking through, but in 2015-16, he's erupted to lead the team in scoring (16.7), rebounding (10.2) and shooting (64.4 percent).

No. 4 Michigan State

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Buying

It's hard to be bullish about a team that just lost by 17 points at home, and to the same team it lost to by 13 a few weeks earlier. But if there's one thing that needs to be discounted when it comes to Michigan State, it's anything that happens before March.

Once the calendar switches over to that month, the Spartans always seem to flip a switch and make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. And most of those teams haven't been as talented as the one Tom Izzo has at his disposal this year.

Thursday's 76-59 loss to Iowa was only senior Denzel Valentine's second game back since having knee surgery in mid-December, and just like in his return, he didn't look 100 percent. He averaged 18.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game before getting hurt and 12, four and 4.5 since coming back.

Give Valentine some time to get up to speed, give the Spartans time to adapt to his presence and then check back with this team in two months.

“Good news for MSU: In each of the last [five] years, at least one of the Final Four teams was swept by a conference opponent, [including two national] champions,” Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller tweeted.

No. 3 Maryland

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Selling

Maryland lost on Tuesday at Michigan, falling 70-67 to a team that was missing its best player. It's the kind of slap-in-the-face result that a championship team will use to motivate it for the rest of the season.

But will it?

“No matter who is in the game, we’re the [No. 1] team in the country, no matter what,” center Diamond Stone said, per Roman Stubbs of the Washington Post. “I think every team in the country should think they’re the No. 1 team in the country, so I think that’s our mindset and that’s how we play.”

Stone is a freshman, not necessarily the one who normally speaks for a team. But if that's truly the collective thinking right after a poor performance (which came after a few other uninspiring efforts since Big Ten play began), then it could speak to overconfidence.

No. 2 Oklahoma

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Buying

Lon Kruger has taken five different schools to the NCAA tournament, going to at least the Sweet 16 with four of them, including last year's Oklahoma team. And his current Sooners group could be the best of the lot.

Oklahoma's lone setback came in a game where neither team deserved to lose: a 109-106 triple-overtime loss at Kansas. The Sooners looked so good in defeat that they actually got a first-place vote over Kansas in this week's Associated Press poll. Graham Couch of the Lansing State Journal had them first the week before and "didn't drop them for essentially tying Kansas."

That game was one where Oklahoma looked as good, if not better, than the team it lost to. And since then, there's been no hangover, as they beat Kansas State at home and outlasted a spirited Oklahoma State team on the road on Wednesday.

Buddy Hield is the star, but Oklahoma isn't a one-man team. The top four players are all upperclassmen, all of whom have played together for several years.

No. 1 Kansas

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Buying

Kansas' most recent result was a double-digit loss, but even with that fresh in our minds, it's not enough to sell Kansas as a national title contender. If anything, it serves as a wake-up call for the Jayhawks that they're not going to be able to cruise to a 12th-straight Big 12 regular-season title, not with how deep the conference is.

Kansas is 14-2, having lost at West Virginia on Tuesday and against Michigan State in the Champions Classic in November. It wasn't the better team in either of those games, but it wasn't run off the court.

The Jayhawks are among the most experienced teams in the country, with a rotation that includes three seniors and four juniors. They're not a team that has to rely on young talent to get by—in fact, they've hardly needed freshman forwards Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo—and therefore don't have to hope that inexperienced players will transform into savvy vets in March.

Back in 2008—the last time Kansas won the national title—five of its top seven players were juniors or seniors.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.