NFL Draft 2016: 10 Teams That Can't Afford to Miss on Their Picks

Some NFL teams cannot afford to make bad moves during this year's draft. In fact, here are 10 of them.

Now, we know mock drafts are going to change drastically in the next four months. A guy who is projected in the third round could jump all the way to the first. Or someone like Calvin Johnson could retire, which would throw any Detroit Lions' projections out the window.

This board is fresh and open to interpretation. There are only 10 teams on this list, but every club has holes to fill, and teams could drop off or rocket up this list based on how the offseason pans out. For example, the San Francisco 49ers are not on this list, but they well could be.

So, which teams are on this list? First, we considered teams that are in rebuild mode. That includes the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints.

Second, some teams need to break the trend of recent bad drafts. That's why the Cleveland Browns make the list.

Third, we included teams with a new general manager or head coach. Since it's vital to start off the right way, you can expect the Miami Dolphins to be on this list. They are also here because they have to fix their sinking salary cap.

Fourth, a few teams make the list because a coach or GM's job is at risk. That's why the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys make appearances.

And, for that reason, the St. Louis Rams don't make the list because head coach Jeff Fisher seems impervious to expectations.

Note that the order of this list is strictly by draft position. It's not a ranked list.

Cleveland Browns (No. 2 Pick in the Draft)

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The Browns may be in the toughest position heading into the draft.

For the sake of argument, let's assume the Tennessee Titans stay with the No. 1 overall pick and take Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil.

So, the Browns would have to decide between selecting a quarterback, Joey Bosa or another playmaker.

It's hard to gauge whom the Browns will pick without a frame of reference from new front-office addition Paul DePodesta or a new coach who has yet to be hired.

And with the collaborative front-office structure owner Jimmy Haslam seems to be installing, the Browns are in the process of starting over. 

I agree with other mocks and believe it's between quarterback Jared Goff and Bosa. And with Johnny Manziel on his way out, quarterback has just become a more glaring need.

Bosa is the pick if you want a player who will make an instant impact on a defense that ranked 28th in sacks and 30th against the run. And if the Browns really believe Goff isn't worth it, then you can't go wrong with Bosa.

Goff is the quarterback who, if he pans out, would become the foundation to a franchise that finished 25th in total offense and 21st in passing yards per game.

I apologize to Cleveland fans for the blind optimism—I blame it on my being an outsider. Years of bad-quarterback luck has soured fans on taking a quarterback this early, but the Browns should go with Goff.

Bosa is the safer pick, and playoff teams like the Houston Texans show what a good supporting cast can do, but we're talking about a need at quarterback. 

Since the Browns are the only team in the top six that needs a quarterback right away, if you bent the rules of mocks and said they trade back and then take Goff, I'm for it.

San Diego Chargers (No. 3)

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

It's not like Bosa will be on the board much longer.

Head coach Mike McCoy was given another year to make something happen, but he's on a short leash, considering six assistants were let go, according to Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today.

He may just fall into a player who could come in and reshape the pass rush alongside Melvin Ingram, who had 10.5 sacks this year.

While the San Diego Chargers need offensive line help, this pick becomes a matter of best player available.

Drafting at No. 3 is too high to strictly draft on need with a guy like Bosa available (so no Ronnie Stanley). And if we're to follow the trends (which will change 200 times between now and the draft), Bosa will be the best player left in the draft.

But that's not to say Bosa doesn't fill a need either.

The Chargers pass rush could use him since the team finished 24th in sacks this season and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Though the Chargers run a 3-4 defense and Bosa detractors think he belongs in a 4-3, CBS Sports' Dane Brugler said Bosa can manage.

“Bosa is scheme versatile with the skill set and instincts to be a disruptive force from different spots on the defensive line,” Brugler wrote.

If an attribute of top pass-rushers is their ability to attack from multiple spots on the defensive line, then Bosa is already ahead of the game.

Dallas Cowboys (No. 4)

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Jason Garrett dodged getting fired by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

If you saw the following quote in a vacuum, would it indicate that a coach is on the hot seat?

"I'm just really taken aback by the fact that we're sitting here with four wins after this year," Jones said, per Todd Archer of ESPN.com (h/t Ryan Wilson of CBSSports.com). "This was never anticipated. As a matter of fact, I thought we did one of the best offseason jobs of addressing our needs and really acquiring some serious talent where we had the most need.”

With expectations that high and a drop-off that far, it almost certainly implies changes. But that quote came in the wake of Jones saying Garrett was in no danger of being fired.

It's hard to believe that the Cowboys—who really did have a good offseason last year—could have another drop-off without Garrett getting fired.

At No. 4, the Cowboys are in a precarious situation. They could take Memphis' Paxton Lynch like some mock drafts say, stuff him behind quarterback Tony Romo for two years and let him develop.

The quarterback play the Cowboys had to suffer through is certainly painful enough to support that.

But is Lynch worth a No. 4 overall pick when (1) he's not the best available player on the board, (2) the Cowboys could fill another need and (3) he won't play for a couple of seasons, barring significant injury to Romo?

Dallas should not select Lynch at No. 4. The Cowboys could get a quarterback in the second round (or trade back into the first round if they decide) by snagging someone like North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, who is ranked No. 34 overall by Matt Miller of Bleacher Report.

Wentz could be a steal, barring his stock doesn't skyrocket over the next several weeks.

(The Cowboys are like the Browns in that they could trade back and bend the rules of “no trades in mocks” while getting Lynch, if that's who they wanted.)

In truth, No. 4 was a perfect spot for Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith, but his knee injury is major and doesn't warrant that high of a pick right now. There have been reports of possible nerve damage, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport (h/t 247Sports). 

So, for an alternative, why not Laquon Treadwell? He's the best available receiver and a deadly complement to Dez Bryant.

If the Cowboys do draft a quarterback later in the draft, imagine a three-headed monster of Bryant, Treadwell and the new quarterback, along with arguably the NFL's best offensive line.

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5)

Mike Stewart/Associated Press

The irony with the Jacksonville Jaguars is that Gus Bradley is a defensive coach, yet his offense is the promising aspect of his team.

This week, Bradley fired defensive coordinator Bob Babich, per Ryan O'Halloran of Jacksonville.com.

But that means the bulls-eye should be on Bradley, as he may not survive another defensive coordinator if Babich's replacement doesn't work out, especially since Bradley may call the plays.

“Another wrench in the search is deciding who will call the defensive plays—Bradley or the new coordinator,” O'Halloran wrote.

But Bradley apparently is open to the change. “It’s definitely a possibility—a strong possibility—that the coordinator could call the plays,” Bradley said in the same report.

The Jaguars trotted out the penultimate scoring defense, giving up 28 points per game.

They fielded the 24th-ranked defense in terms of yards, giving up 375 per game. The Jaguars ranked 29th against the pass, giving up roughly 270 yards per game.

In probably the most common mock draft selection besides Tunsil to Tennessee, Florida State's Jalen Ramsey seems to be the consensus pick for the Jaguars. They haven't drafted a corner since 1999, per Brugler, but that might change, if all goes according to plan.

Vernon Hargreaves is rising up the charts, but Ramsey has been the top cornerback since the beginning, and the Jaguars should pick him.

With his versatility to play both safety and cornerback, Ramsey could be a longtime part of that defense.

And with the return of last year's first-rounder Dante Fowler Jr. returning from injury, the Jaguars could be on their way to building a good defense.

Miami Dolphins (No. 8)

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Before the 2016 season even begins, the Miami Dolphins are about $2.5 million above the projected $150 million salary cap, according to Spotrac.com. And, roughly $90 million is already committed to the defense.

Well, the new regime—the GM and head coach—needs to get that defense back on track.

The last defensive player the Dolphins drafted in the first round was Dion Jordan in 2013, so they could benefit immediately from a top-10 pick.

With cornerback Brent Grimes approaching his mid-30s, the Dolphins need to take a defensive back to reinforce a secondary that ranked 21st in the league in passing yards allowed.

Mock drafts have the Dolphins taking Clemson's Shaq Lawson or Oregon's DeForest Buckner at No. 8—both defensive linemen could help the pass rush.

But, with Jalen Ramsey likely gone to the Jaguars, Vernon Hargreaves is the best corner left on the board.

And, if he grades out as high as Ramsey does in workouts and at the combine, then Hargreaves can be a day-one starter who upgrades the Jacksonville secondary.

New Orleans Saints (No. 12)

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According to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com, Sean Payton has been confirmed as the New Orleans Saints' head coach, Mickey Loomis is staying as the GM and Drew Brees will remain the quarterback.

Now, the Saints can refocus on their defense and the status of the team. They should look to improve the interior of the offensive line and even select a quarterback in the draft.

But those are for the later rounds.

For all of his offensive schemes and talents, Payton has put together two of the worst defenses in NFL history.

The Saints gave up a hair less than 30 points per game and 413.8 yards per game. The defense also surrendered the most passing touchdowns in NFL history.

Furthermore, with 51 players under contract already for next season, the Saints are above the projected $150 million salary cap, per Spotrac.com.

Brees accounts for a huge chunk of that, but it makes the Saints' need to draft well even stronger.

So, who do they take?

Well, after the top 10, the draft boards begin to vary, but I'd go defensive end, especially if the Saints decide to stay in the 4-3 defense.

Around No. 12, Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche begins to surface. He possesses a lot of physical gifts, but his off-the-field issues seem to be undermining his talent.

So, if that's really worrisome, the Saints can go with Clemson's Shaq Lawson.

Lawson could be a viable pass-rusher for a defense that finished 25th in sacks. And with Brandon Browner patrolling that secondary, a fortified pass rush would be even more valuable.

Philadelphia Eagles (No. 13)

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Where to begin?

With the departure of Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles are in a state of limbo with the possibility of falling fast.

Because the coaching situation/GM search (or not-GM search) is so up in the air, the future of quarterback Sam Bradford is cloudy. If, say, Pat Shurmur is retained or made the head coach, then Bradford's chances of staying may increase because of their past relationship.

Regardless, the Eagles need a quarterback, a pass-rusher (although that would change if they re-sign Vinny Curry and shift back to the 4-3) and an offensive lineman.

At No. 13, the Eagles could go for a quarterback, but with the amount of holes on this team, it may be best to roll with Bradford instead. Then again, that depends on his price: It's so hard to justify $17-20 million per year for a quarterback on a team that is rebuilding.

And, if they do shift to a 4-3, Curry—granted he actually gets playing time—and Brandon Graham can rush the passer with a rookie drafted in the later rounds.

So, they should focus on an offensive tackle. Since Kelly's very first pick as a coach—when he took Lane Johnson—the Eagles have not touched an offensive lineman in the draft.

Left tackle Jason Peters is a year older, and center Jason Kelce had a subpar season.

At the Eagles' spot, tackles like Tunsil and Stanley will already be gone, so the best option remaining would be Ohio State's Taylor Decker.

Because Peters doesn't want to move from the left side in the short term (per Tim McManus of 97.5 The Fanatic, h/t Patrick Wall of Bleeding Green Nation), and the long-term option would be Johnson moving to the blind side, Decker fits because he has played on both sides and wouldn't be limited to one or the other, per Dan Kadar of SBNation.

Detroit Lions (No. 16)

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The Lions are still searching for a general manager, so the future of head coach Jim Caldwell is unknown.

So, with a new GM coming in—and if Caldwell is kept—the Lions will need to make sure they hit on their first pick. And if Megatron does retire, it would create a need at wide receiver.

But, the Lions also need offensive line help.

The Lions allowed quarterback Matthew Stafford to get sacked 44 times. They averaged 3.8 yards per carry too, good for 26th in the league.

With that said, they should take the fourth tackle off the board: Michigan State's Jack Conklin.

“Conklin can play left tackle, right tackle or possibly even guard, but it's hard to say that LT is his sure home—hence his spot a notch below Decker,” wrote SI.com's Chris Burke.

Conklin's ability to play multiple positions on the line is something the Lions need. And, at No. 16, he could fall right into their laps.

Indianapolis Colts (No. 18)

Brody Schmidt/Associated Press

The Indianapolis Colts have to be on this list.

When all seemed to be lost for head coach Chuck Pagano, he got an extension.

So, deductive reasoning would say that if Pagano is staying, then that means GM Ryan Grigson—who didn't get along with Pagano—would be the one to depart.

Well, Grigson got a contract, too.

And, to compound it all, team owner Jim Irsay put both on notice, saying that Pagano and Grigson are “tied at the hip,” according to Mike Chappell of CBS4Indy.com.

Now, the Colts may have the most pressure on them to hit on their draft picks. With weaknesses on the offensive line—mainly the right side—and at the cornerback and running back positions, it becomes a matter of priority.

To me, especially in this NFL, the lines are still as important as ever.

Running backs may be important, but the position has been trending down in terms of positional production.

Only seven running backs broke 1,000 yards in 2015 (to be fair that includes injuries to usual 1,000-yard rushers Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell), which was down from 13 in 2013 and 2014 and 16 in 2012.

So is a running back like Ezekiel Elliot worth the No. 18 pick when the Colts have other glaring weaknesses? There's certainly an argument, but the defensive line should be priority No. 1 for this team.

If the Atlanta Falcons pass on Nkemdiche, which most mocks don't believe will happen, then he would be a viable option here, barring any more revelations about his off-the-field issues.

Regardless, I'll say the Colts go with Emmanuel Ogbah here. They need a pass-rusher, and the red flags surrounding Nkemdiche's stock makes Ogbah the safer pick...for now. 

Buffalo Bills (No. 19)

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula gave both head coach Rex Ryan and GM Doug Whaley next season to get the franchise to the playoffs, according to Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News.

And with Mario Williams underperforming (quitting may be a better word) and seemingly on his way out, per the Associated Press' John Wawrow (h/t SI.com)—he’s racked up only four sacks this season—the Bills will have some much-needed cap space but also a need for a defensive linemen.

This is under the assumption that left tackle Cordy Glenn gets re-signed. It’s still early in the process. Even then, there are always linemen to take in the latter parts of the draft to add depth, if the team decides to franchise him.

It’s here where I think Nkemdiche can go. If he does, he can make an instant impact for that defense.

One mock has the Bills taking Ogbah, but at 6’4”, 269 pounds, he’s a little too light for a 5-technique lineman, which the Bills could use. Nkemdiche is 6’5”, 293 pounds.

Truth be told, some things have to break in favor for Buffalo with this pick. For one, the Falcons—who desperately need a pass-rusher—have to skip Nkemdiche.

The Saints, who also need a pass-rusher, could take him at No. 12. The Colts could take him one pick before the Bills at No. 18. 

Since the process is still so new, we don’t really know how much of a dark cloud is over Nkemdiche. It is possible that teams would rather not use their first-round pick to take him.

We saw Denver’s Shane Ray—a projected top-10 pick last year—drop until the latter part of the first round due to off-the-field issues.

It’s not like Ryan has a thing against players who can cause distractions, considering he signed IK Enemkpali after his incident with New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith.

Then again, Ray doesn’t measure up to Nkemdiche’s size or athleticism, so it’s possible teams are more likely to take the chance with him.

Regardless, if the Bills can land Nkemdiche and he reaches his potential, it would be a steal at that spot.

And if Nkemdiche is off the board, then Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson could be a solid substitute for Buffalo.