Bold Predictions for College Basketball for the New Year

The new year is all about two things—resolutions and figuring out what it will bring.

Figure 2016 will be an exciting, intriguing time for college basketball.

We're high on Michigan State Spartans star Denzel Valentine, even though he's out of commission for a little while with a knee injury.

We're high on the ACC but somewhat concerned about Kansas and Kentucky.

There are upstarts like Northwestern to consider. And we'll even talk about the upcoming three months of the season's most charming story so far, Monmouth.

Here are bold predictions heading into conference play as we start gearing up for championships and brackets, as well as at-large bids. Will we be perfect with these opinions? No way. But we're going to try to examine some things that could (or could not) happen with a few good bounces.

Denzel Valentine Will Still Be Player of the Year

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The race for college Player of the Year focuses on three guys right now.

Buddy Hield could put himself in prime contention if the Oklahoma Sooners keep rolling. Kris Dunn at Providence will be in the mix because he's such a versatile, valuable threat.

But we're going to suggest Michigan State's Denzel Valentine will be at the top of the charts when the season ends—even after time missed. The versatile guard-forward's knee surgery will keep him out a few more weeks, which will give Hield, Dunn and a few others a chance to showcase themselves.

But the Spartans have already struggled without him, needing overtime to defeat Oakland and then following that with a loss to Iowa.

If that's not the meaning of valuable, we don't know what is. Valentine leads the Spartans in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. His triple-double early in the season against Kansas only looks better as the Jayhawks thrive.

MSU won't forget how important Valentine is anytime soon. Neither will end-of-the-season awards voters.

Kansas Will Not Win the Big 12

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This seems absurd to even guess.

Haven't we been talking about Kansas not winning the Big 12 at various times over the past 11 years?

But these Jayhawks, while getting increasingly better in the early season, aren't perfect. Perry Ellis can disappear at times. There's always going to be some caution in Lawrence about Wayne Selden Jr. And can the two-point guard thing (with Devonte' Graham and Frank Mason III) continue to work?

KU has been the dominant Big 12 team because it's so unbeatable at home. But this year there's an even bigger, more experienced feel to the league. The Jan. 4 home game with Oklahoma will be a real barnburner early in conference play.

Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor also possess a lot of talent that won't exactly be run out of Allen Fieldhouse by intimidation.

Look, we said at the beginning—these are bold predictions. KU is going to have every chance to make it 12 in a row. But it's not a sure thing, especially as teams are capable of competing in Allen Fieldhouse and even more capable of getting after KU when it's on the road.

In some ways we like the Jayhawks' chances to run deep into March more than to win another conference title.

Monmouth Will Not Be Worthy of an at-Large Bid

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The most entertaining story of the college basketball season so far has a pretty awesome portfolio of wins attached.

Will it be good enough to earn at least an at-large NCAA tournament bid?

We will see. Our guess is Monmouth better finish no worse than second place in the lowly regarded MAAC to be in consideration.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm sees a couple of bids coming out of the MAAC, with Iona as the champ.

But Monmouth already lost an early conference game at Canisius, and coach King Rice is showing some wear and tear from the constant lovefest awarded to his Hawks after the season's first two months.

Monmouth recently lost to Army, after which Rice said, per CBS Sports' Matt Norlander:

"

If everyone would stop talking about, 'We're so great, we should go to the tournament and we should be ranked. When I'm the coach, nobody's making the tournament today. There's high-major schools who are looking like they're going (to the NCAAs) now—and they're not going to make. So, please, can everyone stop talking about how Monmouth is going to the tournament? We'll be in the tournament if we win our conference.

"

Do we want the bench fun at Monmouth to go away? No way. This is a team that has already beaten Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgetown and USC. But it still has a slim margin for error based on the league respect.

According to KenPom.com, Monmouth's rankings advantage is large over Iona. But will the expectations Rice's team has created weigh it down?

It's certainly possible.

The Consistency of Refs Will Hold Up

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Maybe this isn't so much a bold prediction as much as a wish.

So far, the refereeing has seemed quite good. We're seeing faster, cleaner games, and there isn't quite as much moaning about the overall product. Sure, it's not perfect.

But as we jump into 2016, we feel the new year won't get away from what has mostly been a pleasant start to the college basketball season.

Ken Pomeroy made this Twitter observation on New Year's Day: On Dec. 31, 2014, the teams playing that day scored an average of 63.5 points per game.

On the final day of 2015—only in games being played that particular day—the number shot up to 75.3.

Sure, there are other variables for the drastic scoring increase. But for a decent litmus test of games, we've got to say the changes have been for the better. Less defensive contact allowed in general has created more free-moving offensive sets. Or, if teams have challenged referees by remaining physical while guarding, they've often been required to back down at some point because of foul trouble.

Sometimes, it's meant too much "star power" getting into unfortunate situations that have required early benching. What we've got now is not perfect—there are still situations we'd probably all like to have a little more physical play allowed—but on the whole, it's been more consistent.

Let's hope it stays that way the next two months.

In previous years, there have been concerns nationally between coaches and officials that new rules went out the window once conference play started. It was back to old habits, and lots of contact (grabbing, etc.).

In general, it sure looks like the game has changed for the better—faster and for the most part more entertaining, appealing to the eye along with the scoreboard.

Marquette Will Find a Way to Get an at-Large Bid

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Marquette recently gave second-year coach Steve Wojciechowski a contract extension and raise.

Like the school president, we're high on the direction of these Golden Eagles...even after a 20-point home loss to Seton Hall to start conference play.

They're still ahead of schedule. They went 13-19 last year and basically brought in a bunch of newer, talented, younger parts after just trying to get through last year.

A defense that has allowed less than one point per possession for much of the season also includes possibly the best Big East frontcourt tandem with freshman Henry Ellenson and junior Luke Fischer. Both are in-state products who have been marvels defensively, especially at protecting the rim.

Wojo has taken his Duke pedigree and built Marquette the right way so far. The future is a little closer now than we figured back in October.

It'll be important to keep an eye on it until the end of the regular season, when games against Villanova, Georgetown (both at home) and Butler pop up.

The ACC Will Get 10 Teams into the NCAA Tournament

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The fact Georgia Tech is even in talks for an NCAA at-large bid says as much about the Yellow Jackets as it does about the ACC’s power in numbers.

Getting 10 teams in the tournament isn’t outlandish in this particular year, when the Pac-12 and Big Ten don’t seem as strong and not as many of the middle-tier conferences will figure to suck up as many bids (the West Coast Conference, for example, looks clearly like Gonzaga’s turf even with the Bulldogs down—and neither BYU nor Saint Mary’s is putting together incredible early-season portfolios).

Tech has defeated Tennessee and VCU on the strength of an improved offense that has avoided some of the snakebites of last year's struggles in close games.

We know the ACC is loaded on its very highest shelf. This is a league that could cannibalize itself a little bit over the next couple of months. That could help out the "middle class" immensely in producing quality wins.

That could mean some bad things when we start talking NCAA tournament seed lines. As for bids, however, a perfect storm could be brewing for the blue-blood league to get a hefty number of teams in the field.

Syracuse is slumping, but could still rally at 10-5 with a KenPom ranking of No. 62.

Eight teams—Virginia, Louisville, Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Florida State are all above the Orange in KenPom's rankings. Georgia Tech (71), North Carolina State (77), Clemson (88) and Wake Forest (96) are within range.

Wichita State Will Get It Going Just Fine

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It's easy to write off 7-5 teams.

Wichita State is a different story, though.

Pardon us for being fans here, but we're not ready to see this Shockers run fade off into the sunset (or the NIT, whatever is harsher).

Fred VanVleet is back in working order. The high expectations placed on this group—with the return of Ron Baker and coach Gregg Marshall—have made for some chaos in the first two months. Consecutive losses to USC, Alabama and Iowa leave the Shockers without much of a portfolio.

But WSU should be fully ready to take advantage of a down Missouri Valley Conference. KenPom.com predicts the Shockers will only lose one conference game. And they're still ranked 36th nationally, too.

So, this group should be more than good enough to work its way back into the at-large-bid picture. Or, at the very worst, it's good enough win the automatic bid from the conference tournament.

We hear all the time that NCAA tournament bids aren't based on previous years' successes. Fair enough. But we have to figure, despite WSU's early issues, the 10-member tournament committee will give an experienced group like this one every possible benefit of the doubt to get it turned around.

Kentucky Won't Win the SEC

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We know this isn't last year's Kentucky team.

Also, an improved SEC will make the Wildcats' bid for a second consecutive regular-season title—despite continued hype around John Calipari's program—a tough road to haul.

UK is still the top-ranked SEC team, according to KenPom.com. But at No. 15, the distance isn't that great from the competition. Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, upstart South Carolina and resurgent Florida also find themselves in the top 26.

Remember, Calipari's teams haven't exactly dominated the league outside of last year (when the Wildcats won all 18 games) or the national title season of 2012.

They've finished second in 2013 and 2014, so this isn't an outlandish guess.

This particular team has had trouble playing some winning basketball. The perceived underachievement of freshman big man Skal Labissiere has also been a dark cloud.

Throw in some revved-up SEC fanbases that sense hope—and Wildcat blood—and it's possible to see that this could be a tough two months for UK, which went 12-6 each of the two seasons in conference play before last year's demolition derby.

Kentucky is hardly a great-shooting outside team (31.7 percent from three-point range) and doesn't exactly dominate at both ends of the floor inside.

This could well be a year for payback from other squads.

Northwestern Will Make the NCAA Tournament

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Guessing a 13-1 team will eventually make the NCAA tournament isn't exactly a bold prediction.

But we're counting on Northwestern to hang on to its impeccable start. That would be something special, considering the Wildcats have never made an NCAA tournament.

A team that went 15-17 last year has only lost to North Carolina. That's hardly anything to be ashamed about.

Now, NU's schedule hasn't exactly been a terror, much less anything to brag about.

But we do like that NU took care of business on the road against Nebraska to start Big Ten play Dec. 30.

Sophomore guard Bryant McIntosh leads the way for a surprisingly efficient offense. And it's a team that can get contributions off the bench, too.

Freshman Dererk Pardon had 28 points and 12 rebounds in his second college game and led his team back from a 12-point second-half deficit in an 81-72 victory in Lincoln.

Coach Chris Collins, in his third year at NU, could be bound to make some special history for the Chicago-area school that is known for many, many things besides basketball. That should change this year.

All Four No. 1 Seeds Will Make the Final Four

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Hey, if we're going to go bold—we might as well go a little crazy.

We know all four No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four just once in the modern era—2008.

It would be silly to compare the future-level talent of this year's top teams to those that year, which featured UCLA studs (Kevin Love, among others), Kansas' depth, Memphis superstar (Derrick Rose) and North Carolina's talent-laden roster (NBA players galore). Those were four clear-cut No. 1 seeds and it makes perfect sense, even now, that they all advanced together.

But this season does feature an ample amount of experienced talent, which could bode well for an elite group of about eight teams. True, last we checked, there can only be four No. 1 seeds.

With this being a year of parity, this "All No. 1 seed" Final Four is a really tough call. But those at the top have more than enough talent and experience to get over past tournament heartbreaks and see stellar seasons hold up until the final weekend.

It's unlikely, but boldly possible, that four of these teams could rise above and win four straight games apiece to start the NCAA tournament.

Figure Kansas, preseason No. 1 North Carolina, Oklahoma and Michigan State (assuming Denzel Valentine's healthy) have the makings of four fine No. 1 seeds down the road. They're not invincible, but they're perhaps the least vulnerable. That's a place to start with a bold prediction like this one.

All statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.