Stanford vs. Iowa: Odds and Score Prediction for Rose Bowl 2016

The Iowa Hawkeyes' 12 wins are already a school record, and the Big Ten runners-up will hope to close out their historic season in style when they take on the Stanford Cardinal in the 2016 Rose Bowl.

Stanford has become a fixture in Pasadena, California, of late, making the trip south in three of the last four seasons; the Pac-12 champions are 1-1 in the previous two occasions.

The two College Football Playoff semifinal games cast a major shadow over the remaining New Year's Six bowls, but the Rose Bowl is one of the most prestigious games in college football. It's not really the new year until you take a seat on the couch and watch the Granddaddy of Them All:

Date	Time	TV Info	Live Stream	Odds
Friday, Jan. 1	5 p.m. ET	ESPN	Watch ESPN	Stanford (-6)

Iowa's defensive game plan will begin and end with slowing down Christian McCaffrey. The Heisman Trophy runner-up broke the FBS record for all-purpose yards (3,496), surpassing 1988 Heisman winner Barry Sanders in the process.

McCaffrey's versatility is one of the many reasons the Cardinal running back is so difficult to stop.

"You've got to make sure you know where he's at, (because) he's at the quarterback, he's at wide receiver, they put him in the backfield," said Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker, per Greg Beacham of the Associated Press. "It's going to be hard. It's going to be a good competition for us."

Smart Football's Chris B. Brown explained in great detail that Stanford particularly loves using McCaffrey in its halfback option scheme, which includes one receiver running a vertical route, another running a "stick" route, and the halfback or slot receiver going into the flat:

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Against zone coverages, the flat, stick and option route (which has settled between the linebackers) create a horizontal stretch on the underneath zone defenders that should produce an open receiver for a steady gain. But against man-to-man coverage, the stick concept pulls defenders out of the box leaving the option route one-on-one in space — and when that’s one-on-one is Christian McCaffrey versus a linebacker or safety, the defense is in trouble.

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The Hawkeyes haven't seen a player as dynamic as McCaffrey this year, nor have they faced the kind of offense the Cardinal will run.

McCaffrey isn't unstoppable, though, and a big performance from him doesn't guarantee a Stanford victory. He ran for just 66 yards—his second-lowest total of the season—in the Cardinal's loss to Northwestern to start the year, and his 147 yards on the ground weren't enough to give them a win against Oregon in November.

In addition to limiting McCaffrey, Bleacher Report's Michael Felder argued Iowa's chances for success hinge on Jordan Canzeri:

The senior running back was injured in the Big Ten Championship, and the worry from a Hawkeyes perspective was that he wouldn't be 100 percent for the Rose Bowl. Canzeri was quick to put that speculation to bed, per Andy Garman of KCCI-TV:

The Cardinal were far from dominant this year when it came to stopping the run. They've allowed 146.9 yards a game on the ground this year (44th in FBS) and 4.6 yards a carry (87th in FBS). Football Outsiders also ranks Stanford 65th in S&P+ run defense rating.

Field position could be a serious concern for Iowa since it's started inside its own 20-yard line on 23.4 percent of its offensive possessions, per Football Outsiders. Should the Hawkeyes start a fourth of their possessions close to their own goal line in the Rose Bowl, Canzeri could mitigate the effects if he's regularly getting four or five yards a carry.

Rarely do you see a team gain respect in a losing effort, but that's exactly what happened to Iowa after it lost the Big Ten title to Michigan State. The Hawkeyes should hold their own against Stanford, but the Cardinal offense, McCaffrey in particular, will prove too much to overcome.

Prediction: Stanford 30, Iowa 17

Note: Rose Bowl odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.