Michigan State vs. Alabama: Odds and Prediction for Cotton Bowl 2015

The College Football Playoff is here, and it figures to be glorious. Between an Orange Bowl matchup pitting No. 1 Clemson against No. 4 Oklahoma and a Cotton Bowl showdown featuring stout defenses from Alabama and Michigan State, there's plenty to be excited for on New Year's Eve. 

But for now, the focus is on Thursday evening's prime-time tilt between the No. 2 Crimson Tide and No. 3 Spartans, which is slated to get underway following a 4 p.m. ET clash in Miami. 

So before breaking down the odds and offering a preview of what's to come in Arlington, Texas, here's when and where you can view Thursday's Cotton Bowl. 

Schedule, Viewing Information and Odds

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Spread: Alabama -10

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

Preview and Prediction

The Cotton Bowl has been billed as a potential defensive slugfest, and for good reason. Alabama owns the nation's third-ranked scoring defense at 14.4 points per game, while Michigan State clocks in at No. 19 overall, allowing a respectable 20.5 points per outing. 

And with hours to go until kickoff, Michigan State co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel appears ready for a smashmouth affair, according to MLive.com's Mike Griffith: 

"

"We've gone into a few games this year with this bloodbath mentality," Tressel said. "We knew going against Iowa in the Big Ten championship it was going to be pound, pound, pound for 60 minutes .... You go into Ohio State with Ezekiel Elliott, you understand you need to stop the run every single play, there can't be a deep breath."

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When it comes to stopping the run, the Spartans will need to become the first team this season to truly shut down Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. 

To understand just how difficult it is to stop Henry, consider a few facts: Not only did he lead the country with 1,986 rushing yards while totaling 23 rushing touchdowns, but he ripped off 69 percent of his total yards after contact, according to Griffith. 

As if that wasn't absurd enough, Henry rushed for 521 yards in the fourth quarter—just 29 yards shy of his first-quarter total, per the Associated Press (via the New York Times). 

"The thing about the workload is I wished we played him the week right after he had consecutive 40-carry games,” Tressel said, according to the Associated Press. "But with the break that he’s had right now he could carry the ball 80 times, and he’d be fine."

And therein lies the problem. With fresh legs, Henry should have no problem shouldering his usual workload—and then some—against Michigan State's aggressive front seven.

Michigan State, however, doesn't have a weapon it can default to play after play until Alabama's defense wears down. Quarterback Connor Cook has proved to be prolific in spots, though, so the Spartans will need to hope he brings a gunslinger's mentality in an effort to replicate Ole Miss' winning formula from earlier this season. 

"In Alabama's lone loss of the season, Ole Miss scored two touchdowns longer than 60 yards," AL.com's John Talty wrote. "There was flukiness involved -- one bounced off a player's helmet and into Quincy Adeboyejo's waiting arms -- but the Rebels did capitalize on a young secondary."

If Cook can find success on downfield throws and keep Alabama's defense honest early, things should get interesting. But when the fourth quarter rolls around, don't be surprised if the Tide turn to their Heisman Trophy winner to ice things. 

 

Prediction: Alabama defeats Michigan State, 28-20