Major League Baseball: Calculating the Pythagorean Standings

The Detroit Tigers currently lead the AL Central by two-and-a-half games over the Minnesota Twins. While neither team is exactly taking the league by storm, it is the only interesting race as we enter the stretch run.

There is a statistic out there called Pythagorean Record. It basically shows a team’s win-loss record based on its run differential.

The theory here is that run differential is a good indicator of how good a team really is. Granted, it doesn’t mean a thing in reality, but it is kind of fun to look at.

Let’s take a look:

(Pythagorean Record: difference from real record)

AL East

1. Yankees (89-63, -7)
2. Red Sox (86-64, -3)
3. Rays (81-70, +4)
4. Blue Jays (76-76, +8)
5. Orioles (65-86, +5)

AL Central

1. Twins (78-73, E)
2. Tigers (75-75, -5)
3. White Sox (74-78, +1)
4. Indians (68-82, +7)
5. Royals (65-86, +2)

AL West

1. Angels (86-65, -4)
2. Rangers (79-71, -3)
3. Athletics (77-74, +5)
4. Mariners (69-82, -10)

Teams that have negative numbers are teams that have a real record that is better than their run differential indicates. Teams with positive numbers are teams that have a real record worse than their run differential.

There aren’t any huge red flags here.

The Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are not great teams, but they are pretty equal. They all have some major flaws, but all flaws being equal the Tigers should be a bit closer to the .500 mark and the White Sox should still be in the race.

The only real crazy number we see here is from the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are currently 79-72, but their run differential says they should be much worse.