Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers (10-5) and Minnesota Vikings (10-5) will be fighting for the NFC North title at Lambeau Field in the Week 17 Sunday night game to close out the 2015 regular season. The Packers won the first meeting this year 30-13 as one-point road underdogs at Minnesota in Week 11, and they have gone 5-0-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the past six games between the teams at home.

Point spread: Packers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.4-17.0 Packers

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs heading into Green Bay, where they have not won since 2009. They did earn a 26-26 tie there two years ago, though, covering as six-point dogs. However, this is a much different Minnesota team with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center, and he actually outplayed Aaron Rodgers in the first meeting despite the loss.

Bridgewater completed 25 of 37 passes for 296 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against the Packers while also rushing for a season-high 43 yards on four carries, although he was sacked six times for 48 yards. Last season he did not play in the team’s 42-10 loss at Lambeau due to injury—instead it was backup Christian Ponder—so his presence gives the Vikes a shot to cover, and possibly pull off the upset.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay was again looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender before getting crushed 38-8 last week by the Arizona Cardinals as six-point road underdogs. The team had won three in a row both SU and ATS, with two of the games taking place on the road.

A victory against Minnesota would give the Packers the division title and a first-round playoff matchup with either the Vikings or Seattle Seahawks. A loss would likely send them to the road versus the Washington Redskins. While the latter scenario might seem more appealing, you can expect them to be extra motivated to bounce back in this spot and win the NFC North for the fifth consecutive year rather than going the wild-card route—even though that is the path they followed to win the Super Bowl five years ago.

Smart pick

The Vikings have not seen a point spread this small at Green Bay since 2011, when they lost 28-24 as 2.5-point dogs. While they are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers, the recent tie remains the only time in the last six games there that Minnesota has not lost by four points or more. The Packers defense has to make a statement before the playoffs begin, and this is the last opportunity to do so. Look for Green Bay to limit Minnesota’s offense and complete the sweep with a home victory and cover.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 0-5-1 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Packers.

The Packers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against their division.

The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.