2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 16
Out of the 32 franchises in the NFL, there are only 14 with playoff potential remaining.
That means 18 squads have already been eliminated from postseason contention. The entire NFC is locked in, with six qualifying playoff teams, no more and no less, heading into the final week of the season. The 8-7 Washington Redskins have won the NFC East and clinched the fourth playoff seed, meaning a team just over .500 has afforded itself a rest week.
2015 has been weird.
Before the new year comes along, though, we'll focus on a topic for those 18 fan bases who are already looking at the future: the NFL draft. Since last week's stock report update, there have been 13 bowl games played, and the deeper we get into bowl season, the more draftable prospects we get to witness in these matchups.
If your team has lost hope for a title run, don't fret. There were three risers this week you want to remember to circle on your wish list as well as a gradually falling star you probably want to avoid.
We'll cap this week's article off with a top 10 mock draft, just to give you all a morsel of what you're going to be ingesting for the next four months.
Stock Up: Dadi Nicolas, EDGE, Virginia Tech
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I'm still lower on Dadi Nicolas than I was heading into Week 1, but he finally started to generate positive momentum at the end of the season.
According to Virginia Tech's official site, he's playing defensive end at 6'3" and 223 pounds. Per NFL Draft Scout, he's listed just over 6'2.5" and 236 pounds. Either way, he's on the very outskirts of "tweener" and "undraftable" based on his frame.
Unfortunately for him, the Hokies didn't play him to his strengths either.
At the NFL level, he won't be asked to put his hand in the dirt as a run-stopper, as his frame isn't suited for anything more than being a situational speed pass-rusher in a 4-3 defense. Frank Beamer and Co. decided it would be a smart idea to play Nicolas inside or on the offensive tackle often, essentially making the linebacker-sized defensive end play a defensive tackle.
This is why he went from a player totaling 72 tackles, 18.5 tackles for losses and nine sacks in 2014 to a prospect whose numbers dropped to 45, seven and 2.5 in those respective categories as a senior.
My hope was that he'd have a Melvin Ingram type of rise, a pass-rusher who turned a nine-sack season as a junior into a 10-sack season as a senior and was drafted 18th overall out of the University of South Carolina. He also had size issues. But after years of development, he's posted a 9.5-sack season with the San Diego Chargers with one week left in the season.
Taking Nicolas off the edge, out of space, and placing him into a booth was the worst-case scenario for the senior. In Virginia Tech's bowl game against Tulsa, a shootout of an Independence Bowl, Nicolas was asked to play a true pass-rushing role several times, and one play even resulted in a game-clinching sack.
NFL scouts will fall in love with talent, which Nicolas clearly has. But it was masked by scheme this season. If he's able to break out of the box the Hokie staff placed him in during the Senior Bowl, there is still plenty of room for him to grow, as he also projects to be a "combine guy."
Current draft projection: Day 2 pick
Stock Down: Nate Sudfeld, QB, Indiana
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Whenever a quarterback plays in a major college game, he's going to be picked apart. Against Duke in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Nate Sudfeld, Indiana's signal-caller, completed 54.9 percent of his passes and threw multiple interceptions for just the second time in 2015. The other was in a 55-52 loss to Rutgers.
The Hoosiers' bowl game in Yankee Stadium also ended in a heartbreaker, as the Blue Devils came away with a 44-41 win in overtime. The threshold between a win and a loss could easily have been one of Sudfeld's poorly directed passes.
The California Kid took over the Indiana job as a true sophomore in 2013 with big expectations, as he had an NFL bloodline and a 6'6" frame. After a shoulder injury ended his junior year, though, we haven't seen much progress. He's still the same raw, traditional dropback passer that we saw earlier in his collegiate career.
Sudfeld still has the tools to become an NFL quarterback, but how much time is a franchise willing to invest?
Landry Jones was a similar player coming out of Oklahoma. He was drafted in the fourth round three years ago and has mostly been the third-string quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He did net two starts this season due to injury, resulting in a 1-1 record.
Our Hoosier might be three or four years from taking over a franchise. Does any team have that type of time to put into a Day 3 draft selection? As of right now, Sudfeld isn't even a Senior Bowl candidate, but he's an East-West Shrine Game prospect. Last year, not a single Shrine Game quarterback was drafted in the spring.
Current draft projection: Seventh-round pick
Stock Up: Maliek Collins, DL, Nebraska
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Maliek Collins is a player who should have been featured in this series long ago. But after Nebraska dropped those nail-biters early on in the season, it was hard to find a marquee matchup to focus on for the Cornerhuskers. After qualifying for the Foster Farms Bowl, we finally found an excuse to make Collins the focal point of the college football slate.
Collins is part of an incredibly young group of defenders that has grown together at Nebraska. Watching his class, I would have assumed defensive tackle Vincent Valentine or linebacker Michael Rose-Ivey, another St. Louis, Missouri, product, would have been the defense's studs after the 2013 season. But as a sophomore in 2014, Collins stole the limelight.
He's a bigger interior lineman, at 6'2" and 300 pounds, but only on the relative scale of college players. He is often used as a one-technique nose tackle, when in reality he's going to be a three-technique undertackle at the next level. Baylor's Andrew Billings is going through the same situation with the Bears. At the combine, we'll find out how explosive these penetrators are, as they're being asked to play run-first football in their current schemes.
Collins very well could be the best Nebraska product since Ndamukong Suh nearly made a legitimate Heisman run while in red and white. He has the potential to sneak into the first round with a quality draft cycle, as everyone is going to envy a big man who can move. The true junior and 1995-born prospect has already decided to turn professional at a young age. The arrow is only going up for him.
Current draft projection: Late first-round pick
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Stock Up: Mike Thomas, WR, Southern Mississippi
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You know Michael Thomas the receiver, but not this one. The Thomas you're familiar with plays for the Ohio State Buckeyes, while this week's rising skill player is a Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle. He had nine receptions, two touchdowns and 190 receiving yards in the Heart of Dallas Bowl against the Power Five Washington Huskies.
If you haven't been able to catch a glimpse of Thomas this year, his highlights are fairly astounding. He's not really a blazer or a giant red-zone target, but he has a consistent all-around game for someone who has only played two years of major college football. And he contests for catches.
Recent players who compare are Stedman Bailey, formerly of West Virginia and now with the St. Louis Rams, and Markus Wheaton, formerly of Oregon State and now with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Don't blink, as this once off-the-radar prospect has a good chance to be the rising receiver in the next few months. He's landed an invite to the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl. In 2014, Khyri Thornton, a Southern Mississippi defensive lineman, was invited to that game—which is largely viewed as the third-tier all-star exhibition behind the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine Game—and was able to come out of that week with enough momentum to stick with the Green Bay Packers as the 85th overall draft choice in that class, a third-round pick.
It would be a stretch to say Thomas could pull that off with the positional depth being so strong at receiver. But for someone who has had limited time with high-level coaching, don't be shocked if he develops quickly in those Los Angeles practices.
Current draft projection: Seventh-round pick
Bonus: Top 10 Mock Draft
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1. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
This selection is the no-brainer of the draft. Tunsil is the best prospect in the class, and the Tennessee Titans need to keep quarterback Marcus Mariota standing next season. Tunsil or Taylor Lewan can play either right or left tackle.
2. Cleveland Browns: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
The current staff in Cleveland doesn't appear to love Johnny Manziel, judging by how long it took to hand over the keys and how short his leash is. Is a new staff going to want to cosign a "character concern" who already got another staff canned? Cleveland takes the best quarterback available.
3. San Diego Chargers: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
This is a tough spot for the San Diego Chargers. Joey Bosa is the best player left, but he can't play five-technique defensive end and they already have invested in two young pass-rushing outside linebackers. Robert Nkemdiche comes with his fair share of concern, but he also has legitimate J.J. Watt potential.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
This is a slam dunk for Jerry Jones and Co. The best player available can replace that monster of a human known as Greg Hardy. The team will also be three-deep at defensive end with two other young players in DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory fighting for playing time. There are two holes and three potential plugs at the most important position on defense.
5. San Francisco 49ers: Jared Goff, QB, California
Organizationally, the San Francisco 49ers have looked weak over the past couple of seasons. Are they strong enough to turn down another California quarterback after the Alex Smith-Aaron Rodgers mistake? Even if he isn't the best player on the board?
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
There's a lot of development but uncertainty in the Jacksonville Jaguars organization.
There is plenty of young talent on the team, but there aren't really any cornerstones defensively, which partially has to do with the fact that their 2015 first-round pick, Dante Fowler, didn't play his rookie season.
Jalen Ramsey was an all-world safety and an All-ACC cornerback while at Florida State. Jacksonville could go back-to-back-to-back, in-state selections in the first round since 2014 with the new face of its defense, who can play three of the four starting positions in the secondary.
7. Miami Dolphins: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
The Miami Dolphins have needed linebacker help for years, and for years they've neglected the position. The leadership in the organization has turned over, and so should the team-building philosophy. Myles Jack is recovering from a knee issue, but he's the next generation's linebacker prototype and has been the best defender in the Pac-12 for years. Think of him as his position's version of Todd Gurley.
8. Baltimore Ravens: Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky
First, expect Noah Spence to be a big riser during the draft process, as he's the best pass-rushing 3-4 outside linebacker prospect in the class. The Baltimore Ravens don't pick high often, and they have had a good history hitting on "boom or bust" selections. Spence has had off-field issues pop up at two different schools, but if the Ravens can take him under their wing, we're looking at a Justin Houston type of situation.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
The biggest knock you're going to hear about Vernon Hargreaves is that he's not a jumbo cornerback like the Richard Shermans of the world. In Lovie Smith's defense, that's perfectly fine. What he looks for in cornerbacks typically revolves around twitchy, short-area coverage on the relative scale of NFL defenses, which is why Darrelle Revis was let go for his price tag.
Sticking in state, the Buccaneers get a value pick from a talent perspective on a player who doesn't fit with every team.
10. New York Giants: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi
If you managed to catch Sunday Night Football this week, you were able to see how the New York Giants offense functions without Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning has had games where he's thrown absolute fire this season, but it can't all come crashing down when one pass-catcher falls out of the race.
Laquon Treadwell is very similar to Dez Bryant but without the top-end speed. He's strong and aggressive, which is perfect for Manning's sometimes-sporadic attempts.
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