
Indianapolis Colts Week 16 Stock Report
The Indianapolis Colts' season may be all but over, but there are still two more games left.
The team will undoubtedly keep fighting, forever searching for that division title, but now our focus turns to the future. Even if the Colts do manage to win the division and make the playoffs, the future is much more interesting.
Despite their struggles this season, the Colts still have many valuable pieces for a long-term contender. It starts, of course, with Andrew Luck, but they'll also have Vontae Davis for a few more of his prime years, T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo locked into second contracts and promising players like Donte Moncrief, Jack Mewhort and Henry Anderson on rookie contracts.
Luck is the one who really makes it go, but you could see the Colts bouncing back to contention next year with a strong offseason and the right head coach in place.
So with that in mind, this stock report focuses on individuals' futures.
As the Colts go through the next few weeks, how are players' stocks rising and falling as it relates to their long-term future in Indianapolis?
Stock Up: Donte Moncrief
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On its face, Donte Moncrief's five-catch, 51-yard day against the Houston Texans in Week 15 isn't all that impressive, even with the one touchdown. But it was significant in the fact that it was Moncrief's second consecutive 50-yard game and his third in four weeks.
That's after having just three such games in the first 10 contests.
Moncrief now has six 50-yard games on the season, just one short of T.Y. Hilton's mark of seven as a second-year receiver in 2013. Consistent production is a strong sign for a second-year receiver, and only four players have ever hit seven such games in their second season: Hilton, Marvin Harrison, Pierre Garcon and Bill Brooks. Of the four, only Brooks failed to have a 1,000-yard season later in his career.
The fact that Moncrief has had this production in a poor passing offense makes it even more impressive.
Now, Moncrief has a chance to do something special in the final two games: join Hilton and Harrison as the only receivers in Indianapolis history to gain at least 800 yards in their second season. Moncrief needs just 80 yards to do so, and he's averaged more than 51 yards per game this season.
He'll start with a matchup with the Miami Dolphins secondary, which is extremely susceptible. The Dolphins are 31st in Football Outsiders' passing defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), including ranking 31st and 28th against No. 1 and No. 2 receivers, respectively.
Stock Down: Frank Gore
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Though those who have watched the games would likely still laud Frank Gore as the best running back the Colts have had since Joseph Addai left town, 2015 has not been kind on the veteran.
The injuries and struggles of the Colts quarterbacks, both Andrew Luck and Matt Hasselbeck, have allowed defenses to play close to the line of scrimmage, stuffing the run and not allowing the Colts to protect their quarterbacks with a consistent running game. The Colts' deep passing attack hasn't been dangerous at all, and defenses have no reason not to stack the box.
With the Colts' inconsistent-at-best offensive line, Gore has predictably struggled.
Sunday's game against the Texans marked Gore's fourth game this season averaging under three yards per carry and his 10th under four yards per carry (seventh consecutive).
Since Andrew Luck has gone out, Gore's numbers have plummeted.
In the first half of the season, Gore averaged 64 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. In the second half of the season (with two games remaining), Gore is averaging 48 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry.
The good news is that the Colts will face the worst run defenses they've seen in weeks over the next two games. The Dolphins are ranked 22nd in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, and the Tennessee Titans are ranked 25th.
Stock Up: Jerrell Freeman
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Though the Colts lost on Sunday, inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman once again had a stout game.
Pro Football Focus' grades are not gospel by any means, but its plus-4.6 grade for Freeman was the second-highest inside linebacker performance of the week. Freeman didn't miss a tackle, had five defensive stops and didn't get a single target in coverage.
This isn't totally unexpected from Freeman, either.
Though he was extremely inconsistent last season, playing through injury for most of the year, he's played well this season, particularly since the New England Patriots game in Week 6. The Patriots abused Freeman in coverage that day, but the former CFL player has rebounded well.
Since Week 7, Freeman is Pro Football Focus' second-highest graded linebacker behind only the Carolina Panthers' Luke Kuechly. For the year, Freeman ranks third.
Freeman's big year is critical for him personally because of his aforementioned inconsistencies last season. Freeman is 29 and came to the NFL the long way, and his first "big" contract very well could be his last.
Will that contract be in Indianapolis?
He'll enter free agency in 2016, and fortunately, the Colts should have a decent amount of cap space to use, especially if they cut veteran guys like D'Qwell Jackson (who'll be 33 in September) and Andre Johnson.
Stock Down: Jonotthan Harrison
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You have to give it to the Colts: They've given each of their "promising" young centers more than enough chances to earn a starting gig.
While the Colts' interior offensive line rotations have seemed haphazard in the past, the team stuck with Khaled Holmes for seven games this year before an injury knocked him out. Enter Jonotthan Harrison, whom the Colts have stuck with despite Holmes' health returning.
Harrison had a chance to seize the opportunity and turn it into something significant, but he's done absolutely nothing with it.
Sunday was another rough game for Harrison, who allowed four quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Those included two quarterback hits, including the bone-crushing hit from Whitney Mercilus that forced Hasselbeck to briefly leave the game in the fourth quarter.
Center is one of the Colts' biggest offensive line weaknesses, and the hope was that Harrison or Holmes would step up this season, giving the team a long-term option. Instead, Harrison has left us wanting each and every week.
Stock Up: Quan Bray
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To begin his tenure in Indianapolis, it was easy to be skeptical of Quan Bray.
Bray came to Indianapolis as an undrafted free agent this year, but he didn't really make an impact as a receiver in training camp and was waived. He was added to the practice squad, however, and the team added him to the active roster in late October to be the primary returner.
But the Colts have had unlucky experiences with returners in the past, and they've often been more of a hindrance than a help.
Bray did return four kicks for 17 yards in his first game against the Carolina Panthers, and it was a sign of things to come. Unlike other returners for Indianapolis this year, Bray hasn't fumbled on a punt or kickoff, and he's had big plays in both situations.
Against the Texans on Sunday, Bray was a huge factor in Indianapolis' great field position throughout the game, including punt returns of 33, 19 and 15 yards. Bray is now Pro Football Focus' fourth-ranked kick returner despite playing just seven games.
Signed under contract for another year, Bray has at least played himself into the incumbent role for 2016. He has two more weeks to solidify that role, ensuring the Colts don't go after five or six more competitors for next year's training camp battle.
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