Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) will go for their ninth consecutive win and try to clinch a playoff berth when they host the Cleveland Browns (3-11) on Sunday. The Chiefs have gone 7-1 against the spread in winning their last eight games following a terrible 1-5 start. The Browns have lost nine of their past 10 road games but have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three as underdogs versus Kansas City.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 12.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.6-9.0 Chiefs

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is a double-digit underdog for the third time this season and the second week in a row, nearly covering the spread last Sunday in a 30-13 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The Browns closed as 14-point dogs at Seattle and were covering until the fourth quarter when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass to wide receiver Tyler Lockett. Still, they had their chances and will against the Chiefs, too.

Dating back to 2009, Cleveland is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games as a double-digit dog with two wins over that period. Two of the failed covers took place this season on the road against Seattle and the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Browns have not gone three consecutive times as double-digit dogs without beating the spread in 19 games.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

On the other side, Kansas City has performed well as a double-digit favorite outside of two divisional games among the last seven times the team has been in this situation. The Chiefs did not cover as 11.5-point home favorites in a 10-3 win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 but had gone 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as a double-digit fave. That is also the only game they have not covered during their winning streak.

Kansas City is the hottest team in the AFC right now and has a lot on the line here as well. The Chiefs cannot afford to lose and will clinch a playoff spot with a victory and a loss by either the New York Jets or the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets seem to be the more likely of the two to lose since they are hosting the New England Patriots, although it is definitely possible that the wild-card playoff race could come down to Week 17.

Smart pick

Cleveland will be overmatched at Kansas City just like last week at Seattle. The slightly smaller point spread works in favor of the Chiefs because they can win by two touchdowns to cover. Of course, that could change before Sunday, so back Kansas City earlier than later to win its ninth straight and cover for the eighth time during that stretch.

Betting trends

The Browns are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games on the road.

The Browns are 0-3 SU in their last three games against the AFC West division.

The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.