Predicting Which Mid-Major College Basketball Stars Have NBA Futures
Life is a little easier for mid-major players these days.
Leave the NBA lottery for the one-and-doners and the blue bloods. That's OK. A new stratum has drifted down onto college basketball: the veteran. Seasoned by experience and often traveling in packs, these individuals find success at the college level that, if leavened with genuine talent, can sometimes vault said individuals into the pros.
In other words, you don't have to be a 5-star elite or play in a power conference to turn heads. It helps, but it's not a requirement, at least not to the extent it once was.
Here are the mid-major players who stand a chance to be drafted into the NBA and to play well once they're there.
9. Alec Peters, Forward, Valparaiso
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Projected draft ranking: Unranked
Key college career stats: 16.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 45.2 percent 3FG this season
At 6'9" and 230 pounds, Alec Peters is a substantial presence in any game. He is a terrific shooter from any distance, has good ball-handling and has a more rugged rebounding game than you might think.
The junior may benefit from another year in school to develop his non-shooting skills, but his jumper and body are ready for the NBA right now.
8. Fred VanVleet, Guard, Wichita State
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Projected draft ranking: Unranked
Key college career stats: 4.4 career apg, 1.6 career spg, 11.9 ppg this season
Arguably, Wichita State is the metaphorical poster boy for consistent mid-major success over the past couple of seasons, and that's been keyed by two guys with a fair-to-middlin shot at landing on an NBA roster.
That starts with Fred VanVleet, who is quietly helping quiet Wichita State to yet another quiet season of success.
Yeah, the Shockers sit at a not-so-awesome 8-5, but three of those losses came consecutively during VanVleet's early-season absence. That shows how integral he's been to the team's success. That and, well, the fact that they've only really been super successful during the time he's been leading the team.
VanVleet doesn't have crazy size or athleticism, but he is a good passer, a good ball-handler, a good shooter and a good defender. This is to say nothing of his clear intangibles.
His average-type size probably will keep his name out of draft day, but I'd be surprised if he didn't find his way into an NBA camp.
7. Ron Baker, Guard, Wichita State
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Projected draft slot: Unranked
Key college stats: 15.1 ppg, 3.4 apg, 39.4 percent three-point shooting
People tend to key on his shooting, but Ron Baker's more than that. He can get to the rim, and he's not afraid to bang.
After this summer's Pan Am Games, in which Baker played a prominent role for Team USA, ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla told Paul Suellentrop of the Wichita Eagle:
"The guy is Rambo. He plays fearlessly. He went toe-to-toe with some physical, grown men who know how to play the game and he really helped Team USA. He, arguably, was the best collegian. Most of them got better as the week went on, but he showed the most growth.
"
The growth continues. He won't be able to create his own shot at the next level the same way that he does at this one, but his all-around skill set and in-game acumen are going to translate just fine.
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6. Kyle Wiltjer, Forward, Gonzaga
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Projected draft slot: 60
Key college career stats: 20.8 ppg this season, 30.7 player efficiency rating, per Sports-Reference.com/CBB.
When you're 6'10" and make 40 percent of your threes, chances are good you're going to get some NBA attention.
There we are with Kyle Wiltjer, who's slated for the back end of this draft. He's not the most physical of guys. Unless Pepperdine moves up a level, he's probably not going to grab you 10 rebounds. But, again, he's 6 feet 10 inches tall, he makes shots and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes. There are plenty of materials to work with.
5. James Webb III, Forward, Boise State
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Projected draft slot: 50
Key college career stats: 16 ppg this season, 11.5 rebounds per 40 minutes over career, per Sports-Reference.com/CBB.
James Webb could be as much a weapon in the NBA as he is right now for the first-place Boise State Broncos.
Picture a rangier Ben Wallace—a player who, by the way, no one had heard of when he came out of Virginia Union. The 6'9" Webb lacks Big Ben's insane physique (don't we all) but has plenty of hops (see photo) and a natural ability to rebound the ball and get the dirty work done.
Will he ever be the focal point of an offense? Nope. But he doesn't need to be in order to be effective.
Boise State hasn't lost a game since November 29, and that's thanks in large part to Webb—its leading scorer and do-everything-elser.
4. Kahlil Felder, Guard, Oakland
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Projected draft slot: 43
Key college career stats: 26.1 ppg this season, 9.2 assists per game
The Horizon League never stood a chance.
Kahlil Felder is tearing up the conference in just about every way it's possible for a point guard to do so. According to Sports-Reference.com/CBB, he leads the conference in assists, steals, minutes played and free throws and is second in points per game.
The lead Golden Grizzly has garnered plenty of attention from pro scouts, thanks to not only his production but also his durable, athletic frame.
There's just one little problem: Felder's only 5'9". It's going to be just as hard—harder, actually—for NBA teams to get past that than it was for college teams. We'll see who, if anyone, rolls the dice based on Felder's crazy stats.
3. DeAndre Bembry, Guard, St. Joseph's
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Projected draft slot: 41
Key college career stats: 16.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.5 apg, 51 percent FG shooting this season
DeAndre Bembry's numbers aren't eye-popping, and yet his draft prospects are solid enough that he could conceivably declare without everybody laughing at him.
That's a testament to Bembry's versatile game. He's a combo-type player who can work in the paint, with the ball or off the dribble.
His 27 percent shooting from beyond the arc is a concern. He may need to bring that up (way up) if he wants to play as a guard in the big league. As is, his skill set may well be enough to get him in the door at small forward.
2. Domantas Sabonis, Center, Gonzaga
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Projected draft slot: 29
Key college career stats: 10.6 rpg this season, 91.4 career defensive rating, 66.2 effective field goal percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com/CBB.
Domantas Sabonis' advanced stats are pretty, you know, advanced. It's fitting for a guy whose game is predicated on the little things.
Sabonis is a physical brick house and, unlike some of his European contemporaries, doesn't get knocked around inside him. He's a terrific rebounder, and despite a limited offensive game, his field-goal percentage shows he at least knows what he can and can't do.
No reason to think he can't be an instant defensive asset to plenty of pro squads.
1. Stephen Zimmerman, Center, UNLV
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Projected draft slot: 15
Key college career stats: 13.3 rebounds, 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes, per Sports-Reference.com/CBB.
You can't teach 7 feet.
Stephen Zimmerman has it, Stephen Zimmerman is not entirely uncoordinated and so Stephen Zimmerman will probably be able to come out of college after this—his lone season at UNLV.
Obviously, that's a little reductive. Zimmerman shows tremendous athleticism and uses his muscular frame to good effect in the post.
The 9-5 Rebels aren't exactly lighting the world on fire, and, frankly, neither is Zimmerman. But it's clear that, in this case, college is just a showcase for the next level. Unless he shrinks, Zimmerman should hover on the outskirts of the lottery until Adam Silver hits the stage in June.
Projected draft positions and overall player rankings (as applicable) are courtesy of Draft Express. So if you have a problem with a certain projection, take it up with them. Statistics are from ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
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