2015-16 ACC NCAA Basketball Primer, Power Rankings Heading into Conference Play
College basketball's about to blow up, and the season's biggest powder keg lies somewhere in a traffic jam along Tobacco Road.
In this case, we don't want to reach it before it goes off. Let the whole mad thing explode.
Sure, there are Atlantic Coast Conference front-runners. You could walk away from this slideshow without reading another word and know those front-runners' names. But this season's picture is more crowded and complicated than usual, with a parity of talent that should make these next few months pretty doggoned exciting.
Who will emerge? Will the guard change, or will the usual suspects prevail? What are the stories within the story? Who are the most intriguing players to watch?
Read on for an answer to every imaginable question as ACC play gets set to begin.
ACC Power Rankings
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ACC conference play begins Wednesday. As we teeter on the precipice, here are the power rankings based on nonconference play to date.
- Virginia: 10-1
The Cavs are firing on all cylinders. KenPom.com has the team second in adjusted offense, 18th in adjusted defense and a relatively robust 89th in strength of schedule, making their 10-1 mark more impressive than those on the cupcake diet. - Miami: 10-1
Miami is the Dos Equis guy of this season's ACC. What makes them so interesting? An elite backcourt, a sneaky-good frontcourt and a proven crunch-time coach ready to make a statement. - Louisville: 11-2
The Cardinals took a tumble after Saturday's loss to Kentucky. Still, their defeats, to the Wildcats and top-ranked Michigan State, came by a combined six points. - North Carolina: 10-2
Injuries are a headwind for the Tar Heels, but their frontcourt depth and any sort of presence from point guard Marcus Paige could be enough to carry them. - Duke: 9-2
Amile Jefferson's out, and that hurts. Good thing for the Blue Devils that they can still shoot the eye out of a bird flying, as evidenced by their national No. 3 position in KenPom's adjusted offense rankings and 86.2 points per game average, which is eighth in the entire nation per NCAA.com. - Florida State: 9-2
The Seminoles are playing a full-court game that goes against their grinder reputation. Good on an underrated coach in Leonard Hamilton for taking what his young, athletic guards are giving him. - Pittsburgh: 10-1
Here's guessing the Panthers aren't as good as their record indicates. KenPom.com puts their SOS at 269. That's not impressive, and neither are squeaker wins over Western Carolina and Morehead State. - Notre Dame: 8-3
Veteran guard Demetrius Jackson leads a deep and balanced team. The Fighting Irish have to hope their early-season woes are over; they'll find out either way when they welcome Virginia to begin ACC play. - Syracuse: 10-3
Just when the Orange seem ready to break out, they crash back to earth. Are their prolific shooting and matchup zone enough to put them over? - NC State: 9-3
Cat Barber understandably gets all the run; he's the ACC's leading scorer and a clear candidate for conference player of the year. It's not a one-man show, though, with four guys averaging double figures in scoring. - Wake Forest: 8-3
The Deacons are living on a razor's edge. Their average margin between winning and losing is a mere seven points, and it's a lot closer if you take out that 22-point loss to Vanderbilt. - Georgia Tech: 9-3
Drill into the Yellow Jackets' resume and you quickly start to lose confidence. A home loss to East Tennessee State? A 14-point loss to 6-3 in-state rival Georgia? They should be lucky they have the record they do. - Virginia Tech: 8-4
The dregs begin here. The Hokies just got their first road win of coach Buzz Williams' tenure when they downed Radford. It's Williams' second season there. - Clemson: 7-5
It's sad to see the Tigers down this far. All that football juice had to come from somewhere, I guess. Consecutive losses to South Carolina and Georgia don't set them up well to start conference play. - Boston College: 6-6
Not looking good in Beantown. Losses to UMass Lowell and UC Irvine count among the low points thus far. And the Eagles still have the ACC to look forward to.
Lessons Learned from Nonconference Play
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Seriously, this thing is wide open
There are a lot of good teams in the ACC this season. There just might not be any great ones.
Plenty of teams appear destined to dance, with nine currently penciled in for the big bracket by the big bracketologist himself, otherwise known as ESPN's Joe Lunardi.
Likewise, no single player appears ready to dominate. Last season, Duke's Jahlil Okafor was head and shoulders above the rest. Now the player of the year race is as open as the conference itself.
Guards are like gold
The new 30-second shot clock is speeding up the game. The elimination of the five-second rule and the wider arc underneath are really loosening things up.
Perhaps the most striking change this season, though, is the stepped-up enforcement of existing rules in the name of "freedom of movement." Excessive hand-checking on a ball-handler is a quick whistle. So is chucking a cutter and mauling in the post.
It's all pointing toward an increased emphasis on guard play, and ACC teams with good backcourts are taking advantage.
Miami, with the Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan tandem, is performing well. When Marcus Paige is on the floor, good things happen for UNC. Cat Barber is running wild for NC State. FSU's young squadron of Malik Beasley, Dwayne Bacon, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Terance Mann are on a good streak after stumbling out of the gate.
According to KenPom.com, fouls are up but so is scoring. Team assists per game are way up. Seventeen of the nation's top 20 scorers are guards. In the ACC, seven of the 10 most prolific scorers live in the backcourt.
You get the picture. The ACC has always liked its guards, and now that inclination has a turbo boost. It should be a fun conference season.
Top Storylines to Watch
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Who's the team to beat?
Over its history, Virginia has flirted with lead-dog status but never really attained it. So, to a lesser extent, have Florida State and Miami (more on them in a second). Louisville has of course enjoyed great success outside the ACC, but in its inaugural campaign on the inside, it couldn't overshadow Duke (or others, depending on how you want to evaluate it).
It's a sky-high bar, no question. The Cardinals look strong thus far, but will it last? Will one of the no-cigars finally get it lit? Can Pittsburgh or Notre Dame break off a dark-horse run?
As tough as the Heels and Blue Devils are, the field is packed like a student section for College GameDay. This might be the season it happens, but the harsh crucible of late winter is where the narrative will really unspool.
How much will injuries hurt?
The injury bug has attacked the ACC with architectural precision.
For Duke, Amile Jefferson's broken foot buckled an already tipsy frontcourt. Center Mangok Mathiang's suffering of the same injury weakens Louisville's powerful post into late February or beyond.
It's downright bleak in Chapel Hill. Lead Tar Heel Marcus Paige can't stay on the court. His surgically repaired ankle flared up five games after he returned from a broken hand, which kept him out of the first six games. And now Kennedy Meeks is gone at least two weeks with a bruised knee.
If it keeps going like this, the eventual winners might have to hand out some MVP hardware to their training staff.
Is Miami really this good?
Since their ACC entrance they've hovered just outside the light. They've had their moments, mainly in 2013, but never found consistent success. Is this the year Jim Larranaga and company establish themselves as a team capable of both inspiring and fulfilling high expectations, right alongside the blue bloods?
“Our goals are always high," Larranaga said in November on 560 WQAM sports radio's Hochman, Crowder and Krantz show. "Our expectations are always to compete with the best teams in the country and in the ACC and win championships. We’re all about excellence.”
The stats, advanced and otherwise, suggest the Hurricanes' 10-1 schedule is indeed sustainable. They're sixth nationally in adjusted offense and 33rd in adjusted defense, per KenPom.com. They have two senior leaders in Rodriguez and McClellan who are surely hellbent on avoiding another March letdown.
With five players scoring in double figures (OK, Tonye Jekiri only averages 9.4) and the team shooting better than 50 percent from the floor—plus a conference schedule that gives them just one game apiece with Duke, UNC and Louisville—this season could make a lot of hay for the program.
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Rivalry Games and Can't-Miss Matchups
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Listed in chronological order:
Florida State at Miami, January 9
The hardwood version of this historically pigskin-focused rivalry should be ferocious this season. Stellar backcourts on both sides could mean a blistering tempo. Are we about to see an excited basketball fanbase in Miami? That'd be great. Who deserves it more than the Hurricanes do?
Duke at Miami, January 25
The 'Canes beat the national champs by 16 last season, and in Cameron Indoor Stadium no less. Afterward, they stumbled down the stretch and wound up in the NIT. If they don't want to repeat that fate, repeating last season's biggest win would be a big step.
Virginia at Duke, February 13
This is shaping up as a clash of titans at maybe college basketball's most famous venue. An offensive duel between Grayson Allen and Malcolm Brogdon could be worth the price of admission on its own.
Duke at North Carolina, February 17
If you care anything about the ACC, this is your bread and butter, your meat and potatoes and your cherry on top, all rolled into a single flour tortilla for convenience. For the sake of efficiency, let's go ahead and mention the return game in Cameron on March 5 as well.
If I have to explain why Duke-UNC is a can't-miss rivalry game, you may currently be consuming the wrong content.
Louisville at Virginia, March 5
Remember what we discussed earlier about teams looking to get over the hump? Here you have an ACC mainstay hoping to finally break through as a true powerhouse and a national powerhouse looking to break through as an ACC mainstay.
The actual team lineups aren't bad, either. Each one ranks in the top 20 in just about every KenPom.com metric that matters. The brutal defenses involved—Louisville and UVA rank third and ninth in the nation, respectively, in points allowed with 57.4 and 59.2 a game, per NCAA.com—promise a sludgy pace. But in this case, it's the good kind of sludge. It's the Melvins of ACC basketball.
These two split their series last year; an average margin of victory of 3.5 points made the difference. So, yeah. You want to watch this. At the end of the season, the stakes should be high.
March 5 is shaping up as the day to circle on the calendar.
Freshmen to Watch
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Brandon Ingram, Duke
After just a few months in Durham, Ingram is drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant. And it's not just from the tin-foil hat crowd: ESPN Insider Chad Ford, no less.
That take may run a little hot for some tastes, but the rangy Ingram does have a borderline-unblockable jumper and great finishing ability at the rim. He's second on the Blue Devils in scoring (14.9 ppg) and third in rebounding (5.4 rpg).
Malik Beasley, Florida State
Ingram absorbs most of the ACC freshman hype at the national level, and Dwayne Bacon grabs a lot of it on his own team, but Malik Beasley is outshining them both on the court. The guard is sixth in the conference (and first on his team) in points per game with 17.3, which just edges Bacon among all ACC frosh. He's hitting 43 percent of his threes, which puts him in the ACC's top 20.
Bryant Crawford, Wake Forest
Several others (most notably Bacon) are deserving here, but allow me to hit you with a deep cut. Crawford's doing a little bit of everything for the Deacs, and his numbers are warming up. He could really, really stand to cut down on the turnovers (4.2 per contest), but he can dish assists (five per game) and is money from downtown (40.4 percent). He's a Guy To Watch in any Wake Forest game.
Top ACC Player of the Year Candidates
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Michael Gbinije, Syracuse
Gibinije keeps all the Orange segments together in upstate New York. He's first on the team and third in the conference with 18.9 points per game and embodies Syracuse's free-shooting philosophy with 46.4 percent of three-pointers made. (No team in the ACC comes close to the Orange's 107 threes converted or 299 attempted, per NCAA data.)
Scoring is only part of the Gbinije equation. The 6-foot-7 forward also chips in 4.7 assists, 2.8 steals (that's eighth in the country) and 3.9 boards per game.
"He's doing a lot for us, from assisting to rebounding," Syracuse head coach-designate Mike Hopkins said of Gbinije in an article published Sunday and written by Mike Waters of Syracuse.com. "He's going to play those minutes. He's going to play. He's not coming out of the game. He's too valuable. He's in great shape. He's playing as good as anybody in our league, maybe even in the country.''
Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame
As Jackson goes, so go the Irish. It's no wonder he leads the team in minutes (34.8 mpg) when he also leads it in scoring (16.9 per game, which is eighth in the conference), assists (5.0) and steals (1.1) on average. In his spare time, he contributes 3.9 rebounds per game.
Notre Dame had a sluggish 8-3 start. In losses to Alabama and Indiana, Jackson shot a combined 8-of-30, or 27 percent. That's almost half his season shooting average of 52.2 percent. If he can put the clunkers behind him, Jackson and his team have a good shot at some hardware.
Anthony "Cat" Barber, NC State
Cat Barber has been hard to guard (see "rules changes, recent"). He's not the world's most efficient player, but as the ACC's leading scorer (22.6 points per game) and third-best assist man (5.3 helpers each contest), the Cat is "clawing," if you will, at a memorable season in Raleigh.
Grayson Allen, Duke
As long as Jefferson's out, the load falls even more heavily on the sophomore's shoulders. Allen is scoring in bunches, with the ACC's second-best average of 20.1 points per game on a crisp 46.3 percent shooting from the field. His 86.1 percent average from the stripe doesn't hurt, either. He also leads the team in helpers with 3.1 per outing.
Honorable Mentions: Malcolm Brogdon, UVA; Malik Beasley, FSU; Brice Johnson, UNC; Damion Lee, Louisville
Predicting the 2015-16 ACC Awards
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Freshman of the Year: Malik Beasley, Florida State
You had to figure this award was Ingram's to lose. While Ingram clearly has the highest next-level upside, it might be hard to deny Beasley.
According to College Basketball Reference, Beasley sports a player efficiency rating of 26.8, an effective field-goal percentage of 59.1 and a win shares percentage of 2.0. Those numbers not only substantially outpace Ingram's but suggest Beasley's play won't taper off. Ingram may be more vulnerable to a plateau, especially if Jefferson's injury means he plays out of position for an extended stretch.
Coach of the Year: Tony Bennett, UVA
Malcolm Brogdon is a big name, but by and large, it's a team game in Charlottesville. KenPom.com has the group second in adjusted offense and 18th in adjusted defense. Only Oklahoma, Kansas and Michigan State have a better composite rating in those categories. The Cavaliers' slow play may not earn them many SportsCenter highlights, but they don't seem to mind so long as they win. On Bennett's watch, that's a trend at UVA.
Player of the Year: Michael Gbinije, Syracuse
Simply put, no other ACC player stacks up as favorably against peers or does more for his team than Gbinije. The Orange are lost without him.
ACC Favorite and Dark Horse
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The Favorite: Virginia
This could be the year Virginia really takes down Tobacco Road.
The the Cavaliers' early loss to George Washington was gross, but may have been a blessing in disguise. They've had the turbo jets on ever since. On the eve of conference play, all they've done is string together a 16-point win over West Virginia, an 11-point win over Villanova and a stirring overtime buzzer-beating victory over a difficult California team.
Bennett is the glue, but the glue's job is easier when you have pieces like Brogdon, Anthony Gill and London Perrantes. In this busy and even playing field, the Cavaliers are reaching out of the pack.
The Dark Horse: Miami
I'm a believer. Two senior guards with something to prove? That's a two-headed monster for anyone to deal with, particularly given this season's officiating changes.
The Hurricanes' frontcourt, led by seven-footer Tonye Jekiri, is a little underrated (if thin). With a proven winner and giant-killer on the sidelines in Larranaga, the Hurricanes epitomize the tough out.
Who Makes the Tournament
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Shoo-Ins: UNC, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Louisville
Lunardi's most recent Bracketology iteration projects no fewer than nine ACC teams in the tournament. That makes sense, given the talent density. These six shouldn't have any trouble getting in, even if they do take an in-conference beating.
Hopefuls: Syracuse, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
These teams have some work to do but should get it done. Syracuse and Notre Dame, in particular, appear to have the talent and experience to gain a foothold in the field of 68.
Long shots: NC State
With a 9-3 record and a KenPom.com strength of schedule of 268, the Wolfpack will need to do more than hold serve if they want to go dancing. But with a high-octane star in Barber and a rock-solid backcourt running mate in Caleb Martin, NC State is capable of toppling some giants.
Predicting the 2015-16 ACC Standings
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Any of the first five teams listed below can win this conference, be it regular season, tournament or both.
Virginia's balance and suffocating defense should win the day, but if you like parity, this is your season. Pretty much every televised game will have larger implications.
- Virginia
- Louisville
- Miami
- UNC
- Duke
- Syracuse
- Notre Dame
- Florida State
- Pittsburgh
- NC State
- Wake Forest
- Georgia Tech
- Clemson
- Virginia Tech
- Boston College
All stats accurate as of Dec. 28 and courtesy of the databases of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
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