Citrus Bowl 2016: Final Odds and Prediction for Michigan vs. Florida

The 2016 Citrus Bowl is a battle between two teams looking to end strong seasons on a high note as the Michigan Wolverines take on the Florida Gators in a Big Ten-SEC clash. 

Both teams are coming off ugly losses at the end of the season. Michigan was blown out 42-13 by Ohio State at the Big House. Florida mustered just 180 yards of offense against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. 

Favorite	Over/Under
Michigan (-4)	39

Game Preview

Tony Ding/Associated Press

Florida's season has been a tale of two halves, with the line of delineation coming when starting quarterback Will Grier was suspended for one year for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance days before a showdown against LSU. 

Before Grier's suspension, the Gators were 6-0 and averaged 32.2 points per game. In the seven games with Treon Harris under center, they are 4-3 with a scoring average of 17.9. 

The schedule Harris played—with opponents such as LSU, Georgia, Florida State and Alabama—was much more difficult, so it's possible Florida would have wound up with the same 10-3 record it finished the season with had Grier played. 

But seeing the Gators offense look so inept down the stretch, especially in the last two games against the Seminoles and the Crimson Tide, makes it hard to be optimistic against a Michigan defense that fared well overall with 17.2 points allowed per game. 

Due to Florida's inability to move the ball consistently, head coach Jim McElwain's defense has been unable to play up to its usual standards. 

Opposing defenses have found out that the magic formula for beating Florida is making Harris stand in the pocket and throw. The sophomore completed just 51.9 percent of his passes this season, so Tom Dienhart of BTN.com has pinpointed a plan of attack for Michigan's defense:

"

The Wolverines no doubt will put a spy on Harris to limit his effectiveness as a runner. Still, Harris’ speed could pose issues. The goal: Make Harris pass the ball for the Gators to win. Wolverine linebackers Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan need to help the line make plays up field and to contain Harris. How ineffective has the UF offense been? In the last two games, the Gators scored one touchdown.

"

Florida will likely be feeding star running back Kelvin Taylor the ball a lot until Michigan's defense proves it can stop him. 

On the other side, Michigan's offense hasn't exactly been a beacon of light this season. The Wolverines were tied for 103rd in turnover margin (minus-six), and the rushing attack finished 92nd with 152.7 yards per game. 

As Pete Fiutak of Campus Insiders noted in his Citrus Bowl preview, Florida has been battle-tested against some of the nation's best running backs already:

"

Alabama was able to run for 233 yards, but it had to earn it with Derrick Henry finally able to take over as the game went on. LSU was able to rumble with Leonard Fournette able to take off for 180 yards. Michigan doesn’t have a Derrick Henry or a Leonard Fournette, and even with Jake Rudock back after getting banged up against Ohio State, the passing attack is going to struggle. This is going to be a down and dirty defensive battle, and as good as Michigan’s defense is, it doesn’t have the athletes up front that Florida has. 

"

Assuming Florida's run defense shows up, that puts pressure on Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock against a secondary that allowed 174.8 yards per game and boasts All-American cornerback Vernon Hargreaves. 

Michigan had some strong offensive outputs late in the season, scoring 97 combined points in wins over Rutgers and Indiana, but neither of those teams comes close to matching the talent or athleticism Florida has on defense. 

Prediction

Tony Ding/Associated Press

This is a matchup of strength vs. weakness, with both defenses operating far beyond where the offenses have been. 

Michigan does come into the game with a better chance to break through simply because it's playing with a quarterback who has shown some aptitude throwing the ball.

Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh has a spotty track record at game-planning, but when he's on, there are few coaches in the sport who can hide their teams' weaknesses and play to their strengths better than Harbaugh can.  

Florida's best chance to win this game is letting the offensive line create openings for Taylor and letting Harris improvise plays, giving the defense an opportunity to at least catch its breath. 

The Wolverines are operating closer to full strength, so they get the edge in this matchup that figures to be an offensive struggle most of the way. 

Michigan 17, Florida 13

Stats per NCAA.com