Gunnerism II: Arsenal's Realistic Worst Case Scenario

In the previous issue, I only mentioned that Arsenal could go the season unbeaten.

Critics seem to have bought into it.

Interestingly, people have started to draw comparisons to the Invincibles. Nine wins in as many games, we have now equaled their record.

So far so good, but even for a biased Gooner like me, it is difficult to tell.

Wenger has cautioned Arsenal to keep their feet on the ground, and with good reason.

The Red Devils are hot on our heels (okay, maybe hot is not the right word, but definitely on our heels). They somehow seem to churn out those 1-0 victories that go unnoticed.

Still, 2 points ahead of the pack with a game in hand, I don’t blame the media for making it seem that the Gunners have a comfortable cushion.

Granted, it is a fantastic start, but the keyword here is ‘start’.

The season is long – it stretches all the way till the end of May. Our fixtures so far have been extremely forgiving. Last season, we fared well against the big teams, but slipped against the smaller ones.

So far, we have been consistently one-upping the smaller teams, but have not faced the bigger clubs yet. This season poses particularly tasty match-ups against Man United and Liverpool.

The beginning of 2008 will also coincide with the African Cup of Nations. Neither Liverpool nor the Red Devils will lose anyone of significance. Chelsea will lose Essien and Drogba, but they will be out of contention by the time January rolls around.

We, on the other hand, will take quite a severe hit:

Toure – Rock solid. He is the heart of Arsenal’s defense. His presence will be most sorely missed.  This also reveals Arsenal’s Achilles Heel. Hopefully Wenger buys an able deputy when the January transfer window reopens. Gilberto could possibly fill this spot every once in a while, but we need him in his holding midfield role. A good center back would be a welcome addition to this amazing squad. I wonder how Rafa Marquez, Alex, or Lucio would fit in with the current squad.

Adebayor – Raw talent. Undoubted, but raw. Hopefully some international exposure will add another dimension to his style of play and thought. He has shown signs of brilliance in the absence of Henry and is there to pick it up when Van Persie isn’t up to the task (or is it the other way round).

Eboue – Hit or miss. He has an attacking flair, and provides decent crosses, but not very consistent. I believe Wenger sees him in a midfield position in the future, I see him being sold in the future.

It is quite realistic to assume that Arsenal will be heavily involved in multiple competitions, and our resources will be stretched thin. Such is the necessary evil of being a great club. Dare I say that Fabregas will need to be rested at some point. I just hope it is not against one of the bigger or tougher sides, although we seem to have enough quality to scrape away with at least a point.

Add to that the possibility of injuries – remember Henry and RVP last season – and the cushion does not seem all that comfortable (yes, yes, I agree that this could happen to any of the teams I mentioned here, but I am examining Arsenal’s worst case scenario, remember)

The key will be to keep the momentum going, and not get carried away. These are but some of the subtle indirect factors that will play a crucial role towards the end of the season (if the title race is close). There is an underrated urgency right at this very moment to secure those points and to prevent any unnecessary uncertainty amongst our players, and most importantly our fans.

My prediction: At the very worst, we should still finish top of the league, but without any other trophies. Like I said earlier, it is still a bit early to tell, but the matches in January and our ‘comfortable cushion’ at that time will determine whether the hype is real.