Stock Watch for Top Freshmen in College Basketball Heading into 2016
With almost a half-season in the books, it's time to take stock of how some of college basketball's top freshmen are faring. Call it a midterm evaluation, as nonconference play ends and the schedules move over to league action.
Before the 2015-16 season began, the hype these newcomers entered school with made it as if each and every one was the next great superstar. They couldn't all be instant phenoms, though, as the performance of some to this point has shown.
Ultimately, the top freshmen in the country will base their futures on what professional scouts have to say, but for now, we're more concerned with their contributions at the collegiate level.
Jaylen Brown, California
1 of 10
Stats: 14.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 44.1% FG, 25.6% 3PT
California had a recruiting coup this offseason in landing a pair of 5-star prospects, per 247Sports, the other being 6'11" forward Ivan Rabb. Rabb was the local kid who spurned offers from other big schools to stay close to home, whereas Jaylen Brown chose the Golden Bears despite hailing from Georgia.
Had Brown opted for one of his other finalists—which included Kentucky, Michigan and North Carolina—his numbers might garner more praise. But his choice to go off the beaten path, joining a program that doesn't have much recent success to boast of, led to expectations of helping raise Cal to a new level alongside Rabb and a veteran backcourt.
Instead, Brown's just been...OK.
The 6'7" forward had one of his best games on Monday, scoring 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting in an 86-60 win over Davidson, but he also had six turnovers in 20 minutes. For the year, he's giving the ball away three times per game.
Stock direction: Holding steady
Henry Ellenson, Marquette
2 of 10
Stats: 16.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, 45.1% FG
With seven double-doubles in 12 career games, Henry Ellenson is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the best big men in school history.
The 6'10", 245-pound power forward is leading Marquette in scoring and rebounding, and he's a big reason the Golden Eagles have gotten off to a 10-2 start with a nine-game win streak. That includes victories over LSU and Arizona State at the Legends Classic in Brooklyn and a win at rival Wisconsin during which Ellenson went for 15 points and 11 rebounds.
Though 247Sports ranked him ninth in the 2015 recruiting class, Ellenson hasn't received as much attention as other 5-star freshmen to this point. CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie noted this is because Marquette remains a borderline NCAA team pending how it does in the Big East, but Ellenson is “a name that you should become acquainted with.”
Stock direction: Rising
Brandon Ingram, Duke
3 of 10
Stats: 15.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 49.3% FG, 37.3% 3PT
No freshman has shown more in-season improvement than Brandon Ingram, who in his first few games showed far too many instances of being disinterested, and it cost him a starting job. But since Mike Krzyzewski moved him back into the lineup, the 6'9", 190-pound forward has been nearly unstoppable.
Monday's 26-point, 11-rebound performance against Elon was his fourth 20-point game in the last five, a span during which he's shot 58.7 percent from the field.
Ingram still has room to grow, particularly on defense, but Duke is forcing him to play at power forward since Amile Jefferson suffered a foot injury. He's responded with his first two double-doubles, and in his last three games, he's turned the ball over once.
Stock direction: Rising
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Chase Jeter, Duke
4 of 10
Stats: 2.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 50.0% FG
To understand how difficult it has been for Chase Jeter to adapt to the college game, take his performance in Monday's blowout win for Duke against Elon. The Blue Devils won by 39 points, the same margin they held at halftime, yet the 6'10" forward only logged 15 minutes on a team that is essentially down to seven players.
Jeter is last on that list, now averaging 9.5 minutes per game. He's averaged 12.7 minutes in the three games since Duke lost Jefferson to a foot injury, but only six of those minutes came in the overtime loss to Utah in which center Marshall Plumlee fouled out.
"He isn’t yet capable of playing and thinking with the speed and physicality high-major basketball requires," Laura Keeley of the News & Observer wrote after the Utah loss.
Stock direction: Falling
Skal Labissiere, Kentucky
5 of 10
Stats: 9.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 51.9% FG
If Skal Labissiere had been a part of Kentucky's unique platoon situation a season ago, the numbers he's put up so far as a freshman wouldn't be too bad. But the 6'11", 225-pound power forward isn't having to share minutes with a slew of other big men, and thus his production (or lack thereof) has been quite disappointing.
He started Kentucky's first 11 games but was replaced in the lineup for Saturday's tilt against rival Louisville, logging a season-low 10 minutes while scoring two points with three rebounds. It was the fifth time in the Wildcats' last six games he's failed to reach double digits, a span that included a woeful 13-minute effort against Arizona State when he went scoreless and fouled out.
Labissiere's name has been a mainstay on NBA draft big boards since before the 2015-16 season began, though he's falling fast. NBADraft.net has dropped him to ninth overall, which shows how much pro teams will draft based on potential rather than performance.
Stock direction: Falling
Jamal Murray, Kentucky
6 of 10
Stats: 16.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 40.2% FG, 39.0% 3PT
Back when he was lighting up Team USA as part of the Canadian national team over the summer, Jamal Murray began his journey toward being John Calipari's next great guard. He's made steady progress on that path, albeit with the pitfalls that normally trip up young players.
Murray is Kentucky's leading scorer and its best three-point shooter, but he's run hot and cold. He had 27 of his career-high 33 points in the second half in the Wildcats' loss to Ohio State, but he needed 23 shots to get there. He followed that up with a 3-of-14 performance against Louisville, missing all six of his two-point attempts.
Turnovers have also been an issue for the 6'5" Murray, who has given the ball away 40 times (compared to dishing out 34 assists).
Stock direction: Holding steady
Ben Simmons, LSU
7 of 10
Stats: 19.1 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.3 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 56.1% FG
Eleven games has been more than enough to see that Ben Simmons is every bit as good as advertised and why a long list of NBA teams are willing to roll over for the rest of this season in hopes of adding him to their rosters for 2016-17. He might not be the guaranteed No. 1 overall pick in June, but he'll be one of the first names off the board.
The only drama left for Simmons in what undoubtedly will be his lone collegiate season is whether he'll get to show off his many talents in the NCAA tournament. LSU's poor performance in non-league play has hurt his chances, though the additions of guard Keith Hornsby and forward Craig Victor make the Tigers a much better team than during the first month of the season.
Simmons, a 6'10" forward, is LSU's leader in every statistic listed above other than field-goal percentage, but that's only because Victor, an Arizona transfer, has shot 61.5 percent since becoming eligible three games ago.
Stock direction: Rising
Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
8 of 10
Stats: 11.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 46.4% FG, 34.3% 3PT
Purdue has the top field-goal defense in the country, holding opponents to 33.9 percent shooting. This has come from a trio of big men that features a pair of 7-footers who are blocking out the sun, as well as Caleb Swanigan there to clean up the glass.
Swanigan, who is only 6'9" but packs 260 pounds onto that frame, leads the Big Ten in rebounding thanks to 96 defensive boards. That's helped translate into a defensive rating of 81.4, which is ninth-best in the country and second only to Fordham guard Joseph Chartouny among freshmen.
The offensive side of the game is still a work-in-progress for Swanigan, though. For someone who spends so much time close to the basket, his shooting percentage leaves something to be desired. Even taking out his forays out to the perimeter, Swanigan makes only 51.9 percent of his two-point attempts.
Stock direction: Holding steady
Allonzo Trier, Arizona
9 of 10
Stats: 13.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, 51.9% FG, 34.1% 3PT
He's not as flashy or physical as Arizona's other recent notable freshmen—first-round NBA picks Aaron Gordon and Stanley Johnson—but what Allonzo Trier might lack in flair he more than makes up for with efficiency.
The 6'4" guard is second on the team in scoring, while his field-goal percentage trails five other players in the Wildcats rotation. But when you look at how he gets his points, including his propensity for getting to the line, Trier's numbers become more pronounced.
In terms of true shooting percentage, which measures efficiency based on two- and three-point field goals as well as free-throw attempts, Trier's 64.6 percent rate is best on the team and seventh in the Pac-12.
Trier's 178 points have come on only 104 field-goal attempts, and in his three 20-point games this season, he's averaged 8.3 shots.
Stock direction: Rising
Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV
10 of 10
Stats: 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 49.4% FG
Stephen Zimmerman has shown great promise when UNLV has given him the chance to shine this season, which isn't as much as it might be with other teams that don't emphasize as much one-on-one play on the perimeter.
The 7'0" center averages fewer than eight field-goal attempts per game, many of which have come either on putbacks or in transition. When opponents force UNLV into the half court, its guards and wings end up taking the bulk of the shots.
Zimmerman missed the Rebels' last nonconference game with a thigh bruise, which also knocked him out of the previous contest at Arizona. Before getting hurt against the Wildcats, he'd made all three of his shots in nine minutes while also grabbing three rebounds and blocking a shot.
Stock direction: Holding steady
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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