Predicting the Best Individual Matchups in College Basketball Conference Play

With conference play about to start, the focus turns to rivalries and individual matchups. Star players who play the same position in the same conference may have been battling each other for several years. They know each other's strengths and weaknesses, perhaps creating grudging respect but certainly eliciting intensity and the best either can provide.

The best individual matchups materialize when the stars of two contending teams go head-to-head, with the winner of that individual duel often being the deciding factor in a team's victory. We cherish those matchups that provide a sense of anticipation.

We count down the dozen most intriguing individual matchups, knowing that each may play a pivotal role in determining a conference champion.

12. Scoochie Smith, Dayton vs. Jack Gibbs, Davidson

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

When they meet: Jan. 12

Why you should watch:  Dayton was named the favorite to win the Atlantic 10 in its preseason poll, but to accomplish it, the Flyers and point guard Scoochie Smith must find a way to control high-scoring point guard Jack Gibbs of defending champion Davidson.  

Gibbs is averaging 24.8 points, which ranks fifth in the country, and 4.5 assists. He scored 35 points or more three times this season and is shooting 51.9 percent from the floor. Gibbs was hurt and did not play against Dayton in the teams' lone matchup last season—a game Davidson won by 17 points anyway, partly because Smith scored just two points.

Smith has improved his numbers in all offensive categories this season, averaging 11.2 points and 4.2 assists, but he still has games in which he disappears. He had just three points in a home game against Miami-Ohio on Tuesday, and it nearly cost the Flyers, who avoided the upset with a one-point victory. He needs to be at the top of his game both offensively and defensively against Davidson and Gibbs.

Who will win: Gibbs is likely to outduel Smith statistically, but Smith should do enough defensively to prevent Gibbs from winning the game by himself. With the game being played in Dayton, the Flyers should prevail with their balanced attack and strong defense.

11. Nic Moore, SMU vs. Troy Caupain, Cincinnati

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When they meet: Jan. 7 and March 6

Why you should watch: This may not be a true head-to-head matchup if Cincinnati chooses to play its matchup zone defense instead of a straight man-to-man. But SMU's Nic Moore, last year's conference player of the year, and Cincinnati's Troy Caupain, a preseason second-team all-conference selection this year, are probably the American Athletic Conference's two best point guards, and No. 22 Cincinnati and No. 18 SMU might be the conference's two best teams.

Perhaps more significant is the problem that SMU in general and Moore in particular have had against the Bearcats. The Mustangs went 15-3 while capturing the regular-season conference title last season, but two of those losses came against Cincinnati. Moore averaged 14.5 points last season, but he scored 11 points on 3-of-11 shooting with six turnovers in the first game against Cincinnati and had eight points on 1-of-8 shooting in the second.

Caupain did not have spectacular numbers against the Mustangs, but he did hit all three of his three-point shots while scoring 14 points in the second matchup and was clearly the better point guard in the two games. He had 18 points, five rebounds, four assists and one turnover in the two-point loss to Iowa State on Tuesday, showing that he is on top of his game as conference play approaches.

Who will win: Caupain's steady play and the Bearcats defense seem to befuddle SMU and Moore. Maybe Larry Brown, who is back from his nine-game suspension, will figure out a way to crack Cincinnati's defense this time. Maybe not. Look for Cincinnati to continue to give Moore problems and win at least one of the two games against SMU.

10. Isaiah Taylor, Texas vs. Monte Morris, Iowa State

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When they meet: Jan. 12 and Feb. 13

Why you should watch:  Texas point guard Isaiah Taylor was selected for the Big 12 preseason all-conference team, and Iowa State point guard Monte Morris was not. However, you could make a pretty good argument that Morris is the Big 12's best point guard.

Morris' scoring average of 14.5 points is nearly identical to Taylor's 14.7 points, and his 7.6 assists a game rank fifth in the nation. On College GameDay, ESPN analyst and former Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg called Morris the country's best point guard last season, as noted by Travis Hines of the Ames (Iowa) Tribune.

Both are playing for new coaches, so it remains to be seen what Taylor and Morris and their teams can accomplish under different leadership. Taylor and Longhorns' coach Shaka Smart established some credibility when Taylor scored 18 points in Texas' victory over North Carolina. Morris and Cyclones coach Steve Prohm received kudos when Morris scored 20 points and hit the game-winning shot in a one-point victory over Iowa, which held a 20-point lead in the first half. 

Morris' 16-point, four-rebound, seven-assist, four-steal game in a two-point road victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday did nothing to hurt his reputation either. The only game in which Morris failed to score in double figures this season is also the only game the Cyclones lost—Northern Iowa.

Iowa State won all three games against Texas last season. Taylor had the upper hand in the individual matchup, averaging 17.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in those games compared with Morris' 15.7 points and 4.7 assists. But Morris had the final word in the team's most recent meeting, in the 2015 Big 12 tournament. Morris hit an 18-foot jumper at the buzzer that completed a 12-0 Iowa State run and gave the Cyclones a two-point victory. 

Who will win:  Although Iowa State is ranked No. 11 and Texas is unranked, Smart's presence on the Longhorns' sidelines is likely to translate into success for Texas and the Longhorns guards eventually. Bottom line, Taylor will outduel Morris on Texas' home court, and Morris will do likewise to Taylor in Ames, Iowa, with each leading his team to victory at home.

9. Gary Payton II, Oregon State vs. Tyrone Wallace, California

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When they meet: Jan. 9 and Feb. 13

Why you should watch: There was a thought of spotlighting the matchup between California's Tyrone Wallace and UCLA's Bryce Alford, but the pairing of Wallace with Oregon State's Gary Payton II is just too appealing to ignore.

Both Payton and Wallace are left-handed senior point guards who are capable of a triple-double on a given night. Neither is a particularly good shooter, but both cause havoc in the lane by penetrating off the dribble to score, pass to a teammate or grab an offensive rebound. Both lead their teams in scoring, assists and minutes played and get more rebounds than their position typically gets.

Their statistics are similar, with Payton averaging 16.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.5 steals and Wallace getting 16.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals.

Wallace remains the Bears' leader despite the presence of two elite freshmen, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb. Payton demonstrated his many talents in a 13-point, 11-rebound, seven-assist game against Kansas—a contest the Beavers led by 14 points and one in which the 6'3" Payton produced a memorable dunk over Kansas' 6'9" Cheick Diallo.

In their only matchup last season, Wallace had 12 points on 4-of-12 shooting, while Payton had 12 points on 5-of-13 shooting. The individual duel was a draw, but the victory went to Wallace as Cal won 73-56.

Who will win: Cal, which was picked to finish second in the preseason Pac-12 poll, has not been as good as expected through its nonconference schedule, while the Beavers, who return all five starters and were picked to finish sixth, have been a little better than anticipated.

Payton is likely to have the statistical edge both times the teams meet, with the Beavers probably coming out on top in Corvallis on Jan. 9 and the Bears winning in Berkeley on Feb. 13. By the second meeting Cal's freshmen should have things figured out.

The Bears played their best game of the season in a one-point overtime road loss to No. 5 Virginia on Tuesday, suggesting the Bears have the talent to do some damage in the Pac-12.

8. Damion Lee, Louisville vs. Brandon Ingram, Duke

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

When they meet: Feb. 8 and Feb. 20

Why you should watch: Small forwards Damion Lee of Louisville and Brandon Ingram of Duke have had major impacts on their teams in their first seasons with the Atlantic Coast Conference teams. How they fare against each other in their two matchups less two weeks apart will affect the ACC title race.

This presupposes that Duke power forward Amile Jefferson, who is out with a broken foot, will be back by the time they meet. Without Jefferson, Ingram likely will be playing out of position at the power forward spot, and the matchup with Lee would be ruined.

Ingram, rated as the nation's No. 3 recruit by ESPN.com, had a shaky start to his freshman season. He scored just four point in the loss to Kentucky, and that began a three-game stretch in which he averaged just 5.7 points and 2.3 rebounds. A concern was developing that the skinny, 6'9", 190-pound Ingram might not be strong enough to handle top-flight college competition.

He then found his stride, most evident in a 24-point performance in a 20-point win over Indiana. But since Jefferson's injury, the smooth, skilled Ingram has been forced to play the power forward spot, which puts him at a physical disadvantage. That contributed to the Blue Devils' loss to Utah on a neutral floor.

Ingram's early-season struggles and his undesirable move to a post position are part of the reason the Blue Devils slipped from their preseason No. 5 ranking to their current spot at No. 15.

Meanwhile, the play of Lee has helped Louisville climb from an unranked position in the preseason to its current No. 16 slot. The Cardinals' only loss was a four-point defeat to the current No. 1 team, Michigan State, on the Spartans' home court. Lee kept the Cardinals in that game with his 23 points and five steals, and he has scored in double figures in every game while averaging 17.9 points.

The Cardinals knew they were getting a pretty good scorer when Lee transferred from Drexel, where he averaged 21.4 points last season. Whether he can maintain his scoring pace against ACC competition is the question. Other than Michigan State, Louisville's schedule has been soft, with all its wins coming by lopsided margins.

Who will win: If we assume Jefferson will return in time to play against Louisville, which is uncertain at this point, Lee and Ingram figure to match up at the 3 spot. Technically, Ingram is a forward, and Lee is a guard, but both are wing players when put in position to best utilize their skills.

The 6'6" Lee is even 10 pounds heavier than Ingram, and if Lee can use his strength to bully Ingram, he will have the upper hand. It creates a classic battle that Lee is likely to win based on his experience as a senior. Ingram could find himself in foul trouble. If Ingram can play Lee to a draw, the Blue Devils have a good chance to win at least one—and possibly both games.

7. Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona vs. Jakob Poeltl, Utah

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

When they meet: Feb. 27

Why you should watch: Unfortunately these teams meet only once during the regular season, and that contest is not until the next-to-last regular-season game. But the matchup of seven-foot Pac-12 centers is one worth watching if last season's games are any indication.

Arizona senior Kaleb Tarczewski is in his fourth season as a starter, and he has helped the Wildcats win regular-season conference titles each of the last two seasons. He is a consistent, if unspectacular, performer who provides the size in the middle the Wildcats need. He has been sidelined with a foot injury, and another seven-foot player, Dusan Rustic, has performed well in his absence. Tarczewski should be back well before Utah and Arizona meet in Salt Lake City, but he knows now that Rustic can provide solid minutes if needed.

Jakob Poeltl is just starting to get recognition nationwide. He has been outstanding this season, averaging 18.0 points and 9.7 rebounds, and that includes a 19-point, 14-rebound, three-block game in the win over Duke.

Both DraftExpress and NBADraft.net project him to be a top-10 pick in the 2016 NBA draft. However, he has yet to prove he can be productive against Tarczewski. In their two matchups last season, Poeltl averaged a measly 5.0 points and 4.5 rebounds, while Tarczewski averaged 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds. Not surprisingly, Arizona won both games.

Who will win: Poeltl needs to win his individual matchup decisively for the Utes to have a chance. The game will be played on Utah's home court, which is a sizable advantage, and the Utes proved in their neutral-court victory over Duke they are capable of beating Arizona. We expect Poeltl to dramatically improve on his previous games against Tarczewski, which will translate into a Utes victory.

6. Ben Simmons, LSU vs. Skal Labissiere, Kentucky

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

When they meet: Jan 5 and March 5

Why we should watch: Even though there is only an outside possibility that LSU's 6'10" Ben Simmons and Kentucky's 6'11" Skal Labissiere will be matched up against each other, the comparison of the two big men will be unavoidable. They were the two most highly touted incoming freshmen this season, with Simmons rated the nation's No. 1 recruit and Labissiere rated No. 2 by ESPN.com and Labissiere No. 1 and Simmons No. 2, according to both Rivals.com and Scout.com.

But then the season began. While Simmons has taken off to possible national-player-of-the-year heights and strengthened predictions that he will be the top overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft, Labissiere has struggled. Labissiere's numbers (9.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists) are dwarfed by Simmons' amazing statistics (19.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists). Simmons' mediocre outside shooting is his only weakness.

Certainly Kentucky's superior overall talent contributes to Labissiere's statistical shortfall and is the reason the Wildcats are still ranked No. 12, while the Tigers have slipped out of the top 25. Labissiere is still ESPN.com's No. 4 NBA prospect, but you have to wonder about Labissiere's status after he scored a total of two points on 1-of-9 shooting in consecutive games against Arizona State and Ohio State in early December.

Who will win: Kentucky should win both games against an LSU team that has four losses, including one to College of Charleston. However, comparisons between Simmons and Labissiere are likely to favor the LSU player.

We can only hope the two are matched up against each other for at least part of the game. It's difficult to predict which player Kentucky coach John Calipari will assign to the do-it-all Simmons, who is essentially a point guard in a power forward's body.

Alex Poythress seems like the most likely candidate, but Labissiere is a possibility. At the other end, Simmons may be asked to guard Labissiere, which would give the Kentucky freshman a chance to shine or slip further into oblivion.

5. Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova vs. Kris Dunn, Providence

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When they meet: Jan. 23 and Feb. 6

Why you should watch: Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Dunn were the Co-Big East Players of the Year last season when both played the point guard position, and this season they both play for teams ranked in the top 25. That suggests a classic show is in store when the teams face off in two games just 14 days apart.

The only problem is that Arcidiacono and Dunn might not be matched up against each other this time around. Villanova has two point guards in its starting lineup, with Arcidiacono sharing that role with freshman Jalen Brunson this season. Most of the time Brunson initiates the Wildcats offense, so it's possible Dunn will be matched up against Brunson.

A Brunson-Dunn matchup would be worth watching as well, primarily because Dunn is so talented. He was named to the Associated Press first-team preseason All-America team, and both NBADraft.net and DraftExpress project Dunn to be taken among the first six picks of the 2016 NBA draft. Dunn, a 6'4" junior, does just about everything on both ends of the floor, averaging 16.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.3 assists (seventh in the country) and 3.2 steals (second in the country).

Meanwhile, Arcidiacono, a senior in his fourth season as a starter, has improved his numbers from last season. He is averaging 11.8 points, and despite Brunson's presence, he still leads the team in assists at 4.5 a game—more than an assist per game more than last season.

Who will win: This is a tossup, with both teams favored on their home floors. Dunn figures to have better numbers than Arcidiacono, but the Friars star may have trouble dominating the Wildcats three-headed point guard, which will include lead-guard contributions from Phil Booth as well as Brunson and Arcidiacono.

Dunn's performance is more important to his team's success. Last season, Villanova swept all three games against Providence, with Arcidiacono averaging 13.0 points and 3.3 assists and Dunn averaging 14.3 points and 8.0 assists in those three contests. More telling is that fact the Wildcats crushed Providence by 28 points when Dunn had four points and six turnovers, but eked out a two-point win over the Friars in the Big East tournament when Dunn had 22 points and nine assists.

4. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, vs. Wayne Selden, Kansas

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

When they meet: Jan. 4 and Feb. 13

Why you should watch: Oklahoma senior Buddy Hield is the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year and a preseason Associated Press First-Team All-American. Kansas junior Wayne Selden is one of the country's most improved players, leading the Jayhawks in scoring after being moved to a small forward spot this season. Kansas is ranked No. 2 at the moment and Oklahoma is No. 3, and we can only hope Hield and Selden will be matched up against each other as they were last season.

No player has been more impressive this season than the 6'4" Hield, a shooting guard who is averaging 23.7 points and hitting 51.8 percent of his three-point shots. He has scored 30 points or more three times this season, including consecutive games of 30 and 33 against Oral Roberts and Creighton the past two Saturdays, respectively.

Hield went head-to-head with Selden last season, with Hield dominating the matchup. He outscored Selden 26-5 in Kansas' victory in Lawrence, Kansas, and outscored Selden 18-0 in Oklahoma's victory in Norman, Oklahoma.

Hield even had the game-winning tip-in in the latter. Two things should be mentioned, though: Hield was a combined 13-of-39 from the field in the two games (33.3 percent), and Selden was limited to 18 minutes of court time in the second meeting because of a sprained ankle suffered in the Jayhawks' previous game.

Selden is a different player this season, averaging 15.5 points and hitting 55.4 percent of his three-point shots after averaging 9.4 points on 36.5 percent long-range shooting as a sophomore. Moving Selden from shooting guard to small forward this season to get Devonte' Graham into the starting backcourt alongside Frank Mason III has paid dividends for Selden and the Jayhawks.

Even though Selden is playing the small forward spot this season, he still might be matched up against Hield—one of three guards in the Sooners' starting lineup. 

Who will win: Hield is a good bet to outscore Selden again, though probably not by the wide margin he enjoyed last season. Hield is simply a better college player than Selden, whose goal will be to play Hield to a standstill. If he can prevent Hield from dominating the game, Kansas has a good chance to win either or both games. 

That is easier said than done, however. Two big games by Hield and two Sooners victories are more likely.

3. Ron Baker, Wichita State vs. D.J. Balentine, Evansville

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When they meet: Jan. 6 and Jan. 31

Why you should watch: Most people know about Wichita State shooting guard Ron Baker—a key member of the Shockers' surprising run to the Final Four in 2013 and their undefeated regular season in 2014. He is a two-time first-team all-conference selection, and ESPN.com ranked him the country's eighth-best player this season. Fewer people know about Evansville shooting guard D.J. Balentine, also a two-time first-team all-conference player who was the leading scorer in the Missouri Valley Conference last season.

With Wichita State favored to win the Missouri Valley Conference title and Evansville picked to finish second, according to an mvc-sports.com article, the two January matchups of those two senior shooting guards provide considerable intrigue.

Wichita State has looked vulnerable this season. Ranked No. 10 in preseason, the Shockers are just 6-5, with point guard Fred VanVleet's four-game absence playing a major role in the disappointing start. The 6'4" Baker has improved his scoring average to 15.9 points this season, but he had just seven points in the 23-point loss to Iowa and seven points in the victory over Utah.

Meanwhile, the 6'2" Balentine is leading the conference in scoring again, at 21.7 points a game. By the end of this season he probably will rank fourth in career scoring in the Missouri Valley Conference, ahead of Doug McDermott and behind only Larry Bird, Oscar Robertson and Hersey Hawkins. Balentine has scored in double figures in every game this season, and if he produces a big game in an Evansville victory over Wichita State, people will start to become acquainted with his achievements.

Who will win: Wichita State is 5-0 against Evansville in games in which both Baker and Balentine played, and none of them were close. Baker outscored Balentine in both matchups last season, including an 18-8 scoring superiority in their most recent meeting last Feb. 22.

Wichita State seems to have Evansville's number, and Baker seems to have Balentine's number. Balentine must break the trend for the Purple Aces to have a shot, but don't count on it.

2. Melo Trimble, Maryland vs. Yogi Ferrell, Indiana

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When they meet: March 5

Why you should watch: Unfortunately Maryland sophomore point guard Melo Trimble and Indiana senior point guard Yogi Farrell will meet only once this season, unless they face off again in the Big Ten tournament. Fortunately, that one scheduled matchup is the regular season's final game and could have all kinds of postseason implications.

The Hoosiers may need to win that game in Bloomington, Indiana, to get into the NCAA tournament. The Terps may need to win that road game to win the conference title or secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. How this individual matchup plays out will go a long way toward determining the game's winner.

Last season, Farrell was named to the first-team all-conference squad with Trimble relegated to the second team. However, Trimble was named the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year this season, with both selected for the preseason Big Ten all-conference team.

There is little to choose between them statistically, with Ferrell averaging 16.1 points, 5.7 assists and 40 percent three-point shooting, while Trimble is averaging 15.0 points, 5.7 assists and 39 percent shooting from long range.

Who will win: Maryland is currently ranked No. 4, while the Hoosiers are unranked, suggesting the Terps are a significantly better team. But since the game will be played on the Hoosiers' home court, where Indiana is undefeated so far this season, the Terps have only a razor-thin edge. Predicting the winner of the individual matchup is even more difficult.

Maryland won two of the three games against Indiana last season, with Trimble having solid performances, averaging 13.3 points on 6-of-11 three-point shooting (54.5 percent) while committing just five turnovers in the three games combined.

However, Ferrell was even better, averaging 21.7 points while hitting 15 of 24 three-point shots (62.5 percent) and committing just one turnover in the three contests. Ferrell's spectacular performance in the first meeting in Bloomington, when he scored 24 points, hit seven of eight shots from long distance and added five assists with no turnovers, was the main reason the Hoosiers won that game by 19 points.

Ferrell needs a similar dominating performance for Indiana to win its March encounter with the Terps. We are guessing he won't do quite enough.

1. Marcus Paige, North Carolina vs. Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia

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When they meet: Feb. 27

Why you should watch: Roy Williams' decision to move Marcus Paige to a shooting guard spot, thus allowing Joel Berry to run the point much of the time, has created a delicious individual matchup when North Carolina and Virginia meet in Charlottesville, Virginia.  

Paige and Malcolm Brogdon, the Atlantic Coast Conference Preseason Co-Players of the Year, should be going head-to-head when these teams, picked to finish first and second in the ACC, square off in their only regular-season meeting. If things play out as expected, North Carolina and Virginia should meet again in the ACC tournament and conceivably could meet a third time in the NCAA tournament.

Paige has played just six games since returning from a broken right hand suffered in preseason practice, but he seems to have recaptured the confidence and shooting touch that deserted him during his injury-plagued junior season. He scored 20 points against both Maryland and Texas and has hit 48.5 percent of his three-point shots as a senior.

The 6'1" Paige will have his hands full trying to score against the 6'5" Brogdon, who was the ACC Co-Defensive Player of the Year last season. But Brogdon is more than just a defensive stalwart this season, leading the Cavaliers in scoring at 16.8 points a game while raising his three-point shooting to 41.8 percent.

Who will win: Brogdon's increased scoring along with his established skills as a defender and rebounder give him the advantage in the individual matchup against Paige. That and playing the game on the Cavaliers' home court provide Virginia with the edge from a team standpoint as well.

Last season, the two teams split their two meetings, with Virginia winning in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and the Tar Hills winning in the ACC tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina. Brogdon was productive both times, scoring 17 points in the Cavaliers' win and 25 in the loss, while Paige scored 15 and 14 points, respectively.

Paige has the ability to get hot and take over a game, both from the perimeter and as a penetrator, but getting on such a run is unlikely against a defender as strong as Brogdon.

Statistics used are valid through games of Dec. 22.