Cotton Bowl 2015: Factors That Will Decide Michigan State vs. Alabama Playoff

For the first time since 1966, the Cotton Bowl will be played in December instead of January. And for the first time in the bowl game's history, dating back to 1937, the winner of this game between No. 3 Michigan State and No. 2 Alabama will be going to the national championship game. 

Both teams had to scramble in order to get to the college football playoff. Alabama had to overcome a loss to Ole Miss in order to make it to the SEC Championship Game, where it defeated Florida. Michigan State had an even worse loss to Nebraska before defeating Ohio State to help cement their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Sitting at No. 5, they beat an undefeated No. 4 Iowa team for the conference title and a spot in the Top Four. 

Here's everything you need to know about the Cotton Bowl and the key factors that will decide the winner of this game:

Date	Time (ET)	Venue	TV
Thursday, Dec. 31	8 p.m.	AT&T Stadium	ESPN

Cotton Bowl X-Factors

The Michigan State Run Defense

The Spartans defense is going to be facing their stiffest test yet this season in the form of Alabama running back and Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. 

Henry set an SEC record this season with 1,986 rushing yards and is one of a few backs the game has seen with this combination of size and speed. The junior rusher is a bruising back who can not only run you over, he can simply outrun you. 

He's been unstoppable as of late, too. In his last seven games, he's had five games of 180 yards or more. Four of them went for more than 200 yards. 

Michigan State does carry a solid run defense. They rank seventh in the nation, allowing 113.1 yards per game on the ground. But for other teams, their good run defense hasn't done much against Henry:

Opponent	National Rank	Attempts	Yards	TD
Wisconsin	4th	13	147	3
Ole Miss	26th	23	127	1
Arkansas	16th	27	95	1
LSU	24th	38	210	3
Florida	17th	44	189	1

Against Arkansas, one of his lowest outputs of the season in which he put up 95 yards, the Razorbacks did well to clog up the middle and make it difficult for him to go get a running start into an opening along the offensive line. 

Throwing different levels of defensive players in the middle to add support to the defensive line did help slow Henry down. However, Alabama still won the game. 

Michigan State will have to do the same thing in clogging up the middle. Whether it's loading the box with linebackers to give support to the defensive line or putting five men on the line, Henry needs to be priority No. 1. And for their best player, All-American defensive end Shilique Calhoun, it's a challenge worth relishing, as iSportsWeb's Tony Garcia shows:

Henry still is capable of bouncing to the outside despite his size, and this is where Calhoun comes into play.

As their best defender, the Spartans defense needs to send Henry toward Calhoun. The 10.5-sack man will have to help set the edge for the Spartans on the left side, penetrate and get a hit on Henry to slow him down. 

Putting their best defensive player on Alabama's best offensive player is all Michigan State can ask for when going up against a Heisman Trophy winner. If they're able to hold him under 150 yards, the Spartans could be in serious business for the Cotton Bowl. 

Jake Coker

Michigan State knows that Henry is going to get a lot of the football. I know that Henry is going to get a lot of the football. You know that Henry is going to get a lot of the football. Everyone knows. 

Everyone. 

So the only thing to do for Alabama when the opposition is planning for a month on stopping a running back is get the quarterback's arm ready. And that comes in the form of senior quarterback Jake Coker. 

He's no Connor Cook, who will be leading Michigan State's offense on New Year's Eve.

In an offense dominated by Henry, Coker has only recorded one game this season in which he's thrown for more than 250 yards. It isn't much of his fault. Only once has he thrown more than 33 passes in a single game, and that was when they were playing from behind against Ole Miss. 

Yet Coker has been solid as of late. Since Week 7, he's led the FBS in completion percentage at 71.7 percent. In his past four games, he's thrown six touchdowns and just one interception. 

And even while his numbers don't jump off the page, he has the respect of his team, as Alabama center Ryan Kelly told Zac Ellis of CampusRush.com:

"

There's no testing his willingness to win or his character or anything like that. He's shown that week-in and week-out ever since he became the starter. The more he starts, the more confidence he's shown in the locker room. I think guys have picked up on that.

"

He has a solid target in wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who has accounted for 32 percent of Alabama's receiving yards this season with 893, and Coker will have to rely on him if Alabama wants to get things done through the air. 

Coker is plenty capable of making a big play, too, like this one in the Iron Bowl against Auburn:

Most importantly, Coker is going to have to manage the game perfectly. With an Alabama defense that will surely hold Michigan State's offense for most of the day, Coker needs to be able to piece together some drives that can eat up the clock and keep his defense rested. 

If that means extending possession with some clutch passes, then the senior quarterback will have an opportunity to prove a lot of doubters wrong and come up big on one of the game's largest stages. 

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com