NCAA Tournament Teams from Last Year That Are Already 'On the Bubble' for 2016
Because it's never too early.
At first blush, perhaps it seems strange that we might start talking bubbles before the egg nog even has a chance to spoil, but here we are.
Nothing is certain this time of year, but that doesn't mean we're devoid of insight. Among said insights is an understanding of the teams that are not looking as strong at the quarter pole as they did at roughly the same time last year.
These are the teams that most fit that category. Here in December, we can look at the ESPN Bracketology projections—yes, Virginia, Joe Lunardi does work in December—and determine which teams are running behind the pace they set last season. Are they out of it yet? No. But they need to get to work.
All of the following teams are tournament teams from last season that are either on Lunardi's actual bubble for this season—as of December 18—or projected for a substantially worse seed than they enjoyed in the 2015 Big Dance. They are ranked based on the gap between the two positions.
7. Texas Longhorns
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Last year's tourney seed: 11
Current bracketology position: On the bubble—First four out
Current record: 7-3
The Longhorns may not be long for this list.
An ugly beginning under new head coach Shaka Smart included a 2-3 start to the season. They needed overtime to beat the UT-Arlington Mavericks.
It's hard to believe that's the same team that has now ripped off five straight wins, most notably a toppling of the mighty North Carolina Tar Heels.
As it is, though, the Hoyas haven't pulled out of the early season's gravitational pull just yet. Conference play should help us get this one sorted out, for better or worse for Texas fans.
6. Davidson Wildcats
2 of 7
Last year's tourney seed: 10
Current bracketology position: On the bubble—Next four out
Current record: 7-1
That's not such a bad record, especially considering their one loss came to North Carolina. Davidson was actually in the same exact position this time last year, with the same defeat on its ledger and only one additional win to balance it out.
The difference is the A-10 conference, which isn't looking quite as good this season. There will still be opportunities to shine, however, with big games against the Dayton Flyers and George Washington Colonials on the conference docket.
The Wildcats will need every win they can get if they have a hope of snagging their second at-large bid in as many seasons. If they can't get that done, they're playing without a net.
5. Wisconsin Badgers
3 of 7
Last year's tourney seed: 1
Current bracketology position: 6
Current record: 7-5
The Badgers can't get anything going.
With the losses of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker from last season's national runner-up, that was to be expected. To some extent, anyway.
Junior forward Nigel Hayes hasn't quite met expectations as the hub of the team and they've had some bad losses, most recently at home to the Milwaukee Panthers.
There's plenty of time still, and they've gotten nice wins over the Syracuse Orange and others. Conference play will determine whether that No. 6 seed is legit or just a product of reputation. Either way, a return anywhere close to last season's lofty status is not in the cards.
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4. Georgetown Hoyas
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Last year's tourney seed: 4
Current bracketology position: 9
Current record: 6-4
Good luck deciphering this Georgetown Hoyas team.
On Tuesday, the Hoyas lost at home to everyone's favorite upstart Monmouth Hawks. It was their third home loss of the season. The others? The Duke Blue Devils and Radford Highlanders. That's right. Radford.
Those losses are enough to cancel out—and then some—wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Syracuse, not to mention any psychological edge they may have picked up by hanging very closely with both Duke and the Maryland Terrapins.
Sloppy shooting and defensive lapses are the main weaknesses. After the Monmouth loss, head coach John Thompson III told Gene Wang of the Washington Post:
"You’re going to have days when the ball’s not going in the basket. Then we’ve got to get stops. [Monmouth] is a very good offensive team, the best offensive team we’ve played this year. We have to get to where we can rely on our defense in getting stops. When we needed to do that today, we didn’t.
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3. VCU Rams
5 of 7
Last year's tourney seed: 7
Current bracketology position: On the bubble—Last four in
Current record: 5-4
The VCU Rams appear to miss head coach Shaka Smart. Will Wade took over for Smart after the latter left for Texas, and everyone's feeling the growing pains.
The Rams haven't suffered any terrible losses, but they do keep coming. Most recently, a home loss to the Florida State Seminoles followed by a road loss against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, which won't do them any favors in March.
Still, they've played a fairly tough schedule to date. It's that strength of schedule that is probably responsible for keeping them astride the bubble despite the ugly record.
2. Northern Iowa Panthers
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Last year's tourney seed: 5
Current bracketology position: On the bubble—Last four in
Current record: 6-3
They upset then-top-ranked North Carolina seven days after losing their season opener—at home, no less—to the Colorado State Rams. That kind of sums it up.
Barring something bizarre, the Panthers' postseason will, as it did last year, come down to what they do against conference foe Wichita State. The Shockers are way down this season, but they're still the team to beat in the Missouri Valley Conference.
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
7 of 7
Last year's tourney seed: 5
Current bracketology position: Completely out of the conversation
Current record: 5-4
Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls are not walking through that door. And boy, don't the Razorbacks know it.
Last season's stars, who propelled Arkansas to 27 wins and the tourney's second round, are nowhere to be found as the team struggles to build any momentum.
Losses to teams like the Akron Zips have Arkansas on the outside looking in at the moment. And when I say outside, I mean, like, the overflow parking lot. They can't even see the windows, much less the actual inside.
All is not lost. Sophomore guard Anton Beard is set to return from suspension, and he will join a team that just won two in a row for the first time this season.
As Matt Jenkins of blog Razorbackers puts it:
"This team is very young and inexperienced. The more the guys play together and get better with one another, you will start to see results. But it will take time, something that’s hard to accept. The chances of another 20+ win season, like we had last year, will be a miracle to reach this year.
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