College Football Championship 2016: Date and Predictions for Title Matchup
The second College Football Playoff champion will be crowned Jan. 11 in Glendale, Arizona, and at this point, all we know is it will be one of four teams.
Before we can get to the final game of the college football season, two enticing semifinal games must first be played.
In a matchup of high-scoring offenses, the No. 1 Clemson Tigers take on the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners in the Orange Bowl prior to an old-school, smashmouth brawl in the Cotton Bowl between the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 3 Michigan State Spartans.
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They should both be good matchups, but the Sooners and Crimson Tide will come out on top and play for a national championship.
Here's a look at some information on how to follow the game and a couple of reasons why the Sooners will defeat Alabama to win their first CFP title.
| Jan. 11 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners | Oklahoma |
From Walk-on to Winner
When Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield was being recruited from powerhouse Lake Travis High School in Austin, Texas, there was a school that was high on him.
No, it wasn't the University of Texas, Southern California or even Oklahoma.
The school was Florida Atlantic.
Fast-forward to 2015, and the junior finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting and was named Sporting News Player of the Year. Most importantly, he has a chance to win the school's first national championship since 1999.
So what's the big deal? An Oklahoma quarterback having a good season is like saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west—two have won the Heisman in the past 12 years.
Mayfield, who threw for 3,389 yards, 35 touchdowns and five interceptions in the regular season, is a little different than most success stories. He ended up in Lubbock with the Texas Tech Red Raiders as a walk-on. After being forced into starting duty as a freshman, he made seven starts, was eventually benched and ended up leaving to walk on with the Sooners.
He has since earned a scholarship with Oklahoma and the respect of his head coach, Bob Stoops, per Matt Hayes of the Sporting News: “I don’t think you can overstate how important Baker has been to this team,” Stoops said.
That can be seen with the fact he has quarterbacked a Sooners squad that has won seven in a row while averaging more than 52 points per game in the process.
ESPN's Skip Bayless said despite everything, Mayfield is underrated:
Per Hayes, Mayfield seems to be in a good place with his new school: “Football should be fun,” Mayfield said. “We’re playing a game. We can be serious and we can be focused on what we have to do every single play. But the bottom line is we’re having fun playing a game.”
What should be fun for Sooners fans come Jan. 11 is watching this offense play.
Too Much of a Good Thing
Alabama's Derrick Henry deservedly won the 2015 Heisman after rushing for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns, never failing to score in one game this season.
He and the Crimson Tide lost only one game all year to the No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels and won yet another SEC Championship.
It's hard to argue he wasn't the best running back in the nation this season, and he was arguably the best player.
However, it may be the way Alabama is using Henry that could cost it the national championship.
In the past two games, he carried the ball 90 times. His 339 carries are tops in the nation and 20 more than Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey, who is second on the list.
ESPN's John Clayton weighed in on Henry's workload, per ESPN Radio:
He'll have a nice 26-day break between the SEC Championship Game and the Cotton Bowl, but at what point do all the carries take a toll on him?
A rookie in nearly every professional sport will "hit a wall" late in the year because he isn't used to the length and rigor of the longer season. The title game will be the 15th for Henry, one less than an NFL season.
DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 392 carries a year ago. LeSean McCoy was second at 312. Henry carried the ball only 172 times as a sophomore and 36 as a freshman.
Henry, who already broke the Alabama record for most carries in a season, addressed the situation last week, according to of AL.com:
"People make a big deal about these carries. I mean, I want the ball. I want to play so it's not a big deal to me.
I mean, it's rare, but I want the ball when I play, and I told coach I want the ball. I want to help the team win. When you have somebody that's the leader of the team, that's something you should respect.
"
Those are the words of a true competitor, but it doesn't take away from the fact his body has never been through anything like this before, and each game from here on out is going to be more physically and mentally draining, every snap becoming more important than the last.
What makes it more critical is the fact the Crimson Tide passing game, ranked fifth in yards and sixth in touchdowns in the SEC, is above average at best.
Henry has confidence in senior quarterback Jake Coker, per Casagrande:
"Everybody knows that's what Alabama runs, our tradition, we run the ball being physical, trying to wear down the opponent. We can pass the ball too. Jake got better week after week. Like I said, I just want to make plays. I just want them to give me the ball and I'll take it.
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Like Henry himself said, running the ball down opponents' throats is what Alabama does. The Tide have been doing it so much this year that if it doesn't work against Oklahoma, the Sooners will make them pay.
Prediction
Both of these teams are deserving, and it's hard to say they aren't the best two in the land.
It could certainly go either way, but the Sooners offense is just too hard to ignore at this point. The Alabama front seven is as good as it gets, but Mayfield and the Sooners can rely on an air attack that should be able to put up yards on the Alabama secondary.
Look for the Tide to stay close throughout this one, and maybe even take an early lead, but the Sooners will pull away in the end.
Prediction: Oklahoma wins, 27-17.
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