
Examining the Minnesota Vikings' Potential Playoff Scenarios
Despite losing to the Arizona Cardinals and dropping to 8-5 in Week 14, the Minnesota Vikings are still in a prime position to make the six-team NFC playoff field.
In fact, if the season ended today, the Vikings would be in as the conference's No. 6 seed. Minnesota is one of only five teams in the NFC with a winning record after 13 games, which makes the Vikings a great bet to enter the postseason as either the NFC North champion or as one of the two wild-card teams.
In the following slides, we'll examine a few of the more probable playoff scenarios for the Vikings, who finish the 2015 season with home games against the Chicago Bears and New York Giants and a trip to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers.
Need to Know
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Here are some things to know about the Vikings' current position in the playoff picture:
- The Vikings can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Chicago Bears in Week 15 and a bunch of help, including losses by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons.
- The Vikings clinch a playoff berth with any combination of two wins over the final three games.
- The Vikings clinch the NFC North and the No. 3 seed with three wins.
- The Vikings are not capable of getting to the No. 2 seed. The Cardinals already have 11 wins and possess a head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Final three games: vs. Chicago Bears, vs. New York Giants, at Green Bay Packers.
Division Champion, No. 3 Seed
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The best scenario for the Vikings would be winning the final three games, which would clinch the NFC North and the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
Crazier things have happened. The Vikings are 4-2 at home, with losses against two likely playoff teams (Packers, Seahawks). The next two weeks will bring the Bears and Giants to Minnesota, and neither team is currently above .500. If Minnesota can take care of business at home, Week 17 would represent a de facto division title game in Green Bay.
Even if the two teams finish with the same final record, the Vikings would win the division with a victory in Week 17 due to the divisional record tiebreaker.
The Packers are 5-2 at home, but they've looked far from invincible at Lambeau Field in 2015. Both the Bears and Detroit Lions have won there this season. If the Vikings can go down to Arizona and give the Cardinals a real game on a short week, they can make the quick trip east and compete with the Packers at Lambeau.
Wild Card, No. 6 Seed
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Without a win at Lambeau Field in Week 17, the Vikings are likely to finish as the No. 6 seed. That's good enough for the postseason, but it'd also likely include a trip back to Green Bay to play the Packers, who would secure the No. 3 seed in this scenario (although it is possible for Green Bay to get to the No. 2 seed).
Why the No. 6 seed? Minnesota is unlikely to jump Seattle for No. 5.
The Seahawks currently have a better conference record than Minnesota, plus a head-to-head win over the Vikings. Seattle also plays the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams at home over the next two weeks, which makes at least 10 wins a likely finish. If the Seahawks get to 10 wins, they lock up the No. 5 seed, leaving the Vikings to fight for the sixth slot.
Essentially, the Vikings can either win at Lambeau or settle for the No. 6 seed. It's getting close to being that simple.
Miss the Postseason
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To miss the postseason, the Vikings would almost certainly need to lose out and finish 8-8.
A .500 record would give a host of teams a chance to sneak in, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. While no team currently behind the Vikings in the standings has a winning record, all four clubs listed above are capable of finishing 9-7 and jumping Minnesota for the final slot.
It wouldn't be easy for any of the teams. The Buccaneers and Falcons both have to play the unbeaten Carolina Panthers over the final three weeks, while the Eagles host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Washington finishes with two road games inside the NFC East.
It is currently possible for both the Buccaneers and Eagles to finish 8-8 and beat out the Vikings on tiebreakers. Two wins will officially clinch a playoff berth for the Vikings, but just one win over the final three games will still make it difficult for Minnesota to miss the postseason.
Prediction: 10-6, No. 6 Seed
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The Vikings have lost two straight games and three out of the last four, but the most likely finish for Minnesota is still 10-6 and a trip to the postseason as the No. 6 seed.
Barring an unforeseen injury to either Teddy Bridgewater or Adrian Peterson, the Vikings will be favorites to beat the Bears and Giants at home over the next two weeks—for good reason. This team has proved itself capable of beating lesser foes in 2015. The Vikings will likely be underdogs to win at Lambeau Field, especially after the Packers beat them by 17 points in Minnesota in November.
Could the Bears or Giants beat the Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium? Sure. Could the Vikings win in Green Bay? Absolutely.
The safe money is on two wins at home and a loss at Lambeau. There's no shame in 10-6 and a second chance at beating the Packers in Green Bay. A home playoff game is always better, but back-to-back games at Lambeau would make for great theater.
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