Teams on Upset Alert in 2015-16 College Football Bowl Season
Thanks to tie-ins and selection orders from individual conferences, the majority of games during college football bowl season are close matchups on paper.
But a few bowl games have clear favorites, with some even approaching double digit point spreads. Whether it be from a Power Five opponent facing a Group of Five upstart or a pair of opponents heading in opposite directions, "upsets" can still happen in the postseason.
Which teams in this year's loaded bowl schedule are more likely to end their seasons with a surprising loss?
Here are seven teams, all of which are favored by a touchdown or more, per Odds Shark, who could fall in the next few weeks.
Granted, these aren't outright upset picks. They are bowl games that may play closer than the experts in Las Vegas think, and they're based on potential matchup problems, bowl locations and how the teams finished their regular seasons.
Tell us who you think should be on upset alert this bowl season in the comments below.
Arizona
1 of 7
Game: Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 19
Opponent: New Mexico
Line: Arizona (-9.5)
Arizona will wrap up what has been a disappointing and injury-filled 2015 season at the New Mexico Bowl—a far cry from the Fiesta Bowl spot it enjoyed last year.
Almost an entire month off from action should only help these banged-up Wildcats, who went 6-6 in the regular season and dropped four of their final five games. But in order to avoid the upset from New Mexico, the Wildcats need to see a turnaround in their run defense, having allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the Pac-12 this year.
Arizona will get a heaping helping of running plays from New Mexico, which is bowling for the first time since 2007. Under head coach Bob Davie, the Lobos garnered great success this season with a rushing attack that ranks fifth nationally in touchdowns, eighth in yards per game and an impressive 20th in yards per carry.
New Mexico is playing a de facto home game to cap the best season it's had in almost a decade. Arizona, on the other hand, is trying to avoid a losing record in what has already been a rough campaign. Don't be surprised if an amped-up New Mexico team starts rolling against Arizona.
Boise State
2 of 7
Game: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23
Opponent: Northern Illinois
Line: Boise State (-8)
Another team hoping to end what has been a disappointing year on a high note is none other than Arizona's Fiesta Bowl opponent from last season, Boise State. The Broncos went 8-4 in a season that started with high hopes and faded with rare consecutive home losses in November.
For the third straight season, Northern Illinois will play in a Group of Five showcase game of sorts during bowl season. The Huskies lost their last two postseason matchups—and an additional Orange Bowl defeat to Florida State in 2012—so they'll be looking to end their bowl-game blues against Boise State.
At first glance, Northern Illinois' run-first offense might look like a favorable matchup for Boise State's defense, which ranks 13th nationally against the ground game. But those numbers aren't representative of how Boise finished the regular season; the Broncos allowed a staggering 5.25 yards per carry in November to three Mountain West opponents that love to run the rock.
Northern Illinois has also picked off the fourth-most passes of any defense in college football this season, which will be another possible advantage against a Boise State offense that is ninth in passing attempts per game. The Football Study Hall stat projection of this game calls for a tight win for Boise, and this one looks like it'll be much closer than the eight-point spread.
Minnesota
3 of 7
Game: Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 28
Opponent: Central Michigan
Line: Minnesota (-6)
Minnesota is one of three 5-7 teams that made the postseason this year, and an eight-loss season for the Golden Gophers might be closer than many realize. They dropped six of their final eight games of the regular season, which included a four-game losing streak against Big Ten foes.
Central Michigan, Minnesota's opponent in the Quick Lane Bowl, was a much different story toward the end of 2015. The Chippewas won five of their last six games behind a strong defense, one that is ranked 16th in yards allowed per game this season.
They did a great job limiting big plays both on the ground and through the air in the offense-friendly MAC. Minnesota doesn't exactly have an explosive offense, finishing near the bottom of the barrel nationally in plays of 10 or more yards.
Minnesota and Central Michigan will arrive at this game from quite different paths, and it's hard not to go with the hot hand in this one. The Golden Gophers might be the bigger and more talented bunch, but the Chippewas did a great job this season hanging with Power Five opponents such as Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State. This time, they'll stand a better chance of getting the W.
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Cal
4 of 7
Game: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 29
Opponent: Air Force
Line: Cal (-7)
Cal will enter the Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force after a weird saga involving head coach Sonny Dykes. The Golden Bears re-signed Dykes to an extension late last week after almost a month of tense negotiation and reports of him being linked to vacancies all across the country.
"A lot of the stuff that came out was not right, but that's OK," Dykes said, per Carl Steward of the San Jose Mercury News. "There was a lot of speculation and a lot of inaccuracies, but the most important thing, I'm just excited about having (the extension), playing the bowl game against Air Force and all the stuff in front of us."
What's out in front of this Cal team is an Air Force squad that came close to winning the Mountain West and went on a five-game streak of victories late in the season. The Falcons are known for their option-running attack, but they showed late in the season that they can hurt teams through the air, too, for huge plays.
That spells trouble for a Cal defense that continuously gave up chunks of yardage all season and was 94th in yards allowed per rushing attempt. The Golden Bears will be able to move the ball with Jared Goff at quarterback, but the variety of ways Air Force can beat this defense should make for a long day for Cal.
Florida State
5 of 7
Game: Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31
Opponent: Houston
Line: Florida State (-7)
Florida State didn't repeat as ACC champion this season, but a 10-2 campaign for a young Seminoles team has to be encouraging for Jimbo Fisher and his staff. They'll hope to finish strong against one of the nation's hottest teams in Houston.
When dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is healthy, this Houston offense is one of the most exciting in the country. The Cougars have the ability to generate quick points, which is one of the reasons Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval picked them to upset the Seminoles.
"Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook is one of the country's best, but he's been the core of the offense," Kercheval wrote. "As weird as it sounds, Florida State's best bet may be maintaining a low-scoring situation and using Cook to grind down the game. Otherwise, a fast start for Houston could spell trouble."
Houston should be fired up to get a statement win under newly re-signed head coach Tom Herman. If it can slow down Cook—UH ranked eighth nationally in yards allowed per rush this season—Houston could definitely spring the upset over the talent-laden Seminoles.
Tennessee
6 of 7
Game: Outback Bowl, Jan. 1
Opponent: Northwestern
Line: Tennessee (-9)
One of the biggest favorites on the board for this year's bowl season, Tennessee will finish an uneven but solid 2015 season against Northwestern. The Volunteers, winners of five straight, are nine-point favorites against Northwestern.
That spread may come as a bit of surprise, considering Northwestern won 10 games this season. The Wildcats have a fierce defense ranked fourth nationally, according to the advanced S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders. Their offense doesn't have much firepower, but their defense was enough to handcuff plenty of quality opponents in 2015.
Tennessee's offense has been inconsistent this year under head coach Butch Jones. The Volunteers hung 53 points on an improved Vanderbilt defense to end the regular season, but it couldn't get much going against elite, top-10 defenses such as the ones from Alabama and Missouri.
Northwestern might also have more to play for in this one than Tennessee, as the Wildcats will fight for their first 11-win season in school history. If Northwestern can keep it low-scoring until the fourth quarter, watch out.
Ole Miss
7 of 7
Game: Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Opponent: Oklahoma State
Line: Ole Miss (-7)
Last year, Ole Miss came into a New Year's Six bowl riding high and was promptly thrashed by a Big 12 opponent. The Rebels will try to avoid a repeat of that history as they face Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.
Oklahoma State lost its final two games of the season in disappointing fashion, but the Cowboys were still able to snag this bid thanks to Baylor's late loss to Texas. If Oklahoma State can get quarterback Mason Rudolph back from a foot injury, it should be in good shape against an Ole Miss defense that allowed 400 yards in five of its final six games of the year.
That up-and-down Ole Miss defense could be missing two of its best players in the Sugar Bowl, too. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche wasn't expected to play against Oklahoma State, and star defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche was charged with marijuana possession Monday from an incident in which he fell from a wall outside a hotel room in Atlanta, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
This has all the makings of a high-scoring showdown, and Oklahoma State looks to be the healthier team. If the Cowboys can stay strong in forcing takeaways against a turnover-prone Ole Miss offense, they'll have a great shot at pulling off the upset in New Orleans.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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