NFL Playoffs 2015-16: AFC and NFC Predictions for Postseason

It's that time of year again when words like berth, seeding and clinch see a dramatic spike in usage, and that means the NFL playoffs are just around the corner. 

The New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals have secured trips to the postseason, and the Carolina Panthers already own a first-round bye. But the rest of the playoff picture in the AFC and NFC is still foggy with three weeks left to play. 

The fourth seed in both conferences will belong to whoever emerges from the ongoing disasters that are the AFC South and the NFC East. Those respective divisional battles make up perhaps the biggest uncertainty in each conference. 

But there are also three AFC teams with identical records vying for just two wild-card spots. The resolution of that situation will turn into some of the league's best theater as the season winds down and long-forgotten tiebreaker rules become relevant once more. 

Once the postseason actually arrives, all bets are off. Two of the AFC's most realistic contenders have no idea who will play quarterback for them in the playoffs. And the surging Seattle Seahawks could throw a socket wrench into the perceived hierarchy of the NFC. 

In preparation for that, let's evaluate the NFL playoff picture as it stands and use what we learned in Week 14 to predict the outcomes of several postseason dramas. 

Current Playoff Picture

Seed	AFC	NFC
1	New England Patriots (11-2)	Carolina Panthers (13-0)
2	Cincinnati Bengals (10-3)	Arizona Cardinals (11-2)
3	Denver Broncos (10-3)	Green Bay Packers (9-4)
4	Indianapolis Colts (6-7)	Washington Redskins (6-7)
5	Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)	Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
6	New York Jets (8-5)	Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

In the Hunt 

AFC	NFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Oakland Raiders (6-7)	Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Buffalo Bills (6-7)	Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Houston Texans (6-7)	New York Giants (5-7)*
Miami Dolphins (5-7)*	St. Louis Rams (5-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)	New Orleans Saints (5-8)
	Chicago Bears (5-8)
	Dallas Cowboys (4-9)

*Dolphins host Giants on Monday Night Football 

Predicted Final Playoff Picture

Seed	AFC	NFC
1	New England Patriots (14-2)	Carolina Panthers (16-0)
2	Denver Broncos (13-3)	Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
3	Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)	Green Bay Packers (11-5)
4	Houston Texans (9-7)	Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
5	Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)	Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
6	Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)	Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

AFC Predictions

Jets miss postseason in messy tiebreaker with Chiefs and Steelers

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

A very reasonable unfolding of events could have New York, Kansas City and Pittsburgh all tied at 10-6 at season's end with just two wild-card spots to go around. 

In that event, we would have to plunge into the seedy underworld of the NFL's postseason tiebreakers (via CBS Sports). Applying those rules, the Jets would be the odd team out.

The situation stops short of the coin toss that breaks a three-way wild-card tie when all else fails. But this deadlock between 10-6 squads would travel further down the list than we're used to. 

With each team hailing from a different division, they would bypass the first tiebreaker. Next, a head-to-head sweep would serve to qualify someone, but only the Chiefs and Steelers played each other this season, with the Jets drawing neither of them on the schedule. Therefore, that tiebreaker doesn't apply.

The first clarification we get is in the next step, which breaks the tie in favor of the team with the best conference record.

That's where Kansas City—finishing with a 9-3 mark in the AFC in this scenario—would qualify for the first wild-card spot. Pittsburgh and New York would most likely come away with identical 7-5 records in-conference, necessitating further tiebreaking madness. 

Ultimately, the Steelers would earn the sixth seed via their 4-1 record against opponents they have in common with the Jets. New York's likely 2-3 mark in games against the Patriots, Raiders, Browns and Colts would be its downfall. 

Pittsburgh eliminates short-handed Bengals

Frank Victores/Associated Press

After reaching the playoffs by the thinnest of margins, the Steelers would most likely draw the division-rival Bengals in the Wild Card Round. And that would be perfectly fine with Pittsburgh. 

In Week 14, the Steelers beat Cincinnati 33-20 after knocking Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton out of the game in the first quarter. Now it looks like the fractured thumb he suffered Sunday will sideline him for the rest of the regular season at least, according to ESPN's Bob Holtzman. 

With this catastrophic blow to the Bengals offense, the possibility exists that Pittsburgh could still surge into the division lead. But, aside from a likely loss in a trip to Denver, Cincinnati plays the hapless 49ers and Ravens to close out the season. 

Newly minted starter A.J. McCarron—who wasted no time in comparing himself to Tom Brady (via USA Today's Chris D'Amico)—should be able to collect at least one win in the final three regular-season games. And that's likely all Cincinnati needs to secure the AFC North title. 

But if Dalton isn't 100 percent come playoff time, a Bengals season that was once brimming with potential will end at the Steelers' hands in Round 1. 

With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is capable of beating Cincinnati on a level playing field. If the Bengals don't have Dalton, their elimination is all but a forgone conclusion. 

New England defends AFC title

Bob Levey/Getty Images

For the bulk of the season, the Bengals and Broncos represented the most formidable threats to the Patriots' AFC crown.

Now, both Cincinnati and Denver are mired in uncertainty at the quarterback position, while New England has regained its footing after two consecutive losses with a 27-6 win at Houston in Week 14. 

The Patriots look like clear favorites in the conference with Tom Brady's favorite pass-catching sasquatch healthy again. When Rob Gronkowski went down against the Broncos two weeks ago, the severity of the injury looked much greater than the one week he actually missed.  

Gronkowski caught four passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in his return. 

In the win over the Texans, the Patriots also created another serviceable running back out of thin air like they sometimes do. The most carries Brandon Bolden saw in a game this season before Sunday was five. But, against Houston, New England handed him the ball 16 times for 51 yards. 

After the Patriots lost Dion Lewis for the season, James White was the perceived heir to New England's loosely defined running back position. But White moved into an almost-exclusive pass-catching role Sunday, making four grabs and seeing just one carry from the backfield. 

All of this is to say, the Patriots are equipped for the stretch run. And no one in their conference has the power to stop them. 

NFC Predictions

The Eagles emerge as least terrible NFC East team

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

With the Cowboys imploding in Green Bay on Sunday, the NFC East is essentially a three-horse race now. And, in a shocking turn of events, two of the horses didn't look apathetic in Week 14. 

Washington and Philadelphia withstood late surges from Chicago and Buffalo, respectively, to earn wins and pull within one game of .500. The Giants have the chance to earn a tie atop the division when they take their 5-7 record to Miami Monday night. 

But regardless of New York's result against the Dolphins, it faces the most difficult remaining schedule of the NFC East contenders. In the final three weeks, the Giants play the unbeaten Panthers and the 8-5 Vikings before closing out the season against the Eagles. 

Philadelphia faces a likely loss when it hosts Arizona in Week 15, but it did just beat New England two weeks ago, and it finishes the season with two division games against Washington and New York. 

The Redskins have perhaps the most favorable schedule of the three, but they cannot be trusted to take advantage of it after the abomination they put together against the Cowboys before this week's win against Chicago. 

The Eagles have won three of their last four games, and quarterback Sam Bradford has been trending up in the process. Bradford's interception against Buffalo Sunday was his first in that four-game stretch, and the pick itself was hardly his fault. 

Bradford finished the win over the Bills with 247 yards and a touchdown, completing 23 of his 38 pass attempts. His improvement as of late should be enough to propel the Eagles to a division title while the rest of the NFC East struggles to get out of its own way. 

Seattle spoils Carolina's perfect season

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Seahawks have won six of their last seven games, they're in the top-five in the league in both total offense and total defense, Russell Wilson threw five touchdowns Sunday and they should scare any potential playoff opponent to death. 

And that opponent might be a 16-0 Panthers team. 

With Arizona planted firmly at the top of the NFC West, Seattle won't win its division. In that case, the highest-possible seed the Seahawks can earn is No. 5. Therefore, Seattle would most likely be the team to face the top-seeded Panthers in the divisional round if it's able to dispatch the NFC East winner in Round 1.

While Carolina's 13-0 record is an astounding accomplishment, especially for a team that finished under-.500 a year ago, the Panthers are not a typical juggernaut. Two weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight.com's Neil Paine made the data-based proclamation that Carolina was "the worst team to ever start 11-0." 

The website uses a metric called Elo ratings to measure "a team's talent level at any given moment in time." When the Panthers reached that point in the season unbeaten, they had the lowest Elo rating among the 12 teams in NFL history to start 11-0. 

In the present tense, Carolina has the second-highest Elo rating in the league behind New England. But Seattle is just seven points behind the Panthers in this metric. 

Carolina's last five opponents are all currently under .500, and the Panthers most likely won't face a team with a winning record again this regular season. They play the Giants, the Falcons and the Buccaneers in their final three games. 

After a bye in the Wild Card Round, the Panthers will have gone nine weeks without facing a formidable opponent before taking on what could be a Seattle team on an eight-game winning streak. In that event, the Seahawks would be in prime position to wake Carolina up from its dream season.