Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: DraftKings Breakout Rookies and Sleepers Dec. 11
You might actually find that the title of this article is a bit deceiving. Rookies, by nature, are volatile and average at best. Most of them play well for short spells, then fall into slumps. When they're performing well, because they're under the microscope, people notice. When people notice, the rookies' prices rapidly rise on DraftKings.
The two rookies I chose to write about today are both high-profile guys. I know they're not the best overall values on the board, but I like their matchups, and I think they're apt to perform well.
Rookies
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,600) vs. Timberwolves
While there are pieces of Mudiay's game that most basketball experts love, he has not put together a good start to the season. According to Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating, the Nuggets' point guard is the 19th worst player in the league. His assist-to-turnover ratio is the second worst in the league among point guards, and he's shooting just north of 31 percent from the field—that's Kobe territory.
However, he gets a plus matchup Friday night against a team that has no issue pushing the pace. He also seems to have gained the trust of coach Mike Malone, because no matter how poorly he plays, no matter how many turnovers he amasses, he's going to get his 29 minutes per game.
On Wednesday, No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell went for 23 points in an overtime loss to the Timberwolves. If Mudiay is the competitor we expected him to be, he'll try to top Russell's outing.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,000) @ Nuggets
Towns probably just passed Kristaps Porzingis again for the top spot on the Rookie of the Year ballot. While Kristaps struggled on the road, Towns posted 26 points and 14 boards in the win over the Lake Show just two games after a 27 and 12 night against Portland. He's shot over 55 percent in five of his last six outings, and he's averaging 2.3 blocks per game over his last 10 games, according to DraftKings.
But what really gives me confidence that Towns will excel is Friday night's competition. According to RotoGrinders, over the past three weeks, the Nuggets have allowed 59.9 fantasy points per game to opposing centers. That's the highest mark in the league by over 4.5 points.
Sleepers:
Tony Wroten ($3,600) vs. Pistons
Last season, Michael Carter-Williams missed the first seven games for the Philadelphia 76ers. Tony Wroten was his replacement. According to StatMuse, he scored 28.8 fantasy points in his worst game over that span:
Well, Wroten is back from an ACL injury, and though T.J. McConnell will cut into his minutes a little bit, he should fill up the stat sheet once again for a very bad Sixers squad.
Thursday night, he scored 18 fantasy points in just under 17 minutes. His time on the court should steadily increase, and with that, so will his minutes. Play him before his price jumps all the way back up above the $6,000 mark.
Kevin Martin ($4,000) @ Nuggets
Martin's listed as probable because he suffered a minor wrist injury against the Lakers on Wednesday, according to Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press. If he plays, he has an extremely high upside. Heck, he just scored 37 against the Lakers.
Did you know that Kevin Martin was drafted in 2004? He's quietly in his 12th season. Good for him. For 12 years, Martin has been great at two things: shooting and getting to the free-throw line. He uses the pump fake to get defenders in the air, then flops around the court like a salmon when he's touched. That tricky stuff should work well against young guys like Emmanuel Mudiay and Will Barton.
I'm not predicting another 37-point night, but Martin should exceed value against the sixth worst team in the league at defending opposing shooting guards.
Other Sleepers:
Goran Dragic ($5,100) @ Pacers
Kemba Walker ($7,000) @ Grizzlies
Luis Scola ($4,500) vs. Bucks
Trey Burke ($4,200) vs. Thunder
Marcin Gortat ($6,000) @ Pelicans
Alex Len ($5,000) vs. Blazers
Enter the DraftKings $35K Sharpshooter contest this weekend. Use the promo code BLEACHER REPORT when you sign up.
