Tyler Colvin: Does This Cubs Prospect Have Any Fantasy Value?

Last night the Cubs’ Tyler Colvin made his major league debut, going one for three with an RBI in the place of the recently suspended Milton Bradley.

The 2006 first-round pick is making the jump from Double-A, where he hit .300 with 14 HR and 50 RBI in just 307 AB.

Considering he was in the lineup, and considering that the Cubs are 10 games behind the Cardinals in the NL West, it would appear that he is here to play.

Before we dub him a must-use option in deeper fantasy formats, let’s take a little bit of a closer look. 

Before this season, he had never shown the type of power that he has displayed in 2009. He hit just 42 career home runs in 1,409 AB before being promoted to Double-A.  He had shown plenty he can hit doubles, however, with 79 two-baggers over that time.

Remember, he is just 24 years old, so the idea of him maturing and seeing some of those doubles carry further and going for home runs is not out of the question.  It’s hard to say that he will be able to continue the power surge he showed this season, but it certainly is not unbelievable.

His .300 average came courtesy of a .331 batting average on balls in play.  While you could consider that to be slightly above average, it is not a completely unrealistic number for him to reach in the majors. He showed a good enough eye at the plate at Double-A, posting an 18.6 percent strikeout rate, though he walked just 5.0 percent of the time.

The strikeout rate should be seen as slightly concerning. It is only marginally better then his career mark of 19.9 percent and he still has yet to face the best the game has to offer.

While one could argue that it is likely he doesn’t face the best pitching around over the final two weeks, it still would not be surprising to see the strikeout rate jump up a little bit.

I think the strikeout concern would be more of an issue in 2010, once major league teams have had a chance to see him and find out his strengths and weaknesses.  Of course, it is more likely that he opens the season at Triple-A than in the majors.

While he offers some power potential over the season’s final two weeks, he’s going to be hitting towards the bottom of the order (he debuted hitting seventh) and could struggle to put the ball in play. 

He’s a player to watch, who could make an impact in the middle of next season. But for now, he is not worth gambling on.  Until he proves he can produce in the majors, I wouldn’t necessarily consider him a sleeper for 2010, either.

See what he does.  Get a feel for how well he could produce.  He’s just not worth the risk at this critical fantasy time—though the next two weeks certainly could shape our opinion of him for 2010.

What do you think?  Is Colvin worth using in 2009 or are you better off watching him and scouting for the future?

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