NFL Picks and Predictions Week 14: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Week 13 proved to be prosperous for our weekly point-spread selections. As a reminder, cracking 52.5 percent is breaking even, while most gamblers aim to consistently hit above 55 percent. Last weekend, we managed to go 9-5, avoiding the Indianapolis-Pittsburgh game due to questions surrounding who would start in that match.

For the year, we're now over 55 percent with Week 13's result. We also managed to do well in our "locks" selections, going 3-2 for the week. Our wins were taking Seattle in a blowout of Minnesota, the Jets in an overtime match against the Giants and Dallas covering a 4.5-point spread against Washington on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, Houston couldn't pull the upset against Buffalo, instead losing by multiple scores, and Atlanta lost by two too many points in Tampa Bay.

Let's not waste too much time dwelling in the past. This week, with 15 games still on the full slate, we plan to keep above 55 percent in our total picks against the spread, while we hope to crack the 60 percent threshold in our "locks." There are only a few more weeks left in the season where we know every starter who can suit up will suit up, so we need to take advantage of every second.

All picks ATS: 95-76-5 (.554)

Locks of the Week ATS: 39-26-1 (.598)

Thursday Night Football: Minnesota @ Arizona

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Arizona Cardinals 23, Minnesota Vikings 20

Hey look, the better team at home won. Surprise!

With that being said, the Arizona Cardinals are legitimate title contenders who clinched a playoff berth with the win. Their opponents, the Minnesota Vikings—a respectable wild-card candidate—took them down to the wire. They should be respected for heading down to Arizona and giving the Cardinals a run for their money. The Cardinals don't slip up often, and when they do, they chose to do it against third-string quarterbacks, so the Vikings should be proud of their A-game.

Just the little things separated these two teams. Minnesota had shots at interceptions that it didn't bring down, and the game was sealed when Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil bit hard on a Dwight Freeney spin move to force a sack-fumble.

Still, this is another example of the public inflating a line too high. This line opened up with the Cardinals as seven-point favorites but jumped all the way to 10 before kickoff. A three-point win lost every Arizona-sided point spread on the night.

I also took it upon myself to note the NFL Network's pregame predictions from its studio. Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci, Michael Irvin, Bill Cowher and Deion Sanders predicted games of 41-20, 31-17, 35-21, 31-21 and 27-10, respectively, all in favor of the Cardinals. Based on the point spread and over-under bets, they would have gone a combined 1-9, with the only win coming on Prime Time's total. These are the guys who are paid to inform the public, and this is why aligning yourself with the public is mostly a bad idea.

Cover: Minnesota

Tennessee @ New York Jets

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Opening line: Tennessee @ New York Jets (-6)

Current line: Tennessee @ New York Jets (-7)

As someone who has been invested in Ryan Fitzpatrick the past few weeks, I can tell you he's a stressful player. He's only had one passer rating in the 96 to 63 range, which is concerning. He's either going to get into a groove and efficiently move the ball, or he's going to be a complete train wreck.

After he had four total interceptions against the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans in November, I wanted to write him off. Then, he threw for four touchdowns in an 18-point victory against the Miami Dolphins and backed that performance up with a 390-yard game against the Giants in the battle for New York, which ended in a 23-20 overtime win for the Jets.

The Jets are a team that sways often, and swinging with them won't net you much of an edge because you're chasing, just like the public. The Tennessee Titans scored 42 points last weekend with nothing to play for. Their quarterback, Marcus Mariota, has a fatal flaw: sack-fumbles.

Who is "the guy" in the pass-rushing unit for the Jets? Is anyone going to take advantage of Mariota's Achilles' heel?

Mariota is a never-say-die type who will keep the Titans in the game, though they don't have the talent to close often. Last week's matchup was the first Tennessee has won in regular in non-Week 1 games since it beat the Jaguars in October 2014, a 16-14 victory in Nissan Stadium. The Flyin' Hawaiian's team won't pull off a straight-up victory, but the Jets have only won by more than seven points once in their last seven games (against Miami). The odds are off here.

The pick: Tennessee (+7)

San Diego @ Kansas City

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Opening line: San Diego @ Kansas City (-7.5)

Current line: San Diego @ Kansas City (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs pulled away with another double-digit victory this past weekend, but if you watched the game, you know the Oakland Raiders had chances to steal the win. I get that the Chiefs have been dominant for a while, and I have been riding that wave, but they can't continue to see success at this level.

The Carolina Panthers haven't lost a game this season and have about as many blowout victories as the 7-5 Chiefs. At some point, the other shoe is going to drop. The San Diego Chargers are a team that can pass behind Philip Rivers, even if he and Matt Schaub are trying to boat-race the league in pick-sixes. San Diego is going to cover in this game late, ruining the Chiefs' six-game streak of winning by seven-plus points.

Double-digit favorites in an in-division game. Layup.

The pick: San Diego (+10.5)

Buffalo @ Philadelphia

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Opening line: Buffalo @ Philadelphia (-1)

Current line: Buffalo @ Philadelphia (+1)

From a power-ranking standpoint, you have to throw out Philadelphia's two back-to-back games where it allowed 45 points. I know it sounds like selection bias, but there have been two Eagles teams this year.

The first one you're familiar with. It has a top-10 defense. The wear of 2015, with Chip Kelly's offense stalling, left that unit gassed, though. The Eagles just didn't have enough in the tank to play two games in five days. Since getting that little extra post-Thanksgiving break, though, they beat the New England Patriots, who were almost favored by two touchdowns at one point last week.

This is almost like Peyton Manning's situation after Denver's bye week. The issue isn't talent but health. Manning was only able to hold up for a week before regressing. I'm willing to bet that Philadelphia's defense is in better shape than a soon-to-be 40-year-old passer with a neck issue.

A well-rested Eagles team is better than the Buffalo Bills, who no doubt will be sending LeSean McCoy, a former Kelly Eagle, as a team captain for this game. Rex Ryan just loves to play head games. Unfortunately, I don't think this "revenge" spot will suit them well.

The pick: Philadelphia (+1)

San Francisco @ Cleveland

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Opening line: San Francisco @ Cleveland (PK)

Current line: San Francisco @ Cleveland (-1.5)

Let's look at the Cleveland Browns' top-100 picks under Jimmy Haslam, their current owner. In 2013, at sixth overall they took Barkevious Mingo, an edge-rusher who has started two games in his third year in the league, and at 68th overall they took Leon McFadden, a corner who played one year with the team before getting cut. They had no second-round pick, as they used it during the previous supplemental draft for receiver Josh Gordon, who made a Pro Bowl in 2013 but has played five games since that season due to suspension.

In 2014, they traded back from fourth overall with Buffalo in an exchange headlined by the eighth overall pick and a 2015 first-round choice. Buffalo took Sammy Watkins, and the Browns decided to trade up to secure Justin Gilbert. The one-selection swap with the Minnesota Vikings reunited the teams that also had a one-selection swap in the 2012 draft when Cleveland traded up for Trent Richardson, a running back taken third overall who is now out of the league. Gilbert, a cornerback, has started three games in two seasons.

The Browns did know when to cut ties with Richardson, sending him to Indianapolis for a first-round pick. They used that 2014 pick on Johnny Manziel, who we will talk about later. The Browns hit on Joel Bitonio, who looks to be a decadelong starter at guard, but their other top-100 picks in 2014, Chris Kirksey and Terrance West, have disappointed. Kirksey has only started four games in his second season, while West now plays for the Browns' in-division rival the Baltimore Ravens, his hometown team.

Their 2015 class isn't looking much better, either. Danny Shelton, a nose tackle, is a sideline-to-sideline player, but as a two-gap defensive lineman, it's hard to show up in a production column, unless you're J.J. Watt. Guard Cameron Erving, the bonus selection Cleveland received from Buffalo, has been using expletives (Warning: NSFW language) to describe his performance.

Nate Orchard, a stiff pass-rusher, hasn't made much of an impact. It's hard for defensive tackle Xavier Cooper to see the field when he's a one-trick pony as a penetrator. Running back Duke Johnson averages fewer than three yards per carry and seven rushes per game in an offense that is desperately looking for a full-time back.

At some point, don't we start blaming decision-makers and developers for not getting these guys up to speed or for taking them in the first place? Especially with the Manziel fiasco? He wasn't good as a rookie, but Mike Pettine and Co. seem to have gone against ownership and made it a point at the beginning of the season to not play the former Heisman winner. Josh McCown played too many games, and we know it.

The issue is, by the time Manziel won the job, we were deep enough into the season that he would get into trouble during a bye week. From that point on, he was publicly blasted by the franchise, which listed him as the third-string quarterback. There's that line in Friday: "How do you get fired on your day off?" When they want to be, the Browns are the most innovative team in the league.

So that's it, right? Pettine put his foot down against Manziel, who from an outsider's perspective was never wanted by that coaching staff anyway. Wrong. McCown goes down with a season-ending injury, and the second-string quarterback, who leaped Manziel due to morality, starts to cost them in games. Costing a coaching staff that may be the next on the chopping block.

So what does the scared staff do? They bring Manziel back into the limelight in an attempt to save their jobs. This is how bad teams stay bad. Every decision can't be filtered through in-franchise politics or job security. Very rarely does it seem like decisions are made for the betterment of the team as a whole, and it shows up on Sundays.

The Browns have one win in regulation this season, against the Tennessee Titans. They won a game in early September against a rookie quarterback who had three sack-fumbles, and they haven't closed in the fourth quarter since. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have covered in three of their four games in the Blaine Gabbert era, and they're listed as underdogs again this week. The west-to-east trend doesn't bother me here, because Cleveland is a mess.

The pick: San Francisco (+1.5)

Seattle @ Baltimore

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Due to the starting quarterback situation of the Baltimore Ravens being unclear, as Matt Schaub has missed time and Jimmy Clausen was added to the squad midseason, few books have lines up on this game yet. Earlier this season, Clausen started against the Seattle Seahawks, delivering a 9-of-17 game for 63 yards in the air and no interceptions or touchdowns. He was basically a checkdown-to-punt passer.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Opening line: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Current line: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-4)

Possibly two of the worst defenses in the league go head-to-head this week. Do not be surprised if both teams score in the 40s. This is a point-spread prediction piece, but the smartest bet of the week is the over in this in-division game.

So if neither team is going to play defense, the power-ranking edge has to go to the better offense, right? The New Orleans Saints are the more consistent team on that side of the ball. Tampa Bay's quarterback, Jameis Winston, has been on a hell of a hot streak, and the Saints are now minus their top tailback Mark Ingram, but I'll take the steady ball movement of Drew Brees over a young, fluctuating Buccaneers roster right now.

This game is going to be a down-to-the-wire shootout, and it has a good shot to be the best game on Sunday. Since Lovie Smith has taken over as the head coach of Tampa, the team hasn't had much luck at home. In 2014, the Bucs won no games at Raymond James Stadium. In 2015, they've won three times: against the Jacksonville Jaguars, against the Matt Cassel Dallas Cowboys—when Winston fumbled at the goal line just to get bailed out by an interference call that eventually led to a last-minute go-ahead score—and against the Atlanta Falcons last week.

Sure, the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the Superdome by a touchdown in Week 2, but the Saints are coming off scoring 38 points on the mighty and undefeated Carolina Panthers. That offense is just clicking in ways it didn't earlier in the season, and it's time to strike while the iron is hot and while bandwagon fantasy fans are obsessed with Winston and his 6-6 record.

The pick: New Orleans (+4)

Atlanta @ Carolina

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Opening line: Atlanta @ Carolina (-6.5)

Current line: Atlanta @ Carolina (-9)

First off, if you are the type of person who would likes to bet on the Carolina Panthers finishing undefeated, you will more than likely have better odds by betting each game individually than a packaged play that's offered by a book. With that being said, I don't see it happening.

It's just so hard to finish undefeated in the NFL that I can't wrap my head around it. Not when Carolina's insanely strong defense allowed 38 points last weekend. Has the Panthers defense worn out like the Philadelphia Eagles' did before their post-Thanksgiving break? I'm willing to test the waters, considering the spread is above seven points.

The Falcons may be off to an odd 6-6 record after a 5-0 start, but despite the fact that they've lost five straight games, only one (against the Minnesota Vikings) was by more than four points. The Panthers are the best team in the NFC South and possibly the NFC overall, but Cam Newton and Co. haven't taken a day off all regular season, and it might start to take a toll on them down the stretch. Losing can be a blessing in disguise at times, as it lets you get back to the drawing board.

Right now, the Panthers are grinding out in ways they have all season, even when players such Ted Ginn Jr. are costing them points, while the Falcons have been afforded the opportunity to restructure their schemes a bit. I'm still taking Carolina straight up, but a two-score win might be out of reach when you consider how Atlanta has still looked respectable during its slide.

A lot of the Falcons' losses can be tied to Matt Ryan's tendency to throw interceptions near the red zone. Ed Werder of ESPN noted an interesting stat that ESPN Stats & Info was able to pull on Ryan: "All five of Matt Ryan’s fourth-quarter interceptions this season have come in one-score games, most in the NFL." That seems more like an outlier than anything else. Regression to the mean is how we make money, while the public chases narratives.

The pick: Atlanta (+9)

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Opening line: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-3.5)

Current line: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-2.5)

This is an interesting spot for everyone involved. Pittsburgh's offense is red-hot, despite some major injuries. Outside of the quarterback, you'd probably say the players on offense with the most impact on a play-to-play basis are the starting left tackle, starting center and starting running back. The Steelers are missing all three of those, after losing their quarterback for spots this season.

Remember, Pittsburgh beat the Arizona Cardinals, the current Super Bowl leaders in Vegas, by double digits with its third-string quarterback. The fact the Steelers are 7-5 is amazing.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, is the leader in the AFC and is playing for the top seed in the playoffs, while the Steelers are hoping to land as a wild card. Missing a couple of key offensive linemen and a top back will most likely become an issue for Pittsburgh, as Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins has destroyed just about everything that's come across his path this season.

This is a simple pick for me. Both of these teams are good and can win a game. It's a three-point line, which means they're just about even on a neutral field. I can get behind that. I'm just going to lean on the team that's getting healthier as the season progresses rather than the one that is slowly breaking down.

The pick: Cincinnati (-2.5)

Washington @ Chicago

Associated Press

Opening line: Washington @ Chicago (-1)

Current line: Washington @ Chicago (-3.5)

How is Washington the better team here? This opened up with the Redskins being only one-point underdogs on the road. I understand that they lead the NFC East and that NFC East teams out of in-division matchups are rarely value plays because they are all "public" teams, but this line was shocking.

Jay Cutler is having a great season by his own standards, and a week ago the Bears looked like they could have legitimately made a run for the NFC North title. For the most part, the Redskins are still living off their Week 2 victory against the St. Louis Rams, who we later learned weren't that good. Their only other two-score victory was against the New Orleans Saints, who have lost four games by double digits and eight overall in 2015.

Yes, the Chicago Bears lost last weekend against the 49ers and Blaine Gabbert in embarrassing fashion. Still, the fact that they haven't lost by more than three points in regulation since Jimmy Clausen was sent back to the bench, and then eventually cut, is telling. This squad is clicking, even though it doesn't have much talent.

The pick: Chicago (-1)

Detroit @ St. Louis

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Opening line: Detroit @ St. Louis (-2.5)

Current line: Detroit @ St. Louis (+3)

Holy overreaction, Batman.

A couple of weeks ago, the Detroit Lions were on their way to the first overall pick. A couple of weeks ago, the St. Louis Rams were a sleeper pick to upset someone in the NFC Wild Card Round. Now? Everything has changed.

When the Rams are on, they're hard to stop. They have a strong defense, which is now missing some key pieces but still flashes, and a ground game with misdirection concepts that are enough to beat some teams in the NFL. Both of these head coaches might be gone by the time the season ends, but a game still needs to be played, even if neither team is likely to make any postseason buzz.

I just can't take Matthew Stafford on the road. The Lions are 4-8 overall against the spread this season, while the Rams are at least 3-3 at home. If you would have told me in Week 9 or 10 that I had an opportunity to bet against Detroit as a road favorite, I would have started saving my money from that point on. Smart bettors view this game as a punt, while Vegas is taking a stand to bring in public bettors to the wrong side.

The Lions have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and get to face Todd Gurley on his home turf. Sure, Detroit has had extended rest after having its heart ripped out by the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, but their recent hot streak has been fueled by back-to-back-to-back home games, with the last two being televised nationally. Good luck, Lions fans.

The pick: St. Louis (+3)

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Fred Vuich/Associated Press

Opening line: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-1.5)

Current line: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (PK)

Matt Hasselbeck has been going through full practices lately, which means he's more than likely going to start for the Indianapolis Colts this weekend, as they're still missing Andrew Luck. That's a huge positive, as I view the 40-year-old veteran passer as a huge upgrade over the would-be starter if Hasselbeck couldn't suit up: Charlie Whitehurst, who is known best for taking a horrible Seahawks team to an NFC West title.

If you disband all the narratives from this season, are we really surprised at where these teams are? The Colts look to be on their way to another AFC South title, largely because the division is horrid, not thanks to the talent in Indianapolis. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a young team hovering around .500, making big steps toward the right direction in a rebuilding year.

This is a fairly casual Colts-Jaguars game in the Luck Era. Since he was drafted in 2012, Indianapolis has gone 6-1 against Jacksonville, including three double-digit wins in EverBank Stadium by scores of 27-10, 37-3 and 44-17. In fact, the Colts have won the last six straight, with the Jaguars' one win coming in the September of Luck's rookie season.

In a tossup, just based on how these two teams have looked head-to-head for over three seasons, I'm going to lean on the Colts. Young players tend to have higher variances, and Indianapolis' steady aim has earned it back-to-back-to-back division titles under its current management. I see no reason why this would change now.

The pick: Indianapolis (+1.5)

Oakland @ Denver

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Opening line: Oakland @ Denver (-6)

Closing line: Oakland @ Denver (-7.5)

This Brock Osweiler experience has been fun, but the fun is coming to an end. At least from a power-ranking perspective, the public has now over-corrected on the Denver Broncos. Sure, Osweiler isn't a liability for Gary Kubiak in the ways that Peyton Manning was, but don't get that confused with Osweiler becoming a franchise quarterback.

Really, he's been average outside of one deep ball he hit during a nationally televised game. Blaine Gabbert has essentially had the same success in San Francisco as Osweiler has had in Denver. If Gabbert were starting for the Broncos, what would the line look like? It wouldn't be above a touchdown. This is where narratives start to mess with your wallet.

The Raiders have the quarterback edge, and the team with the quarterback edge should never be a two-score underdog. If this game were in Oakland, the Broncos would likely be favorites on the road. The Raiders have proved to be respectable as the season has rolled along, and I would take them straight up in that situation. When the public zigs, you need to zag to make money.

The pick: Oakland (+7.5)

Dallas @ Green Bay

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Opening line: Dallas @ Green Bay (-5)

Closing line: Dallas @ Green Bay (-7)

Short and simple: The Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers are one-score favorites against the Matt Cassel Dallas Cowboys. You figure that the difference between Tony Romo and Cassel is at least six points. That means based on this current line, the Romo Cowboys would be favored over the Packers, who are 8-4, on a neutral field. Sure.

The pick: Green Bay (-5)

Sunday Night Football: New England @ Houston

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Opening line: New England @ Houston (+3.5)

Closing line: New England @ Houston (+3.5)

The New England Patriots have won nine games this season by four or more points. I know that the Patriots have dropped two consecutive games, but they are 10-2 and faced two of the toughest defenses in the league in those two losses. Even with J.J. Watt, the league's best player, this game will be much easier for the New England offense than the Broncos or the well-rested Eagles were.

It should be noted Watt broke his hand in practice this week but will still play. If there's one thing the Patriots do best, it's eliminate the best player on the field. I don't expect Watt to make a huge impact this week. With him gone, who is "the guy" in Houston? DeAndre Hopkins? If the top Texan on either side of the ball is erased, as New England has done for a decade, it's going to get ugly.

Denver had stars all over its defense and took the game into overtime. Fletcher Cox had a monster game against the Patriots, and the Eagles were able to post three return touchdowns and still almost allowed New England back into the game.

There's just too much going on with the "Rob Gronkowski is out" narrative. It isn't doomsday in Boston. This team is in the Super Bowl hunt, while the Texans can't even control the worst division in football. If you have the opportunity to take the Patriots by fewer than two scores, it's smart not to doubt the champs.

The pick: New England (-3.5)

Monday Night Football: New York Giants @ Miami

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Opening line: New York Giants @ Miami (PK)

Closing line: New York Giants @ Miami (+1)

This is where Eli Manning wants you. He's completed 44 passes out of his 85 attempts in the last two games with three touchdowns and four interceptions coming out of those two losses to Washington and the Jets. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC East. Let me stress it again: This is exactly where Manning wants you.

Tom Coughlin has a gift for transitioning a mild team into a hot streak late in the season. This game is a coin toss for most books right now. However, the Giants have had a better season than the Dolphins, who when they fail, fail traumatically.

This really is the tale of two franchises. One, New York, is stable and crashes through waves to prove its consistency. The other, Miami, is constantly shifting in an attempt to make up for lost ground whenever things go poorly. I mean, just look at how many coaches the Dolphins have lost this season—and in different weeks in the season. At some point, you have to assume that's going to catch up with them.

The first man in the line of command is Dan Campbell, but it appears like Ndamukong Suh is second on the list, if you believe anything these locker-room reports have been saying over the past couple of months. I just want to put my money in a safe place. The Giants are like buying bonds, while the Dolphins are like investing in a South Beach butt-lift facility.

The pick: New York Giants (PK)

Locks of the Week

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

1. Detroit @ St. Louis (+3)
2. New Orleans (+4) @ Tampa Bay
3. San Francisco (+1.5) @ Cleveland
4. New York Giants (PK) @ Miami
5. Buffalo @ Philadelphia (+1)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.