Cotton Bowl 2015: Breaking Down Biggest X-Factors in Alabama vs. Michigan State
Alabama's return to the College Football Playoff will see it face another Big Ten team with a pro-style offense fueled by a power running game.
That matchup didn't work out so well for the Tide a season ago, as Ohio State controlled the game from start to finish before moving on to defeat Oregon in the national championship game.
On paper, this appears to be a matchup of strength versus strength.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Alabama is at its best when controlling the run game behind Derrick Henry, while Michigan State's biggest strength on defense is stopping the run.
In these types of games, it's usually X-factors—players and units outside of the team's traditional strengths—that make the difference between a win and a loss. Here's a look at some players, units and matchups which could play that role in the Cotton Bowl.
Biggest X-Factors
Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun vs Alabama LT Cam Robinson
Alabama's game plan will be to ride Derrick Henry to victory, but the Spartans defense is strong enough to slow Henry down enough to force Alabama into at least a few passing situations.
How quarterback Jake Coker fares when he needs to make a play to keep a drive alive could decide the outcome of the game.
Shilique Calhoun has been Michigan State's most effective pass-rusher this season, leading the team with 10.5 sacks.
In the Cotton Bowl, Calhoun will frequently find himself lined up against Alabama left tackle Cam Robinson, who has been a weak link on the Crimson Tide offensive line this season.
According to CFB Film Room, Robinson had the worst pass-blocking percentage on Alabama's line:
"Alabama LT Cam Robinson finished regular season with pass-block success rate of 94.3% (22 total QB pressures) and team-high 10 penalties
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) December 9, 2015"
Robinson entered the season nursing a shoulder injury, according to AL.com's , which may have influenced his poor performance.
Perhaps Robinson will have enough time to get back to full strength before the game, but if he continues to play at the level he has demonstrated during the regular season, stopping Calhoun could be an issue in the Cotton Bowl.
Alabama Special Teams
The Tide's special teams unit has been critical to their late-season success, especially in games in which the offense has found little success aside from Henry.
Return specialist Cyrus Jones has returned three punts for touchdowns this season, including a game-changing play against Mississippi State to give Alabama an early lead in Week 11.
The Tide also blocked a punt out of the end zone for a safety and later added a blocked field goal against Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Since the Cotton Bowl is expected to be a low-scoring game—the over/under is set at 47 points, according to OddsShark.com—any special teams plays could dramatically swing momentum in Alabama's favor.
Alabama's Secondary vs Michigan State QB Connor Cook
When Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly carved up the Alabama secondary in the Rebels' September 19 victory, it appeared as though it might be a long season for the Tide defense.
But defensive coordinator Kirby Smart's unit gradually improved, and appeared to be back to the level of play we have come to expect from Alabama by season's end.
Cornerback Cyrus Jones has among the leaders of the secondary late in the season, as he allowed just two receptions in the team's final three SEC games, according to CFB Film Room.
However, it's worth noting that the Tide wasn't exactly facing future NFL quarterbacks for much of its SEC schedule.
The Tide shut down the likes of Florida's Treon Harris, Auburn's Jeremy Johnson and LSU's Brandon Harris, but how much did those matchups prepare them for Connor Cook?
Michigan State's offense is the most similar unit to Ole Miss' the Tide have faced. We'll learn just how much Alabama's secondary has grown based on its ability to slow down Cook and receiver Aaron Burbridge.
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
