Predicting Winner for Every Big Ten Football Bowl Game
College football's regular season has come to a close, Championship Week has come and gone and bowl games across the country are getting set to kick off.
As far as the Big Ten's concerned, the conference will be well-represented this winter, with 10 teams from the league accepting invitations to play in bowl games.
From 5-7 teams filling vacancies left by a lack of bowl-eligible teams to traditional conference powers playing on New Year's Day to a new representative in the College Football Playoff, it won't be hard to find the Big Ten this postseason.
Last year, the conference built momentum with a strong showing in the postseason, particularly in the more high-profile bowl games, and over the course of the next month, the league will have ample opportunity to do the same.
It remains to be seen whether the conference will be capable of replicating the same type of success that it found on the national stage last winter. But it's never too early to offer predictions for each Big Ten bowl game that's about to take place.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana vs. Duke
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In a showdown between two of highest-paced offenses in college football—Indiana ranks 12th in the nation with 81.2 plays per game, while Duke ranks 19th with 79.7—expect the points to come early and often when the Hoosiers and Blue Devils take the field at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 26.
That could make what the teams are capable of doing on the defensive side of the ball the key to the game, which could pose a problem for Indiana.
While Duke has matched its 40th-ranked offense with the nation's No. 49 defense, the Hoosiers have enjoyed significantly less balance across the board this season. Indiana's 16th-ranked offense has been somewhat neutralized by a defense that ranks 120th in the nation—the eighth-worst in college football in 2015.
The Blue Devils' stout run defense could also cause issues for the Hoosiers, who have relied heavily on star running back Jordan Howard throughout their run to a 6-6 season. If Duke can bottle up Howard, it could prove to be a longer day for the Indiana offense than it's typically used to.
Look for the Hoosiers to do their best to turn the Pinstripe Bowl into the shootout many expect it to be. But without a stronger-than-usual performance from its defense, Indiana doesn't stand much of a chance in the Big Apple.
Prediction: Duke 59, Indiana 38
Foster Farms Bowl: Nebraska vs. UCLA
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The good news for Nebraska is that it finds itself playing in a bowl game—and more importantly, receiving the bowl practices leading up to it—despite suffering a 5-7 season under first-year Cornhusker head coach Mike Riley.
The bad news is that it now finds itself severely overmatched against an 8-4 UCLA team that at one point was ranked as high as seventh in the country this season.
Behind true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, the Bruins have put together a balanced offensive attack, ranking 25th in the country in passing (285.8 yards per game) and 46th in rushing (186.8). Nebraska, meanwhile, lays claim to the nation's 71st-ranked defense, having surrendered an average of 401.3 yards per game.
Given the situation they find themselves in, merely keeping the game competitive could be seen as a moral victory for the Cornhuskers, who were selected to the Foster Farms Bowl based on their academic progress rate (APR) as a result of a lack of bowl-eligible teams in college football this season. That's just fine by Riley, who isn't going for his program's unique path to the postseason.
"With our circumstances this year, we certainly couldn't count on this," Riley said, per the Los Angeles Times' Zach Helfand. "But we're going to treat it like a tremendous bonus."
With the disparity between the two teams this season, don't count on it being much more than that if you're a Nebraska fan. Look for Rosen to have a big day, potentially launching a Heisman Trophy campaign for 2016 in the process.
Prediction: UCLA 45, Nebraska 16
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
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Like Nebraska, Minnesota finds itself in a bowl game this postseason based on the merits of its academic work and not its regular-season record (also 5-7).
But unlike the Cornhuskers, the Golden Gophers could actually win their bowl game as they prepare to face Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 28.
In fact, per Odds Shark, Las Vegas considers Minnesota a 5.5-point favorite over the Chippewas, who put together a 7-5 record this season playing in the Mid-American Conference. Despite possessing a losing record, the Golden Gophers have looked strong under head coach Tracy Claeys, who took over for Jerry Kill midway through the season.
With closer-than-expected calls against Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa all to its credit, Minnesota may actually be better than its record indicates. Look for the Golden Gophers to take full advantage of their bowl practices and come out strong against CMU, ultimately building some positive momentum heading into Claey's first full year as Minnesota's head coach in 2016.
Prediction: Minnesota 31, CMU 24
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TaxSlayer Bowl: Penn State vs. Georgia
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In one of four head-to-head matchups between the Big Ten and the SEC, Penn State will take on Georgia in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Jan. 2 in a game featuring two teams who could be considered underachievers in 2015.
The Nittany Lions put together a 7-5 campaign in their second season under head coach James Franklin, losing to Big Ten East foes Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State in the process. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, just fired head coach Mark Richt after a 9-3 season lowlighted by a season-ending injury to star running back Nick Chubb.
But although Georgia is currently in a period of transition and will have interim head coach Bryan McClendon calling the shots before new head coach Kirby Smart takes over the program, the Bulldogs' talent advantage should simply be too much for Penn State to overcome.
In what could very well be the final game of Christian Hackenberg's college career, Franklin may have one last chance to make the most of the junior quarterback's talents.
Through two seasons in State College, that's yet to be the case. And against a talented Georgia team that features the nation's eighth-ranked defense, there's no reason for it to start now.
Look for the Bulldogs to apply pressure to Hackenberg early and often in what will likely be a long day for the Nittany Lions.
Prediction: Georgia 49, Penn State 24
Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin vs. USC
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There may not have been a Big Ten team that flew under the radar more in 2015 than Wisconsin, which put together a sneakily impressive 9-3 record in its first season under head coach Paul Chryst. The Badgers' only losses came to ranked opponents Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern, and Wisconsin currently lays claim to the nation's third-ranked defense, surrendering an average of 267.1 yards per game.
After opening the season with a prime-time loss to the Crimson Tide, the Badgers will close their season with arguably the second most talented team they will face all season in USC. Despite enduring in-season turmoil with the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Trojans finished the season winning five of their final seven games, their lone losses in that stretch coming to ranked opponents in Oregon and Stanford.
"Having studied USC from afar, I certainly have a ton of respect for what they’ve done this year and know enough about their team to know it’s going to be a heck of a challenge," Chryst said, per Jason Galloway of the Wisconsin State Journal. "Our kids will be excited and looking forward to not just the bowl but the opportunity to play USC."
But while USC possesses plenty of playmaking ability, particularly with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, look for the Badgers defense to finally receive some of the credit it deserves. Count on this one to come down to the wire, with a running game that finally appears to be returning to Wisconsin form emerging to seal the deal for the Badgers.
Prediction: Wisconsin 28, USC 27
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
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Despite an impressive debut campaign for head coach Jim Harbaugh, Michigan ended its 2015 regular season with a sour taste in its mouth thanks to a 42-13 beatdown at the hands of rival Ohio State.
The Wolverines' most recent effort may have included a blowout loss to Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer, but the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl will give Michigan a chance to end Harbaugh's first season back in Ann Arbor on a high note against the Buckeyes head coach's former team.
In Florida, the Wolverines will find themselves facing a 10-3 team riding a two-game losing streak, including defeats to rivals of its own in Florida State and Alabama.
But while the Gators remained in playoff contention through the better part of the season, much of Florida's success this season came with quarterback Will Grier still eligible to play before a suspension for performance-enhancing drug use brought his season to a premature end.
And as evidenced by the Gators' SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama, the Florida passing game just isn't the same with quarterback Treon Harris (51.9 completion percentage) under center.
With Michigan possessing the nation's fourth-ranked defense, look for the Wolverines to pressure Harris into mistakes, much like the Crimson Tide did the last time the Gators were on the field.
Coming off an injury against Ohio State, quarterback Jake Rudock is a question mark for Michigan, but Harbaugh should have enough tricks up his sleeve left to mask any shortcomings from his senior signal-caller in what could be one of the bowl season's most competitive games.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Florida 17
Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs. Tennessee
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With a 10-2 record to its credit this season, Northwestern has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten in 2015.
Conversely, the Wildcats' Outback Bowl opponent, Tennessee, has been one of its league's biggest disappointments, with the Volunteers turning in an a 8-4 record in a year that many expected to be a breakthrough for head coach Butch Jones' program in the SEC.
But while Northwestern has turned in the results, Tennessee's style of play could prove to be problematic for the Wildcats on New Year's Day. The Volunteers lay claim to the nation's 50th-ranked offense (422.5 yards per game), averaging nearly 100 more yards per game than Northwestern's 114th-ranked offensive unit (332.6).
Having found the majority of their success this season methodically beating opponents in closely contested games, the Wildcats will now have to keep pace with a high-powered outfit headlined by running back Jalen Hurd (1,158 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns). It may be 10-2, but Northwestern's two defeats came by way of blowout, with Michigan (38-0) and Iowa (40-10) beating down the Wildcats in back-to-back weeks in October.
Unfortunately for Northwestern, its bowl game has all the makings of a third lopsided defeat being added to its resume.
Prediction: Tennessee 45, Northwestern 20
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: Iowa vs. Stanford
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Despite just missing out on making the College Football Playoff thanks to its loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, Iowa will head to Pasadena, California, for the Rose Bowl in what will be the Hawkeyes' first appearance in The Granddaddy of Them All since 1991.
Not a bad consolation prize for a team that entered 2015 as an afterthought in the Big Ten West.
"We still have some unfinished business," head coach Kirk Ferentz said. "Every game's important to win, this one would be great, great accomplishment. But we also know it's going to be a great, great challenge."
Facing a Stanford team that also just missed out on the four-team playoff, Iowa will have its work cut out for itself. The No. 6 Cardinal feature Heisman Trophy finalist Christian McCaffrey, who has posted a single-season record 3,496 yards of total offense to go along with 12 touchdowns in his sophomore season.
As the Hawkeyes proved in a Big Ten title game that saw the Spartans pull ahead with a game-winning touchdown in the final minute of action, this year's Iowa team can play with anyone in the country. But Stanford, from an offensive standpoint, is unlike anyone the Hawkeyes have faced, and the Cardinal defense could cause fits for Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard.
With two teams who each just missed out on making the playoff, there's no reason to believe this year's Rose Bowl will be anything short of an instant classic. But ultimately, count on McCaffrey making the difference as the best player on the field—and possibly in all of college football.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Iowa 33
BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
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In what's arguably the premier non-playoff bowl matchup this postseason, No. 7 Ohio State will take on No. 8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day in a game with plenty on the line for both teams. After the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish each saw their playoff hopes die in the final few weeks of the regular season, both are looking to prove they were two of the nation's best in 2015.
In its most recent outing, Ohio State looked much closer to that, finally living up to its expectations in a 42-13 blowout win over Michigan. It may not have been enough to help the Buckeyes crash the playoff, but for the first time this season, Ohio State finally looked like the defending national champion.
In what will likely be the last game for several key contributors before they head to the NFL, look for the Buckeyes to ride their momentum and end 2015 on a high note. Quarterback J.T. Barrett will be the key to the game and could become a Heisman front-runner for 2016 with a strong showing in the desert.
While redshirt freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer has been impressive for Notre Dame this season—"a big dude and a big guy, an excellent player,” Meyer said of the Fighting Irish signal-caller he recruited out of high school—he could quickly be overwhelmed by the Buckeyes' talented defensive line.
If Ohio State can force some turnovers early, this one could get out of hand in a hurry, with the Buckeyes living up to their potential for a second straight game.
Prediction: Ohio State 42, Notre Dame 17
Goodyear Cotton Bowl/College Football Playoff: Michigan State vs. Alabama
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After using a late-season win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title game victory over Iowa to propel itself into the College Football Playoff, Michigan State finds itself as one of four teams left with a chance to win the national championship.
Doing just that, however, will be easier said than done, with the third-ranked Spartans set to face No. 2 Alabama on New Year's Eve in a Cotton Bowl matchup that will double as a playoff semifinal.
Las Vegas doesn't like Michigan State's chances either, with the Spartans already listed as a double-digit underdog to the SEC Champion, per Odds Shark. That's a position Michigan State is plenty familiar with, as head coach Mark Dantonio has built his program on having a proverbial chip on its shoulder.
"We love that role. We embrace it, being an underdog," Spartans quarterback Connor Cook said. "I mean, it's kind of who we are as a program."
But against this Crimson Tide team, Michigan State has more than the point spread working against it.
With Heisman Trophy front-runner Derrick Henry leading the charge, Alabama possesses no shortage of talent on offense and a defense that ranks second in all of college football. Factor in that Cook was still dealing with a lingering shoulder injury in the Big Ten title game, and it's hard to imagine how the Spartans will be able to move the ball on a consistent basis against the Crimson Tide.
On the one hand, you can never count out Michigan State when it's in the exact position it finds itself in. But on the other, there's a reason many are expecting a double-digit Alabama win.
Look for the Spartans to keep it close until late but for Henry and the Crimson Tide defense to ultimately be too much to handle.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Michigan State 24
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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