Which Red-Hot College Basketball Stars Will Start to Cool Off?

With the meat of the early-season tournament schedule behind us, it's fair to say we have reached the end of the beginning.

So it's a good time to take stock. Where are performances relative to expectations? Which teams haven't hit their marks, and which have far exceeded? 

The same goes for individual players. Plenty of guys have yet to hit their stride, while others are the pace cars—out to an early lead but destined to fall back to the pack.

The final stretch of cupcake season provides one last stat-padding straightaway before the gauntlet of conference play begins in earnest in the new year. Who, once things get really serious, will fall back to the pack?

It's bound to happen. Here are our guesses for potential victims of the market correction. They are ranked based on performance relative to expectation, statistical analysis and strength of schedule.

For the record, no one's suggesting these aren't good players. The data just seems to suggest that they started out a little hotter than they'll end. Got it? That's very good. Let's get it on.

All statistics accurate as of Dec. 11 and courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

7. Isaiah Taylor, Texas

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Isaiah Taylor

In the scoring department, guard Isaiah Taylor is the leading Longhorn with 13.3 points per game.

Don't get used to it, Texas fans.

Despite the solid average, Taylor has already failed to surpass 10 points on four separate occasions. That includes a two-point effort in a win over the Samford Bulldogs and six points on 1-of-7 shooting against the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders.

The 39 percent field-goal percentage speaks to his inconsistency. But the nadir is his three-point shooting, which drifts along the bottom at a rate of 18 percent.

It's another bleak sign for the 5-3 Horns.

6. Laimonas Chatkevicius, South Carolina

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

The 6'11" senior forward Laimonas Chatkevicius is pouring in 13.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game for the South Carolina Gamecocks, and he's an important part of their early 8-0 start. 

There are two reasons why those numbers could soften: fouls and foul shots.

The 57 percent field-goal shooting number is impressive. Less impressive is Chatkevicius' 68-percent clip from the stripe. Ditto the 2.5 fouls he commits on average each game. 

As games tighten up and get more physical—and teams become more familiar with one another—those sore thumbs are going to start sticking out like, you know.

5. Eli Carter, Boston College

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston College Eagles' glue might come unglued.

Eli Carter is BC's do-it-all point guard, with team-high point (16.3) and assist (3.5) totals. But Carter's case is whatever the opposite of a silver lining is.

That's attributable to the fact that he is shooting more than 15 times per game for a field-goal percentage of less than 38 percent. That's not what you want. And it doesn't even hit 28 percent when he moves outside the arc.

It's the same issue with assists. Turnovers have been an issue throughout Carter's college career, and it's no different in his senior campaign, where he's notching 2.5 giveaways per contest for a 12.5 percent turnover rate, per College Basketball Reference.

4. Entire Duquesne Team

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Duquesne forward L.G. Gill (left)

Sports Illustrated saw the Duquesne Dukes finishing ninth in the A-10 Conference. So far, they're 7-2 and sitting in a tie for fourth. 

Kentucky they are not, but for a team that lost at home last season to the Saint Francis Red Flash and the New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders en route to a 12-19 record, it's a pretty clear step forward.

According to Steve DiMiceli of The Point of Pittsburgh website, experience is the key, along with the fact that the team's "approach seems simplified, as well, and the coaching staff seems to be putting players in roles they’re comfortable with."

Sounds good, as does Duquesne's 51 percent team shooting percentage from the floor, which is good for 13th in the nation, according to NCAA data. Seniors Derrick Colter and Micah Mason and junior L.G. Gill are the three-headed monster, combining for 45 points per contest.

Duquesne seems poised to improve on last season, but this relatively torrid start should cool off soon, particularly with tough outs like the Rhode Island Rams and George Washington Colonials on the horizon. Colter, Mason and Gill are impressive but account for more than half the team's points, on average. That doesn't feel sustainable.

3. Grayson Allen, Duke

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Grayson Allen (center)

At this time last year, it's not likely a lot of people had Grayson Allen pegged as the future floor leader of the Duke Blue Devils. That's probably because, at this time last year, Allen was logging fewer than five points in fewer than eight minutes per game for the eventual national champs.

What a difference a year makes.

The sophomore is a house of fire thus far, to the tune of a team-leading 22 points and 33 minutes per game. 

But every house of fire eventually burns out. Allen's usage rate—the percentage of team plays in which a player is involved—is a very high 26.4 percent, per College Basketball Reference. 

Can he keep that rate up? He's just a college sophomore, so, yeah, probably. But if he does, will his three-point shooting percentage remain at a scorching 46.2 percent? Nah.

The ace up Allen's sleeve is his penetration game; if defenders rightly respect his shooting range, they'll have to get up on him, and that will help him put it on the floor. But the less successful he is from distance, the less respect he'll get.

Once the minutes pile up and the almost-inhuman clip from beyond the arc comes back to Earth, a bit of a domino effect could take hold.

2. Jakob Poeltl, Utah

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Player efficiency rating (PER) is not a perfect stat, but it's a solid barometer of how well a player is playing.

Right now, Utah Utes big man Jakob Poeltl leads the entire nation in this area with a mind-bending 40.4 rating, according to College Basketball Reference. For comparison's sake, Anthony Davis led the nation in this category in his one year in Kentucky; he logged a 35.1 PER.

I mean, this just can't hold. It isn't possible.

The 7-footer has been some kind of impressive, but no one can keep this pace. A shooting percentage of 69 percent from the floor—buoyed by performances like his 10-of-12 shooting night against Temple, whose tallest starter is 6'9"—is not going to last.

Either that, or we have the next No. 1 draft pick.

1. Ronnie Johnson, Houston

It's amazing Ronnie Johnson stayed hot for that long.

The gifted Cougar—playing in his first season in Houston after transferring from Purdue—is a force to be reckoned with. But he's not a comic book hero, and the proverbial bill is now coming due.

Coming into last Tuesday's date with the Rhode Island Rams, Johnson was averaging 15.5 points per game. What's more, he was shooting an insane 63 percent from the field. That's almost impossible for a guard.

Even after his two-point, 1-of-7 shooting effort in a loss to the Rams, Johnson's effective field-goal percentage is still a crazy 61.2 percent with a 67 percent true shooting percentage, per College Basketball Reference.

It helps that Johnson is not only not a three-point shooter, but he recognizes that about himself. He's a slasher first and foremost.

That will keep the lightning-quick point guard's scoring numbers strong. But the air is coming out of these stratospheric stats. Johnson's a mortal after all.