Russell Athletic Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Baylor vs. North Carolina

Date: December 29

Time: 5:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Both the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Baylor Bears saw their regular seasons end with disappointment, as the Tar Heels lost to Clemson in the ACC title game while Baylor was upset by Texas. 

So both these teams will be out to exact revenge and salvage their season with a win in the Russell Athletic Bowl. 

The Tar Heels and Bears were both in the College Football Playoff conversation at one point in the season, so the Russell Athletic Bowl feels like a bit of relegation. 

Nevertheless, this bowl game features a terrific matchup that'll be perhaps the best non-New Year's Six bowl game. 

Tale of the Tape

These teams are both very similar on paper, which should make for an exciting showdown. 

Both the Bears and Tar Heels convert on red-zone opportunities at a high clip, have strong rushing attacks and score over 40 points per game.

How Baylor adjusts to all the injuries at quarterback, and who is healthy in few weeks, will make a big difference in this one. But for now, it's hard to separate these two squads.  

Keys to Victory for Baylor

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

1. Add more deception, emphasis to rushing attack

With the Bears potentially down to Lynx Hawthorne as their quarterback, Baylor must focus more on its rushing game led by running back Shock Linwood. Linwood has 1,329 yards on the ground this season and the Bears average 300.2 rushing yards per game, fourth best in the nation. But the Tar Heels know they'll have to run the ball more, so deceptive blocking schemes and the works will help keep Baylor's rushing attack strong. 

2. Get pressure on, contain Marquise Williams

UNC's gunslinger is one of the most athletic, accomplished quarterbacks of the season in college football, so Baylor will have to limit him first and foremost. With guys like defensive end Shawn Oakman, nose tackle Andrew Billings and a slew of talented linebackers, the Bears should have the capability to make Williams uncomfortable. The key will be to maintain gap responsibility along the line and ensure he doesn't have an avenue to escape.  

Keys to Victory for North Carolina

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

1. Make, keep Baylor one-dimensional

The Bears are so decimated at quarterback that whoever is reading this has a small chance at actually suiting up under center in a shiny gold helmet later this month. So the Bears are bound to lean heavily on Shock Linwood. The Tar Heels have to recognize this and not let Baylor dictate the flow of the game on the ground. Solid tackling and not getting fooled with any unique schemes up front will be huge for the Tar Heels defense. 

2. Spread the ball around offensively 

The Baylor defense has athletes in spots but also has holes. Oakman is a freak on the line and Xavien Howard is a terrific defensive back. But the Bears can't be everywhere at once. The Bears rank outside the top 50 in total defense, and the Tar Heels are loaded with athletes. Make sure they're spread around on the field and everybody gets a few touches to keep the Bears on their heels. 

Players to Watch for Baylor

Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press

Shawn Oakman

The sensational mystery of Shawn Oakman has been fantastical this season. Obviously, last year's famous Twitter meme means most people can recognize the mammoth defensive end. But people have questioned whether he's truly worth a top draft pick. This will be the last bit of game film for Oakman before the NFL combine and all the other offseason draft prospect activities, so his performance against the Tar Heels will be fresh on scouts' minds for a long time. 

Corey Coleman

There's no questioning that Coleman is one of the NCAA's best wide receivers. He currently ranks fourth in the FBS with 1,363 yards receiving and has also hauled in a whopping NCAA-best 20 touchdowns. He's the rock that anchors what has become a fractured passing attack for Baylor with all the injuries at quarterback, so expect whoever lines up under center for the Bears to look Coleman's way often. 

Players to Watch for North Carolina

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Elijah Hood

Everybody knows the weapons quarterback Marquise Williams possesses. But his partner in crime has been running back Elijah Hood, who has 1,345 yards on the ground. He's the ignitor for a team that averages 223 yards on the ground per game, the 22nd-best rushing attack in the nation. He also has 17 touchdowns and averages 6.5 yards per carry while going against a defense that'll do all it can just to contain Williams. 

M.J. Stewart

While this cornerback's season got off to a rocky start with a suspension, he has since become one of the best playmakers in the entire secondary of the ACC. Stewart has four interceptions this season, tied for fourth in the conference and also has a sack and a forced fumble. Expect him to make a big impact play against the Bears. 

What They're Saying

LM Otero/Associated Press

Baylor Athletic Director Ian McCaw, per Baylor's athletics website: 

"Many of our fans have expressed a strong desire for Baylor Football to play strong competition outside of the Big 12, so this will be a wonderful opportunity for Baylor Nation to travel to Orlando for this exciting matchup," McCaw said. "I'm extremely proud of Coach Briles, his staff and team for working through last-season injuries to reach a bowl game for a school-record sixth consecutive season."

UNC Head Coach Larry Fedora, per the Tar Heels' athletics website: 

“We’re looking forward to competing in the Russell Athletic Bowl and representing the University of North Carolina and the Atlantic Coast Conference,” says Fedora.  “This is a great opportunity for our players to continue the season and have a terrific experience in Orlando. Baylor is an outstanding program from the Big 12 that has an electrifying offense and should be a tremendous challenge for our team.”

Prediction

Rob Brown/Associated Press

These teams look similar on paper, and in a lot of ways they actually are. 

But this Baylor team isn't the same one from October and early November. Even though Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News reports that Jarrett Stidham may return, there's still so much uncertainty at quarterback for the Bears. 

Last Saturday's losses for both teams encapsulate where the two programs are at. The Bears are victims of frustration at a disappointing campaign, while the Tar Heels feel hosed by seeing their magical year end without the promise of a New Year's Six Bowl. 

Expect North Carolina to come into this game with a chip on its shoulder and a mission to accomplish. 

Score Prediction

UNC 38, Baylor 27