Rose Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for Stanford vs. Iowa
The "Granddaddy of Them All" will have a distinctly traditional feel to it. The January 1 bowl game will once again feature the Pac-12 champion while the Big Ten will also send a representative to Pasadena.
The Pac-12 champion Stanford Cardinal defeated USC to earn a berth in the Rose Bowl game, where they'll be joined by the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes.
The Cardinal stumbled out of the gate this season, losing their opener to Northwestern, but Stanford had just a single blemish on its conference résumé—a loss to divisional rival Oregon. The Cardinal locked up the North Division before knocking Notre Dame out of playoff contention in the final week of the regular season before the showdown with USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
The Cardinal defeated the Trojans for the second time this season, 41-22, to claim the conference title and earn a slot in the 2016 Rose Bowl Game.
Iowa will make its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1991. Despite losing—barely—to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Big Ten's West Division champions are still being rewarded with a trip to Pasadena.
Here's what you need to know:
Date: Friday, January 1, 2016
Time: 5 pm ET/ 2 pm PT
Place: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
Line: Stanford -6.5, according to OddsShark.com.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7If there's anything you take away from the above infographic, it's that Stanford has found more success on offense than Iowa. But don't believe that the Hawkeyes are the least bit daunted by the numbers the Cardinal put up.
One of the biggest keys to the 2016 Rose Bowl game will be defense. Will Stanford be able to find continued success against easily the best defense the Cardinal will face this season?
Keys to Victory for Stanford
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Get McCaffrey the Football
It really is that simple. When you have a guy that leads the nation in total yards, and even managed to break the lofty single-season total offense mark set by Barry Sanders, why wouldn't you find a way to get that guy the football?
Christian McCaffrey has been a nightmare for defenses all season long, and he only seems to be getting better as the games pass by. If Stanford is going to be successful, the Cardinal must have McCaffrey play a major role.
Solve the Iowa Defense
The Hawkeyes are a good old-fashioned Big Ten team that loves to play big boy football up front. The run defense is the 10th best in the FBS, giving up fewer than 115 yards on the ground per game.
If Stanford is going to win this game, it can't be one-dimensional by throwing exclusively. The Cardinal have one of the most dynamic offensive players at their disposal in Christian McCaffrey, and he'll need to play a major role. But in order for him to be successful, head coach David Shaw and his staff will need to find some innovative schemes to solve one of the nation's best defenses.
Will Shaw use the pass to set up the run? Or will the Cardinal pound the ball at Iowa to try to open up some passing lanes downfield? We'll find out on New Year's Day.
Keys to Victory for Iowa
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Play Iowa Football
We've seen Big Ten vs. Pac-12 football forever. But as hard as it is to believe, the disparity in styles may have become even wider over the past several years. And with a few exceptions, there's no more Pac-12-like team than Stanford and no more Big Ten-ish team than Iowa.
The Big Ten loves its brand of football: tough, hard-nosed, punch-you-in-the-teeth football. Stanford hasn't faced much of that lately, and its one Big Ten opponent this season—Northwestern—beat the Cardinal (back in Week 1).
So if Iowa wants to have success against the Cardinal, it will be imperative to be as different from Stanford's usual opponents as possible. For the Hawkeyes, that simply means be the Hawkeyes.
Figure our McCaffrey
When you're facing a guy who has put up more total offense than the great Barry Sanders, it's no secret that stopping him is going to be key to any chance of success. Such is the case with Iowa lining up against Christian McCaffrey.
There wasn't a single Pac-12 team that held McCaffrey to fewer than 100 rushing yards this season, but there wasn't a non-Pac-12 team against which McCaffrey had 100 rushing yards, either (94 against Notre Dame, 58 against UCF and 66 against Northwestern).
Clearly, limiting McCaffrey's ground production will be key. The good news: Iowa is great at stopping the run.
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Players to Watch from Iowa
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Christian McCaffrey
In 13 games this season, McCaffrey has piled up 1,847 yards (second in the FBS) and eight touchdowns on the ground. That's impressive enough, but when you add in 540 receiving yards and four more touchdowns through the air, you start to get a more complete picture of his greatness.
McCaffrey has also added two passing touchdowns to his tally this season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game against USC—a game in which McCaffrey amassed 461 yards in total offense, breaking Barry Sanders' record for total offense in a single season.
While Stanford has playmakers spread around the field, there's no other player as indispensable as McCaffrey. There isn't anything he can't do on offense, and there's very little that opposing defenses have proved they can do to stop him.
Kevin Hogan
If McCaffrey is the muscle of the Cardinal offense, Hogan is the brains behind the operation.
Hogan has 2,644 yards and a whopping 24 touchdowns in the passing game this season, and while the numbers aren't burning up the stat sheet (Hogan is just 10th in the Pac-12 this season in passing yards per game), he's methodical efficiency, completing 68.6 percent of his passes while tossing just seven picks this season, has been key to Stanford's success.
Any defense must be fundamentally sound in order to have any shot at derailing the Cardinal offense, and even then, Hogan is accurate enough to find just enough space to fit in a football—and more often than not, win games.
Players to Watch from Stanford
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C.J. Beathard
When Jake Rudock transferred to Michigan after last season, the question became who could possibly fill his shoes under center for Iowa. Enter C.J. Beathard.
In perhaps the most critical quarterback decision of the season, head coach Kirk Ferentz went with Beathard, who promptly led the Hawkeyes to its first-ever 12-0 start, an undefeated West Division title and a chance to play into the College Football Playoff.
Iowa may have come up about 25 seconds and half a yard short of a Big Ten title and playoff berth, but Iowa is still in the hunt for its first Rose Bowl title since 1959 in its first trip to the "Granddaddy" since 1991.
And if Iowa is going to come out on top against the Cardinal, Beathard is going to need another huge game.
Jordan Canzeri
Early is the season, Jordan Canzeri was averaging nearly 116 yards per game through six weeks. But an injury put a damper on his high output, and another injury caused him to leave the Big Ten Championship Game early.
Canzeri has 976 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and averages nearly 5.5 yards per carry. So what are we watching for with Canzeri's Rose Bowl apperance? Well first off, we're going to watch whether Canzeri even makes a Rose Bowl appearance.
If he does, the question then becomes whether he can return to pre-injury form, giving the Cardinal defense fits.
What They're Saying
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Everyone who is paying attention to college football this season knows about Christian McCaffrey. But just how good is he? Well, if you ask his head coach, David Shaw, he's the absolute best. After the Pac-12 Championship Game, Shaw was full of praise to reporters.
"Best player in the nation. Nobody’s doing what he’s doing. It’s not even a debate. And he’s still walkin’ on his toes. He could play another quarter."
Like Pac-12 programs, earning a slot in the Rose Bowl game is never seen as a bad thing. Sure, Iowa would like to be in the College Football Playoff, but the Hawkeyes were ready for any destination. Linebacker Cole Fisher made that point clear to reporters after losing to Michigan State.
"Whatever game we get, we’re going to treat it like it’s the national championship. Wherever they put us, we’ll be okay with it."
It's not hard to treat the Rose Bowl game like the national championship, and after learning that the Hawkeyes will be heading to Pasadena, California, for the first time in 25 years, we're confident that Fisher and the rest of his teammates are very "okay with it."
Prediction
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If you're looking for a great Pac-12/Big Ten showdown, this is right up your alley. We have a Pac-12 champion with an exciting offense facing off against a Big Ten team with a smash-mouth defense. Is there any better way to spend New Year's Day than watching this kind of Rose Bowl game?
This game will, as so many do, boil down to which team can win the battles up front. So much of Stanford's offensive success depends on the protection allowed Hogan and McCaffrey as they seek to chew up yards. While the Cardinal have played some great opponents this season, Iowa presents their toughest test yet.
While Christian McCaffrey will get more than his fair share of touches in this game, he'll find the Iowa defense much more stout than that of USC or Notre Dame.
Iowa doesn't score a ton of points, but the Hawkeyes don't allow a ton, either. Iowa ranks 15th in the FBS in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 points per game. Will the Cardinal be able to score enough points to outdistance Iowa's middling point production (32.1 points per game, 49th in the FBS)?
We don't think so.
Prediction: Iowa 23, Stanford 17
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