Sugar Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State
In a clash of runner-ups from two of college football's toughest conferences, No. 12 Ole Miss returns to the New Year's Six Bowl line-up to battle No. 16 Oklahoma State. Following last season's embarrassing 42-3 Peach Bowl loss to Big 12 front-runner TCU, the Rebels look for revenge on one of the sport's biggest stages.
Leading the opposition, head coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys surge back into the national spotlight hoping to make amends for late losses to close the season. After a brilliant start behind 10 straight victories, a sputtering offense failed to produce results against the Baylor Bears and rival Oklahoma Sooners. However, a month of preparation will serve as an opportunity for quarterback Mason Rudolph and company to get back on track.
Meanwhile, quarterback Chad Kelly and Ole Miss have been a story of on-again-off-again, as impressive wins over Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU have been offset equally confusing losses to Memphis and Arkansas. The "Landshark" defense—a staple for the Rebels the past two years—has similarly suffered, playing fast and loose at times versus slow and uptight others.
Under the lights of New Orleans' Superdome on New Year's Day, the Sugar Bowl will play host to these two southern upstarts fighting for postseason respect.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7As the B/R Insights graphic suggests, the difference-maker for both these squads will be the offensive production, particularly within the passing game. The high red zone conversion rate for Oklahoma State stands out, as does the large turnover margin.
The rushing attacks for both squads should play a minor role during the game, as the defensive lines for both teams should pin their ears back and rush the passer in earnest.
If anything is for certain, this matchup should end with a shootout.
Keys to Victory for Ole Miss
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1) The Ole Miss offense is powered primarily by a single concept: spread the field. Considering the ridiculous amount of athletes the Rebels boast at receiver, highlighted by Laquon Treadwell and Quincy Adeboyejo, quarterback Chad Kelly's only job is to get the ball to those players in space. Once there, the athletes take care of the rest, and more often than not are sending their signal-caller postcards from the end zone.
2) Head coach Hugh Freeze has watched his defense play up and down to its competition all season, suffering the consequences on few occasions. As long as the Rebels identify as the "Landshark" squad, though, Freeze needs to have his defensive unit working on all cylinders against a pass-happy Oklahoma State offense. Sure, Ole Miss has seen the air raid before, but the Cowboys have a knack for utilizing a multitude of confusing formations and mixing it up against tough defenses.
3) Perhaps this seems slightly obvious, but Ole Miss is most successful as a team when it starts fast and, in particular, gains an early lead. The defense is free to act more aggressive while any pressure is removed from the offense to score, which has allowed a wider range of play-calling in past games.
Keys to Victory for Oklahoma State
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1) As Oklahoma State is soon to learn, the only defense it has faced this season that comes close to the Ole Miss "Landshark" unit is an Oklahoma squad that recently contained the Cowboys to 23 points in the blowout loss. In order to reverse its fortune, though, OSU must establish an early presence on the offensive front. A struggling Mason Rudolph could spell disaster for the Cowboys, and failure to utilize all of its perimeter weapons will have Oklahoma State reeling from the get-go.
2) Defensively, the sole objective for the Cowboys should be pursuit. The Rebels are generally more athletic than their opponents, and that mainly occurs due to underestimating speed and capability. Oklahoma State understands how to play in shootouts, but allowing Ole Miss to settle into an offensive rhythm is dangerous, especially if Chad Kelly is picking apart the deep secondary.
3) Catching the Rebels early is the best, and easiest way, to knock them off guard. During last season's bumble against TCU, the Horned Frogs jumped out quickly and beat Ole Miss into submission. If Oklahoma State has a chance to take home the win, a rapid lead accompanied by deadly body blows is the best way to achieve that end.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Ole Miss
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1) QB Chad Kelly - The young signal-caller found the national spotlight early this season behind his magnificent performance against Alabama, and has shown moxie since with big wins over LSU and Mississippi State. Outpacing the beloved Bo Wallace and Eli Manning in multiple records, Kelly racked up 3,740 passing yards with 37 total touchdowns and just 12 interceptions on the season.
2) DB Trae Elston - As the team's second leading tackler with 66 total on the season, Elston has established himself as a force to be reckoned with from his position in the secondary. However, it's the defensive back's team-best four interceptions for two scores that truly sets him apart as a playmaker.
3) WR Laquon Treadwell - Not much to be said about the NFL-level talent that is Laquon Treadwell, except respect his ability. The young receiver quickly became a deadly weapon under Bo Wallace's reign last year, but has only improved with Chad Kelly under center, snaring a team-high 76 receptions for 1,082 yards and eight scores.
Players to Watch for Oklahoma State
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1) QB Mason Rudolph - Statistically, quarterback Mason Rudolph has been phenomenal this season, sealing victory after victory for the Cowboys through the first 10 matchups. On the year, Rudolph has accumulated 3,591 passing yards for 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, completing just over 62 percent of his passes.
2) DB Jordan Sterns - The junior defensive back has been unstoppable for Oklahoma State this year, leading the team in tackles with an impressive 103 total (68 solo). Further, he has added two interceptions and served as a leader within the secondary and the squad in general.
3) James Washington - Despite sitting a reception short of leading the Cowboys in receptions, the sophomore receiver has done more than his fair share for the air raid offense. Washington's 52 catches have been transformed into a OSU best 1077 yards and 10 scores, making him Rudolph's most efficient (and certainly most decisive) target.
What They're Saying
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Following the announcement, Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze expressed his sincere pride regarding his program's return to the New Year's Six Bowl line-up, per 247Sports.com.
""I’m proud of our program for being one of the few to make it back to a ‘New Year’s Six’ bowl,” Freeze said. “My childhood was spent hearing Rebel fans talk about Archie leading us to a Sugar Bowl win, and I’m thrilled for our players, coaches and fans to return to New Orleans and represent the Southeastern Conference. Oklahoma State is an outstanding team and we have a great challenge in front of us, but I know Rebel Nation will come in force and provide us tremendous support as they have in every bowl game.”
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On top of that, the Rebels will be traveling to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl for the first time in 46 years, while Oklahoma State visits the game for the first time since 1945, per Cecil Hurt of TuscaloosaNews.com.
"First Rose Bowl for Iowa in 25 years. First Sugar Bowl for Ole Miss in 46 years. Congrats to both & thanks for being cool, college football
— Cecil Hurt (@CecilHurt) December 6, 2015"
Prediction
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Ole Miss 45, Oklahoma State 42
A shootout for the ages, both offenses will find their rhythm early in this matchup. The Cowboys may be coming off two consecutive losses, but just under a month of preparation and the coaching talents of Mike Gundy will have this group ready from the get-go against a tough Rebel squad.
However, when it comes down to all the marbles, head coach Hugh Freeze and his quarterback prodigy Chad Kelly have both the weapons and experience to navigate the deadly back-and-forth of a scoring battle. Both Laquon Treadwell and James Washington will shine, and defensive egos will be shattered, but expect the Rebels to emerge as victors on New Year's Day.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
