Alabama vs. Florida: Preview and Predictions for SEC Championship 2015

Sports fans will argue over anything, but apparently not the 2015 SEC Championship Game.

The next person to pick a Florida upset over Alabama will be the first. According to Odds Shark, the No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide are favored by 18 points, and a majority of bettors are still choosing them to cover. 

In a poll of five ESPN.com writers, all of them predicted Alabama to triumph by double digits. Greg Ostendorf, who gave the Gators the most credit with a 24-14 score projection, began his blurb by conceding, "I think we all agree that Alabama is going to win this Saturday."

While Alabama, winners of nine straight, boasts a 19.7-point average margin of victory, Florida's offense has stumbled without quarterback Will Grier. As a result, the SEC powerhouse is expected to claim its second straight conference crown.

Will Alabama and Florida's eighth SEC title meeting go according to plan? Here's a full preview of Saturday's SEC Championship Game.

SEC Championship Game: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 18 Florida

Date: Saturday, December 5

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Place: Georgia Dome, Atlanta

TV: CBS 

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Preview

Since Grier's suspension for violating the NCAA's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the Gators have scored 18.3 points per game, culminating in last Saturday's 27-2 loss to Florida State. Taking his spot under center, sophomore Treon Harris has completed just 50.9 percent of his passes, averaging 182.7 passing yards per start.

Even while complimenting Harris, Alabama head coach Nick Saban showed he isn't losing sleep worrying about the replacement quarterback, per Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee:

He's not helping his cause of avoiding the perennial trap game. Per Ostendorf, he tried his darnedest to get someone challenging his team's status as the clear favorite:

"

I hear everybody talking about this game and how we’re supposed to win this game, as if Florida doesn’t have a good team that won 10 games and is one of the nationally ranked teams and beat Ole Miss really bad—a team that beat us. How did they do that? So if we fail in this game, you can put the hammer on me. It’s a setup. I get it. I hope our players get it.

"

Florida salvaged a 10-2 record without its freshman quarterback, but the squad lost both of its games against ranked opponents without Grier. After amassing 262 total yards against FSU, the Gators now combat an even tougher opponent. Among all FBS schools, Alabama ranks No. 2 in total defense and No. 3 in points allowed.

Alabama's opponents have mustered an FBS-low 78.9 rushing yards per game on a microscopic 2.5 yards per carry. Florida will struggle to find the end zone at all, meaning the nation's No. 6 defense must enjoy a huge afternoon to cap off a stunner.

That could be a problem. So far, nobody has stymied running back Derrick Henry with much success. The Heisman hopeful has scored in all 12 games this season, compiling 1,797 yards on 295 handoffs. 

Anyone building a case for the Gators should point to Henry's absurd workload last weekend, when he rattled off 46 carries in a 29-13 victory against Auburn. According to Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh, Saban lamented his over-reliance on the star rusher.

"It was not our intention to have Derrick Henry carry the ball 46 times in the game and 14 times in a row at the end," Saban said. "It's kind of the way the game evolved. We need to do more with more people on offense if we're going to have success in this game.”

Quarterback Jacob Coker is averaging a tame 7.3 yards per pass attempt with a 2.6 interception percentage, but the senior has matured into a trustworthy passer. Alabama Media Group's Matt Zenitz noted his accuracy after a slow start:

After throwing six interceptions in his first six games, he has only surrendered two during the latter half of the season. Armed with a dominant ground game and defense, Saban simply needs his quarterback to protect the football and occasionally move the sticks. Florida's fierce pass rush, meanwhile, must coerce some mistakes to level the playing field.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Florida 10

Eric Gay/Associated Press

It'd be fun to pick Florida over the established mainstay. Yet that would be crazier than choosing a pink Starburst over a red one. 

"Crazier things have happened" is the most reasonable rationale for siding with the Gators over the Crimson Tide, who bring a world-beating running back and defense into a showdown they must win to remain in the College Football Playoff. Even if Coker chokes and offers no distinguishable advantage over Harris, Saban can still lean on Henry.

Florida would still enter as an underdog with Grier, but his absence strips away any intrigue. A stumbling offense will run into a brick wall while Alabama musters enough offense to take home its second straight SEC crown.