Burning Questions in College Basketball Early in the 2015-16 Season

Just a few weeks of the college basketball season are in the books, and already the results are prompting questions.

Michigan State has jumped from its preseason No. 13 ranking to No. 1, but can the Spartans stay there?  What should we make of the fact that one of the two highly-touted freshmen has had an outstanding start, while the other has struggled?  New issues seem to arise each week.

We note 10 burning questions that have cropped up early in the college basketball season.

With Marcus Paige Back, Is North Carolina the Team to Beat Again?

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In the two games North Carolina guard Marcus Paige has played this season, the Tar Heels beat then-No. 2 Maryland by eight points and won by 33 points against a Davidson team that was 5-0.

Suddenly, North Carolina seems invincible.

North Carolina was the preseason No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll, and with Paige, a preseason ACC co-player of the year, now back after missing the first six games with a broken right hand, the Tar Heels resemble that preseason projection. They are back up to No. 3 in the AP rankings and even got two first-place votes despite the loss to Northern Iowa when Paige was sidelined.

It's easy to see why the return of Paige is seen as such a boon. In his two games, Paige has totaled 33 points while hitting 6-of-10 three-pointers with nine assists and two turnovers in two impressive wins.

But are the Tar Heels so loaded now that they are the prohibitive favorites to win the national championship? Does every other team, including No. 1 Michigan State, have to hope that North Carolina has an off night to have any chance against the Tar Heels?

Those questions remain unanswered for a couple of reasons.

First of all, the past two games were played at the Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., and every team plays a lot better at home.

More significant is the fact that North Carolina was a ready-made team when the season began. The Tar Heels lost only one starter from last season's team, and they began the season with an identity, a familiarity with each others' roles and skills and a lot of college-level experience. They should begin the season playing well once the team was intact. It's much like the Golden State Warriors, who started this season with the same players and approach they used to finish last season, while other teams have made changes.

College teams that are playing with new lineups and freshman contributors are still putting the pieces together. Teams such as Duke and Kentucky figure to get better as the season progresses, and each has enough talent to give the Tar Heels problems if it develops the needed cohesion.

Michigan State has used just two players who were starters at the end of last season, and forward Gavin Schilling has yet to play because of a toe injury. No. 2 Kansas is still working in a freshman, Cheick Diallo, who could have a significant impact down the road. Those two teams could be better by the end of the season, too. And who knows what other teams might suddenly find the magic and start playing outstanding basketball?

For the moment, North Carolina looks like a dynamo. Whether it can continue to improve and still look unconquerable at tournament time is the question.

Will Kentucky Freshman Skal Labissiere Begin to Live Up to the Hype?

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Kentucky freshman Skal Labissiere is a skilled 6'11" player who is a starter and the fourth-leading scorer on the No. 5 team in the country. That sounds like a successful first-year college player.

However, far more was expected of Labissiere. Both Scout.com and Rivals.com ranked him as the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2015, ahead of LSU freshman Ben Simmons. ESPN.com's Chad Ford projects Labissiere to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft.

He is averaging 12.0 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. Those are decent numbers, but two other freshmen on the team, Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe, are averaging more points, more rebounds and, significantly, more playing time than Labissiere. He simply has not been the dominant force the recruiting sites expected.

It should be noted that few Kentucky players rack up impressive statistics under John Calipari, including the big men. Karl-Anthony Towns (10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds), Julius Randle (15.0 points, 10.4 rebounds), Nerlens Noel (10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds) and Anthony Davis (14.2 points, 10.4 rebounds) all had rather pedestrian scoring numbers, but all four were among the top seven players taken in the NBA draft.

The bigger issue is that Labissiere was barely noticeable against the best opponents Kentucky has faced. In the victory over Duke, he had seven points and four rebounds and fouled out. In the Wildcats' most recent game, a loss to UCLA, he had six points, one rebound and four fouls in 16 minutes of playing time. In the game immediately before the UCLA loss, Kentucky had a tougher time than expected against Southern Illinois, a contest that was tied at halftime. Labissiere had two points and one rebound in 16 minutes in that game.

In his last two games, as of Dec. 8, Labissiere has totaled eight points, three rebounds, seven fouls and 32 minutes of court time.

Clearly, he has not been the top freshman in the country this season and has not even been the top freshman on his own team. Labissiere's numbers are dwarfed by those of LSU's Simmons.

But Garry Parrish of CBS Sports reminds us that Kansas' Andrew Wiggins and Towns had disappointing starts to their freshman seasons and ended up as the No. 1 overall picks in the past two NBA drafts.

Labissiere is still skilled and athletic, especially for a 6'11" player. It often takes big men longer to develop, and they progress at different rates. Randle and Davis were stars from Day One, but Towns averaged just 6.4 points through his first five college games last season.

It's simply too early to declare that Labissiere is not strong enough or tough enough to be a star. Calipari said, per ESPN.com's Eamonn Brennan, after the UCLA loss that he believes Labissiere will be fine eventually, saying the freshman had "no options" but to toughen up soon.

In three months' time we will have a much better idea of Labissiere's status as a college player and his potential as a pro player. We are betting his numbers and his visibility in important games improve significantly over the next 10 to 12 weeks. 

Can Wichita State Recover Now That VanVleet Is Back?

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Point guard Fred VanVleet returned after missing four games with a hamstring injury, and Wichita State responded with a convincing 68-53 victory over St. Louis on the Billikens' home court, ending a three-game losing streak.

Does that mean the Shockers' troubles are over and that they will inch their way back up the rankings? Maybe, maybe not.

Certainly VanVleet's return made the Shockers a better team. You can't lose a point guard who was the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year in 2014 and not expect it to have a noticeable effect. But Wichita State was ranked No. 10 in the country in the preseason Associated Press poll, primarily because it had two stars, VanVleet and Ron Baker, who combined to carry the Shockers to successful seasons the past two years. Losing one player, no matter how significant, should not cause a team with Final Four aspirations to crumble the way the Shockers did when VanVleet was sidelined.

Wichita State lost to three unranked teams in VanVleet's absence, and the 23-point loss to unranked Iowa on a neutral court in Florida was particularly troublesome. Furthermore, before VanVleet was sidelined, he played 30 minutes in the second game of the season, when the Shockers lost to Tulsa, which is a mediocre 5-3 at the moment.

Baker was rated the eighth-best player in the country by ESPN.com, several spots ahead of VanVleet, and Baker is averaging 17.4 points and shooting 39.6 percent on three-pointers, both of which are better than his numbers in any of his previous three seasons. However, Baker's presence was not enough to prevent the Shockers from falling to their current 3-4 record.

Then it all seemed to fall in place again against St. Louis with a healthy VanVleet running the show.

“Having a healthy Fred VanVleet makes quite a difference,” said Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall (pictured above), according to the Kansas City Star. “There’s a sense of relief when you see him out there. He just spoon-feeds some of these guys.”

The Billikens are not a great team this season, having lost to Morehead State by 14 points three days before facing Wichita State. Besides, VanVleet only played 18 minutes against St. Louis, and the Shockers made significant inroads in that game when VanVleet was on the bench.

It remains unclear whether Wichita State is a national power again now that VanVleet is back.

Which Low-Exposure Team Can Sneak Up the Rankings?

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Last season it was Northern Iowa that came virtually from nowhere, starting the season unranked and relatively unknown outside the Missouri Valley Conference before climbing to No. 10 in the Associated Press rankings and finishing the regular season at No. 11.

In 2008, Butler of the Horizon League rose from being unranked in the preseason to No. 11 in the final regular-season AP poll, setting the stage for the Bulldogs' back-to-back national runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011.

We are not talking about Cinderellas, the teams that pull off a major postseason upset then fade back into oblivion. This is about teams hidden away in less prestigious conferences that find their way into the Top 25 while no one is paying attention.

Can any team fill that role this year? 

George Washington of the Atlantic 10 was not among the 52 teams that received votes in the Associated Press preseason poll, but the Colonials knocked off then-No. 6 Virginia and are 7-1, losing only to nationally ranked Cincinnati by five points on a neutral court. George Washington is still unranked, perhaps because it does not have the national reputation other schools do. 

George Washington has not been ranked since the 2005-06 season, when it rose to No. 6 on March 7. No team in the Atlantic 10 is ranked at the moment, as that conference has lost some prestige and exposure with realignments.

St. Mary's of the West Coast Conference is unbeaten and still unranked, but the Gaels have tasted the Top 25 recently, getting ranked in 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2011-12, rising to No. 16 four seasons ago. Besides, St. Mary's has not yet done anything to get excited about.

The best hope for a surprising rise may be Evansville. Like Wichita State and Northern Iowa, Evansville plays in the Missouri Valley Conference. But unlike those two, Evansville has never been ranked in the AP poll. The Purple Aces did not even receive any votes in this week's poll, but keep an eye on them.

The Purple Aces were picked to finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference, behind only Wichita State, and they had two players on the preseason all-conference team: D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius. Evansville has not beaten anyone of importance so far, but its only loss was to Providence, which is currently ranked No. 15. If Evansville can hold its own in Tuesday night's game at Arkansas, it would suggest the Purple Aces have something worth monitoring.

Will Freshman Ben Simmons Continue His Amazing Stat Lines?

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LSU, ranked No. 21 in the preseason Associated Press poll, is not matching expectations with its 4-3 record, but it cannot blame its problems on freshman forward Ben Simmons, who is putting up amazing numbers.

He certainly can score, averaging 19.9 points on 53.8 percent shooting and pouring in 43 points in an overtime win over North Florida. However, it is the versatility of the 6'10" Australian that makes him different. Simmons leads his team in assists (6.0 per game), steals (2.4) and blocks (1.6), and his 14.9 rebounds per game lead the nation by more than one rebound per contest.

Simmons was limited to four points in the overtime loss to North Carolina State, but he had 14 rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and three blocks in that game.

That all-around talent is why he prematurely is being called the next LeBron, and LeBron James said, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin, that he doesn't mind the comparison. James noted that he has been watching Simmons for years and calls him "an unbelievable talent."

Perhaps a better comparison for Simmons would be Kevin Durant during his freshman year at Texas.

Built much like Simmons, the slender 6'11" Durant averaged 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds in his only college season. Durant was a better outside shooter than Simmons, who is a better passer. Durant maintained his numbers through a tough Big 12 season, and the question is whether Simmons can do the same when Southeastern Conference opponents start game-planning for him.

How Good Is UCLA?

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Do you remember those talent-laden UCLA teams coached by Jim Harrick and Steve Lavin that would beat a nationally ranked team one night then lose to a nobody the next? The inconsistency of those teams made it impossible to predict which UCLA team would show up in a given game.

This season's Bruins are starting to have that perplexing vibe. 

UCLA began its season by losing at home to Monmouth, a Metro-Atlantic Athletic Conference team. The Bruins then nearly lost at home to Cal Poly, which held a lead with less than six minutes left.  When UCLA floundered in Maui, getting crushed by Kansas and losing to Wake Forest to drop to 3-3, it looked like it would be a long season for Steve Alford's club.

Then, on December 3, UCLA faced No. 1 Kentucky, and suddenly the Bruins resembled the UCLA teams of the dynasty years.

Perhaps buoyed by an unusually loud and large Pauley Pavilion crowd, the Bruins controlled the game from start to finish. Thomas Welsh, UCLA's 7'0" sophomore center, became the master of the pick-and-pop, collecting 21 points, mostly on nifty shots from the elbow, to go along with 11 rebounds. The Bruins shot 52.8 percent compared to 37.9 percent for the Wildcats.

"I want everybody to understand: I got outcoached, we got outplayed," Kentucky's John Calipari said afterward, per Brennan. "Their execution, their hustle, their toughness, there was not one area that they didn’t beat us in.”

Was this outcome a fluke, a one-time emotional response to Kentucky's rout of UCLA last season? Or was it an indication that the Bruins in general and Welsh in particular have suddenly put the pieces together and will knock off foes left and right when Pac-12 play begins?

Saturday's road game against Gonzaga may start to answer those questions.

Will a Number of Teams Average More Than 80 Points?

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The introduction of a 30-second shot clock as well as several new points of officiating emphasis were meant to promote scoring in college basketball, which has seen a steady decline in points in recent years.

Last season, only five Division I teams averaged more than 80 points per game, and none scored more than 85 per contest. Last season, Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington won the Division I scoring title by averaging 23.1 points, the lowest average by a scoring champion since Yale's Tony Lavelli averaged 22.4 points in 1948-49, according to page 40 of the NCAA record book.

Teams are scoring more points this season, with a whopping 77 Division I schools averaging 80 points or better and seven scoring more than 90 points per game, in games through December 7, according to the NCAA statistics. Seven players are averaging more than 24 points a game.

Is this a trend toward more scoring? Typically scoring goes down over the course of a season, as the number of competitive mismatches dwindles and the defensive intensity and game-planning of conference play takes hold.

You wonder whether strong teams such as Butler, which is averaging 91.4 points, or Kansas, which is scoring 90.9 per game, can keep up that pace, or perhaps even increase it as they settle into a rhythm. 

Who Is the Best Player in the Country?

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The Associated Press preseason All-American team indicated that Kyle Wiltjer of Gonzaga, Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, Georges Niang of Iowa State, Kris Dunn of Providence and freshman Ben Simmons of LSU would be the ones to watch in terms of national player of the year honors.

None of them has done anything to remove his name from the list of those claiming to be the nation's top player. Nunn's ability to get Providence to its current No. 15 ranking after the Friars were unranked in preseason certainly bodes well for his candidacy, and Wiltjer, Niang and Hield also have their teams in the Top 25. The amazing numbers Simmons is putting up as a first-year collegian cannot be ignored even though the Tigers fell out of the rankings.

The one name that has been added to the list, and the player who might win player of the year if voting were held today, is Michigan State senior guard Denzel Valentine.  He leads his team in scoring (19.7 points per game), rebounding (8.8) and assists (7.9) while hitting 40.3 percent of his three-point shots. He has been the driving force in the Spartans' rise from their No. 13 spot in the Associated Press preseason poll to their current No. 1 position.

Valentine has already had two triple-doubles, including his 29-point, 12-rebound, 12-assist game in the victory over Kansas. 

Is he the nation's best player?

A lot can happen over the next four months to change the way players are viewed. You may recall that LSU running back Leonard Fournette seemed like a slam dunk to win the Heisman Trophy midway through the college football season but ultimately was not even among the three finalists.

North Carolina guard Marcus Paige may have pushed his name into the player-of-the-year conversation with the impact he has made in the only two games he has played this season.  For now, we merely have a preliminary cast of contenders.

Can Any Team Go Through the Regular Season Unbeaten?

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Before Wichita State's impressive regular-season run in 2013-2014, no team had entered the NCAA tournament unbeaten since UNLV did it in 1990-91. But after the Shockers entered the postseason without a loss two years ago, Kentucky did it last season. Is it possible that some team could make it three seasons in a row?

It is noteworthy that none of the three teams mentioned above won a national championship, but that does not diminish the accomplishment of going through an entire regular season, including a conference tournament, without a loss.

As of December 7, 12 teams remain unbeaten, and none has looked as dominant as Kentucky was last season. No. 1 Michigan State and No. 11 Purdue will be hard-pressed to go through Big Ten play unbeaten, and Iowa State, Oklahoma and West Virginia in the Big 12 and Xavier in the Big East face similar conference challenges.

South Carolina is unlikely to stay unbeaten much longer, and St. Mary's, North Carolina-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock don't seem to have the talent to avoid a loss for the next three months.

Interestingly, the team with the best chance to finish the regular season unbeaten might be a team that is ineligible for postseason play: SMU.

The Mustangs are a long shot to go unbeaten themselves, but the competition they face in the American Athletic Conference is not as challenging as what most other ranked teams encounter.  It's easy to spot four or five games SMU could lose, but most of its difficult early conference games are at home, as is a February 13 game against Gonzaga. By then Larry Brown will be back on the Mustangs bench.

Perhaps the Mustangs or some other team will stay unbeaten long enough to raise the question of whether a team can finish the regular season without a loss for a third consecutive season.

Which Team Will Be the Biggest Surprise?

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Notre Dame was probably the surprise team of last season. The Irish were unranked in both the Associated Press and USA Today coaches preseason polls a year ago and were picked to finish seventh in the Atlantic Coast Conference. But Notre Dame won the ACC tournament, reached the quarterfinals of the NCAA tournament before losing to No. 1 Kentucky by two points and finished No. 5 in the USA Today coaches final poll.

Has any team showed signs that it has that kind of surprising run in it?

Providence and Xavier were buried deep among the other teams receiving votes in the preseason Associated Press poll. But the Friars, with a win over Arizona, are up to No. 15, while the unbeaten Musketeers clobbered Michigan on the road, beat preseason Atlantic-10 favorite Dayton by 29 points and occupy the No. 12 spot.

UCLA's convincing upset of Kentucky indicates the Bruins may have more going for them than their current unranked status indicates.

We mentioned previously that Evansville and George Washington may have the talent to work their way into the Top 25 after failing to get a single vote in the preseason rankings, and Purdue now looks like a Big Ten contender despite a significant injury.

Ranked No. 23 in the preseason AP poll, the Boilermakers have won all nine games they have played by double-digit margins and are ranked No. 11. They won their last four games without Rapheal Davis, the 2015 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and the team's second-leading scorer last season. He is expected to return from a knee injury sometime this week.

You can bet that some other unassuming team will get on a hot streak midway through the season to make a name for itself. Only in retrospect will we claim that we saw it coming.