2016 Citrus Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Michigan vs. Florida
The 14th-ranked Michigan Wolverines and No. 19 Florida Gators will meet in the 2016 Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1 in Orlando, Florida.
Michigan (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten) showed dramatic improvement during the first year of head coach Jim Harbaugh's tenure at his alma mater. However, losses to Michigan State and Ohio State placed the Wolverines in the conference's best non-New Year's Six game.
Florida (10-3, 7-1 SEC) asserted itself in the College Football Playoff picture early on, but a season-ending suspension to starting quarterback Will Grier effectively ended the Gators' dreams.
The programs have twice met in postseason play, and Michigan won both matchups.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Florida's defense is excellent at creating turnovers, but Michigan struggles to force takeaways.
Both schools are ranked in the top 35 nationally at protecting the football, though. Whoever wins the turnover battle will have a notable advantage.
Check out the rest of the statistical comparisons in the above infographic.
Keys to Victory for Michigan
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Efficient Day from Jake Rudock
Florida's run defense is tenacious. Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry each tallied more than 180 yards on the ground, but most of their success came when the respective contests were decided.
Barring injuries between now and the bowl game, Michigan likely won't establish an effective rushing attack. The Wolverines haven't managed to do that since September.
Instead, quarterback Jake Rudock will guide the offense. He'll ride a school-record streak of four straight 250-plus-yard performances into Orlando.
As long as the senior avoids a costly mistake, Rudock will give Michigan's strength a chance to shine.
Contain Treon Harris' Dual-Threat Ability
During the final two games of the season, the Gators offense registered a single touchdown. It came in garbage time against Alabama.
Treon Harris is too limited to create a difference as a passer on anything other than a downfield prayer. But he doesn't lack speed, which has given Michigan's defense some problems.
Utah's Travis Wilson ran for 51 yards and a touchdown, Minnesota's Mitch Leidner scampered for a 24-yard score and Ohio State's J.T. Barrett piled up 139 yards, reaching the end zone thrice.
The linebackers must contain Harris sideline-to-sideline, which is easier said than done. But if the Wolverines allow only a couple of significant runs, they shouldn't have many problems locking up Florida.
Keys to Victory for Florida
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Run Successfully on First Down
Against Florida State and Alabama combined, the Gators averaged 1.7 yards on designed first-down runs.
It should come as no surprise Florida faced 3rd-and-3 or less just three times in 29 total attempts during those matchups and converted 17.2 percent overall.
Needless to say, that's not going to cut it against Harbaugh's team. The Gators absolutely must have success on first down against a Michigan defensive line that has struggled without Ryan Glasgow.
Setting up 3rd-and-short is critical, because the Wolverines surrendered 54.8 percent of third downs between one and three yards. Between four and 10, the conversion rate dropped to 10.9.
Score a Non-Offensive Touchdown—Maybe Two
Since Grier's suspension, Florida's offense has accumulated 11 touchdowns and two field goals over a six-game stretch.
The Gators will not beat Michigan with only 14 points from the unit whose sole purpose is to score. But that's where the defense and special teams—Antonio Callaway, specifically—come in.
Callaway returned a punt for a touchdown versus Alabama, and Florida trailed just 12-7 at halftime. Also, the defense caused a sack-fumble that initially looked like a potential score.
Had Jim McElwain's club capitalized on both opportunities, maybe it would've sprung the miracle upset. Regardless, the Gators will need at least one non-offensive touchdown to stick with Michigan.
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Players to Watch for Michigan
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Jehu Chesson, Wide Receiver
When the Wolverines found they weren't running the ball effectively, the coaches tweaked the game plan to throw more often. Jehu Chesson emerged as the biggest playmaker.
The blazing wideout scored eight touchdowns over the last five contests and notched 11 total this season, adding a pair of rushing scores and a kickoff return.
If Florida sends Vernon Hargreaves III to cover Amara Darboh, Rudock will be looking for Chesson early and often.
The Linebackers
Although Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers are Michigan's best defensive talents, the linebackers will be a key to containing Harris and the Florida running backs.
Unfortunately for the Wolverines, the unit headlined by Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan has struggled this season. The linebackers have regularly blown gap assignments and relied on ineffective arm tackles.
Michigan shouldn't expect a miraculous improvement—especially with defensive coordinator and position coach D.J. Durkin accepting the head coaching job at Maryland—but a fundamentally sound game for once is crucial.
Players to Watch for Florida
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Antonio Callaway, Wide Receiver
Electric. Dynamic. Explosive.
Callaway is every bit of those adjectives on the field. The standout freshman caught 30 passes for 603 yards, recording a stellar 20.1-yard average and four touchdowns.
He also took a punt to the house in Florida's two biggest games of the year against LSU and Alabama, tallying 15.0 yards per kick return throughout the year.
Michigan's secondary can stick with Callaway, but the special teamers might be a different story. The Gators will be looking to Callaway for the non-offensive touchdown.
Vernon Hargreaves III, Cornerback
Following Florida's loss to Alabama in the SEC title game, Hargreaves announced he is most likely going to declare for the NFL draft, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel.
It was an expected decision, but that means the Citrus Bowl is the final time Gators fans will watch the terrific cornerback at the collegiate level.
The potential first-round pick has tallied 31 tackles, four interceptions and four pass breakups in 2015.
What They're Saying
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Michigan
Harbaugh tabbed Chris Partridge, who was Peppers' coach in high school, as Durkin's replacement for the bowl game. Per Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press, Harbaugh commented on Partridge.
"Chris has a proven track record as a successful coach," Harbaugh said. "He brings a lot of energy and enthusiasm to his work as our Director of Player Personnel. I know that same passion will be exhibited on the field."
Florida
The Gators seemed to be content to simply reach the SEC Championship Game, but Thomas Goldkamp of 247Sports noted McElwain said the experience will only help them in the future.
"Part of it is the discovery of this football team," McElwain said. "What have we discovered? The taste of being here, you can't cut a price on it because the thirst to get back becomes oh so great...it's what you learn from it."
Prediction
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Florida starts strong and grabs an early lead, while Michigan sputters against a tough front seven.
However, the Wolverines coaches start leaning on Rudock and gradually abandon the running game except in short-yardage situations.
Rudock and Chesson connect for a touchdown, and fullback Sione Houma powers in another score for Michigan. The defense contains Harris and forces a handful of three-and-outs.
The Wolverines finish the season 10-3, while Florida drops to 10-4 in McElwain's first season at the school.
Prediction: Michigan 23, Florida 13
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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