College Football Picks Week 14: Predicting Top 25 Matchups Based on Vegas Odds
While this has been a fun college football season, it's only truly getting started this weekend with conference championship matchups.
The top of the College Football Playoff rankings could look extremely different when the final standings are released Tuesday.
Here is a look at the CFP Top 25 and the Week 14 matchups.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| 1 | Clemson | 12-0 | W 37-32 at South Carolina |
| 2 | Alabama | 11-1 | W 29-13 at Auburn |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | W 58-23 at No. 11 Oklahoma State |
| 4 | Iowa | 12-0 | W 28-20 at Nebraska |
| 5 | Michigan State | 11-1 | W 55-16 vs. Penn State |
| 6 | Ohio State | 11-1 | W 42-13 at No. 10 Michigan |
| 7 | Stanford | 10-2 | W 38-36 vs. No. 6 Notre Dame |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 10-2 | L 38-36 at No. 9 Stanford |
| 9 | Florida State | 10-2 | W 27-2 at No. 12 Florida |
| 10 | North Carolina | 11-1 | W 45-34 at North Carolina State |
| 11 | TCU | 10-2 | W 28-21 vs. No. 7 Baylor |
| 12 | Baylor | 9-2 | L 28-21 at No. 19 TCU |
| 13 | Ole Miss | 9-3 | W 38-27 @ No. 21 Mississippi State |
| 14 | Northwestern | 10-2 | W 24-14 vs. Illinois |
| 15 | Michigan | 9-3 | L 42-13 vs. No. 8 Ohio State |
| 16 | Oregon | 9-3 | W 52-42 vs. Oregon State |
| 17 | Oklahoma State | 10-2 | L 58-23 vs. No. 3 Oklahoma |
| 18 | Florida | 10-2 | L 27-2 vs. No. 13 Florida State |
| 19 | Houston | 11-1 | W 52-31 vs. No. 15 Navy |
| 20 | USC | 8-4 | W 40-21 vs. No. 22 UCLA |
| 21 | LSU | 8-3 | W 19-7 vs. Texas A&M |
| 22 | Temple | 9-2 | W 27-3 vs. Connecticut |
| 23 | Navy | 9-2 | L 52-31 at Houston |
| 24 | Utah | 9-3 | W 20-14 vs. Colorado |
| 25 | Tennessee | 8-4 | W 53-28 vs. Vanderbilt |
It's possible all four of the top teams remain the same after this weekend, but any could drop out with a loss as well.
The No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners can only sit and watch—and hope and pray—the lack of a conference championship game in the Big 12 does not hurt them, as it did the TCU Horned Frogs a season ago.
In the SEC, the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide should be able to handle a reeling No. 18 Florida Gators team, so consider them safely in the CFP.
Let's take a look at the full Week 14 CFP Top 25 schedule, the odds on each game, who you should pick to cover the spread and what will come of the other top-four teams playing this weekend:
| Texas at No. 12 Baylor | 12 p.m. | Baylor -20.5 | Texas |
| No. 22 Temple vs. No. 19 Houston | 12 p.m. | Houston -5.5 | Houston |
| No. 18 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama | 4 p.m. | Alabama -18 | Alabama |
| No. 20 USC vs. No. 7 Stanford | 7:45 p.m. | Stanford -4.5 | Stanford |
| No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Iowa | 8 p.m | Michigan State -3.5 | Iowa |
| No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Clemson | 8 p.m. | Clemson -4.5 | Clemson |
Most Intriguing Game
No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers
On paper, this game belongs to Clemson. The Tigers are undefeated, have been ranked No. 1 in every CFP poll and have one of the top offenses in the country.
North Carolina lost to the 3-9 South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 1, but it has won 11 in a row since and boasts a pretty good offense of its own.
What makes this game interesting is the chaos a Tar Heels victory will cause. If the Tar Heels do win, you have a situation where both teams have the same record, but UNC is 1-0 head-to-head and can claim the ACC championship.
Could a team nine spots below Clemson jump into the rankings while the No. 1 team falls out? It's not likely. However, in just the second year of the CFP, and no consistency to fall back on, it's hard to tell what the committee will do.
North Carolina actually averages more points per game than Clemson (41.3-37.9), but the Tar Heels have not faced an offense like the Tigers to this point.
In fact, they haven't faced a team close to Clemson's talent level, shown here by the Tigers' official Twitter account:
Look for the Tar Heels to hang in there, but Clemson will come out on top, sparing the CFP committee an extra headache.
Prediction: Clemson wins, 35-31.
Game of the Week
There is an odd matchup in the Big Ten between the No. 4 Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 5 Michigan State Spartans, in which the lower-ranked team is favored.
The Hawkeyes are undefeated, and Michigan State lost to the unranked Nebraska Cornhuskers, but many see an Iowa win as an upset.
Iowa running back Jordan Canzeri is fine with that, according to Nick Wilder of WHO TV Channel 13 in Des Moines, Iowa: “We’re not going to think differently. We have a lot of people doubting us and we have that each week. We do a great job here of just pushing out and excluding the noise.”
You could say Michigan State has earned the right to be favored. They have three Top 25 wins, including a 17-14 victory at the then-No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Spartans' loss came by one point on the road in Lincoln, Nebraska.
However, the Hawkeyes just won there in Week 13. By Saturday, all the speculation will end, and the only thing that will matter is the winner will leave as Big Ten champs—and most likely—as a top-four CFP team.
Iowa wide receiver Tevaun Smith said it's time the Hawkeyes show the nation how good they are, per Wilder: "This game is definitely going to prove if we can play or not, whether we win or lose. If we put up a good battle I feel like we’ll get some recognition from other people knowing that we’re a pretty good football team."
They'll put up a good show, but the Michigan State offense, which has put up 30-plus points eight times this year, will be too much for the Hawkeyes to handle.
Prediction: Michigan State wins, 30-27.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
