Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (3-8) will try to overcome the loss of quarterback Tony Romo for the second time this season when they visit the Washington Redskins (5-6) in the Week 13 Monday night game. The Cowboys saw Romo go down again with a season-ending collarbone injury in a 33-14 loss to the unbeaten Carolina Panthers as one-point home underdogs on Thanksgiving, while the Redskins moved into a tie atop the NFC East with a 20-14 win over the New York Giants as one-point home dogs.

Point spread: The Redskins opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.5-22.0 Redskins

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas took yet another hit with Romo now out for the season, but the defense is good enough to keep the team in games. Of the seven games Romo missed before returning briefly, five of them were decided by seven points or fewer. The Cowboys may have covered the spread in only one of those games, but that is because oddsmakers had a lot of respect for them, making them more than 4.5-point underdogs just once.

The favorite is also 3-7 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. Last year, Washington started Colt McCoy at quarterback on a Monday night with Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins out due to injuries and won 20-17 at Dallas as a nine-point underdog. Cowboys backup Matt Cassel is a better signal-caller than McCoy and should be able to keep them close in this one regardless of whether they win.

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

The Redskins have played much better at home, where Cousins' numbers could not be more different compared to how he performs on the road. They have won their last five games at FedEx Field with a 4-1 ATS mark while going 0-5 straight up and 1-4 versus the line away from home.

Cousins has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes at home, throwing for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 113. On the road, he has 1,155 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions and a passer rating of 69.8. Those statistics are why Washington can cover.

Smart pick

Dallas has played hard without Romo, but much of that was because the team did not want to give up on the season with him coming back soon. That is not the case anymore, so it will be interesting to see how the players react now that he is on the shelf for good. The Redskins have been so good at home that it is hard to even consider the other side. Back Washington to win and cover.

Betting trends

• The favored team is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games in this matchup.
• The Redskins are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
• The Cowboys are 10-4 SU and ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.