CBB Freshmen We Were Wrong About Early in 2015-16 Season
Let's face it: College basketball these days is built on freshmen.
If you don't have a good one, it's hard to get excited for the future. Wait—it's hard to be excited for the present.
The problem with all of that hype, though, is the prospect of being wrong—or at least a little off the mark on some distinctly more than the pack.
It's 20-some days til Dec. 25, and we're already feeling like Lloyd Christmas.
Slippy, slappy, swimmy, swammy, Swanson...Swanson?...Samsonite. We were way off...
Yes, we feel a little "Dumb and Dumber" that we thought it would take just one truly stud freshman to make an SEC football powerhouse relevant in basketball. We never figured Duke could be a little off, two times.
But let's not get totally negative—USC has a big guy changing a program for the better, and Marquette's revival has a freshman playing a big role, and we simply didn't give him enough praise in the offseason.
Remember, it's early. Take former Kansas one-and-done Kelly Oubre last year—couldn't get off the bench at the start of his career, but he was a key part of the Jayhawks continuing their Big 12 dominance by the end.
So we're keeping an eye on these guys to see if they can, or will, re-establish our preconceptions of them. After all, we feel like we've gotten to know them a little better in the last month.
Brandon Ingram, Duke
1 of 10
The hype: A sweet stroke and deep range
The reality: Shooting hasn't been strong at all.
The 6'9'' wing—Brandon Ingram—was the overwhelming choice as ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year. He was also the only freshman to be selected to the top two five-player teams overall.
It made sense in October to pay such attention to the in-state product known for a silky-smooth shot off a quick trigger. Throw in his size-mismatch potential and the fact he's playing at Duke—which was pretty solid last year relying on freshmen—and the sky seemed the limit for Ingram.
But he's bumping his head on a ceiling right now.
Ingram is averaging 10.9 points as of Tuesday, but he's doing it in a rather clunky way. He's a 24 percent shooter from three-point range and just 56 percent from the foul line.
Ingram is rivaling Duke sophomore Grayson Allen in shots and possession-control percentage, according to KenPom.com, but he isn't really holding up on his end of the bargain. Mind you, it's especially early to rate him. He didn't even turn 18 until September.
Last year Duke received 60 of its 68 title-game points from freshmen. It's possible this group could make that kind of difference again. But it's also quite possible Ingram headlines a recruiting class (among Chase Jeter, Derryck Thornton and others) pundits over-estimated just a tad too much.
Ben Simmons, LSU
2 of 10
The hype: An easy NCAA bid for LSU, at least, with the nation's top freshman
The reality: Did you see the Charleston score?
If LSU administrators were really upset about the job Les Miles was doing as football coach, there was an easy solution.
Does the "Mad Hatter" know anything about basketball? That's where LSU could really use some help. The top freshman—someone NBA teams should really be tanking to try and land, as opposed to Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker a couple of years ago—seems destined right now to be playing in a small NIT run.
LSU lost its third consecutive game, this time at Charleston—70-58—and it wasn't nearly that close. Charleston led, 39-17, at the half. LSU went a brutal six-minute stretch without scoring.
So Ben Simmons' "monster game" (15 points, 18 rebounds) bears the exact problem with these Tigers. They need more than him. Simmons called the result (after losses to North Carolina State and Marquette in Brooklyn) an "eye opener."
True, fellow freshman Antonio Blakeney was woefully off—0-of-9 overall, missing all four three-point tries—but the monster early deficit makes you wonder about this team's immediate future.
Maybe even that of coach Johnny Jones. LSU has shot below 40 percent in three consecutive games. They have looked scattered, to put it kindly, of late.
The bigger issue than Simmons is the overall energy level.
“We got crushed on the glass,” Jones said after the Charleston defeat, according to Sheldon Mickles of the Advocate of Baton Rouge. “When they missed shot opportunities, they got it; when we missed shots, they were able to get it. They were the aggressor on both ends of the floor. There was a big discrepancy on the glass in the first half.”
So while we wait for Simmons to become a 76er, we're a little surprised it might be a relatively rough go like Philly this year at the college level.
Malik Newman, Mississippi State
3 of 10
The hype: A top threat right away on a rebuilding team
The reality: (In our best Lee Corso...) "Not so fast, my friends."
Malik Newman shows up as a lottery pick on some NBA draft boards for next year, including NBADraft.net. He has a reputation as a sleek scorer (arguably the purest in this national freshman class) who would certainly lead up-and-coming Mississippi State to at least respectability. No one was expecting an NCAA bid from this group, led by multiple Final Four attendee coach Ben Howland.
But we were expecting better shooting numbers from the 6'4" Newman. The most hyped-up recruit in school history, part of a major rebuilding project, isn't making it look easy so far.
Newman is shooting just 36 percent from the field and 31 percent from the three-point line. Opposing teams are even defending his foul shots well, as he's at a 53 percent clip.
"Arguably the most heralded recruit in Mississippi State history, Newman will be the top playmaker on a team full of veterans," Athlon Sports' David Fox opined in the offseason, though hardly the only one to offer up such praise. "He’ll also be the go-to scorer for Ben Howland in his first season in Starkville."
But he hasn't yet eclipsed veteran guard Craig Sword as the team's most important player, per KenPom.com, and hasn't exactly looked good against inferior talent. On Nov. 28 he missed eight of his 10 shots against Tennessee Martin.
The Bulldogs returned four solid starters, but we still expected Newman to be more of a difference-maker to this point.
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Bennie Boatwright, USC
4 of 10
The hype: None really—among team or Pac-12
The reality: A mismatch difference-maker
The fact Bennie Boatwright is an immediate-impact player who is a big mismatch, because of his love of the three-point line, isn't a surprise from recruiting circles.
But the bigger deal is, it's hard to find any lists in the Pac-12 or nationally that list him as a top-tier newcomer who would be a major difference-maker.
Yet the 6'10" forward has been exactly that. Through the Trojans' first five games, he had 27 rebounds and 32 three-point attempts. He's helped the Trojans jump to their best start in five years.
We've tended to focus on Arizona's freshman (like usual) as the biggest newcomers to watch. Or Cal has been on everyone's radar for two reasons (Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown). Even fellow Trojan Chimezie Metu, a 6'11" newbie, has received more hype.
But Boatwright is shooting a respectable 43 percent from the field and 35 percent from the arc, including five made treys (in nine attempts) from the arc against Wichita State on Nov. 26. (We know the Shockers have fallen apart, but that's a different topic entirely.)
We've thought a lot about a recruit named Ben. But we should be looking at Bennie, too.
Thomas Bryant, Indiana
5 of 10
The hype: The focal point to solving Indiana's defensive woes
The reality: Jury's still out.
Alex Bozich of Inside the Hall pointed out a few of Indiana's struggles as they related to the Hoosiers' opening loss at the Maui Invitational last week.
The defense has a long way to go, he said, and "teams with size" will also be an ongoing issue. So Thomas Bryant isn't quite the savior Tom Crean or maybe pundits hoped for.
The 6'10" big fella from central New York appeared to break Orange-colored hearts when he turned down in-state Syracuse to head to Bloomington. But for now Jim Boeheim's team has been just fine, and Indiana lost to the two teams in Maui it played who were any good (sorry, St. John's, not quite there yet).
Bryant is averaging about about five rebounds and 1.5 blocks with that 7'6'' wingspan. We knew going in that IU's perimeter defense was sketchy. It's going to take more than Bryant's erstwhile energy and emotion to overcome those deficits.
It's hardly all Bryant's fault. The anticipation of him being the "missing piece" may have just been a little inaccurate.
Defensive cultures (or a lack of them in this case) don't die easy.
Henry Ellenson, Marquette
6 of 10
The hype: Scoring prowess
The reality: His getting on the glass was undervalued.
Henry Ellenson came in with the reputation of a post guy with a lot of ways to score. What's been even more valuable to Marquette, however, has been the rebounding ability.
He is averaging nearly 10 rebounds to go with his 15.2 points per game, thus he's more than living up to the hype surrounding his presence as a top-flight in-state recruit who is the Milwaukee school's biggest recruit since arguably Dwyane Wade.
Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore was spot-on in the preseason about Ellenson's offensive presence.
From Nov. 23-29 the 6'10" newbie posted double-doubles against three straight teams—including Ben Simmons and LSU. Iowa's size dominated him(three points, eight rebounds), but he seems to have learned from it.
But the bigger deal is the glass attack.
He's second on the Golden Eagles in offensive rebounds (trailing Luke Fischer), but the biggest thing is his top-90 national presence on the defensive glass, per KenPom.com. That's helping Steve Wojciechowski produce a defensive game plan that is better this year at limiting teams to one-shot possessions, also according to KenPom.com.
Jaylen Brown, Cal
7 of 10
The hype: He'd be the most prolific player on the team, from the get-go.
The reality: Standing out has been limited by foul trouble.
Jaylen Brown is playing out of position (power forward), and it's creating a lot of whistles at both ends of the floor.
He is top-30 nationally, according to KenPom.com, in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (8.4) but has also struggled to maintain a floor-time presence because of his own foul issues. Through six games he was committing 5.5 per 40 minutes—a half-foul more than what's allowable.
Along with fellow highly touted freshman Ivan Rabb, each committed a whopping 20 fouls in the season's first half-dozen games. Not exactly the way Cuonzo Martin wanted his Golden Bears to play. And it's not like the two newbies can claim the new referees' emphasis on freedom of movement for offensive players is a hindrance—these two have no collegiate points of reference.
Cal will continue to be plagued by substitution woes if it can't sort out the grabbing and fouling.
It creates choppy games, which is unfortunate because when he can get in some open space, it creates breath-taking plays.
Derryck Thornton, Duke
8 of 10
The hype: Dominant right away, will lead Duke to another title
The reality: Take a deep breath...
B/R's Jason King just published a fantastic read on Duke's new (and only) point guard.
We forget sometimes that these are still young people. We forget in a special case like Thornton's that he is younger than most college freshmen.
King's comment from ESPN analyst (and former Duke point guard) Jay Williams sums it up best:
"Being a freshman point guard for Coach K…it's mental hell—especially for a scoring guard," Williams said. "All of a sudden, you're analyzing everything. 'Has Grayson (Allen) gotten enough touches? Oh no, Matt Jones hasn't gotten a touch in two possessions. Now this guy is pressuring me and Coach K is asking for eye contact. Can I look up? Am I calling the right plays? Am I making sure guys are in the right place? Where are we in the shot clock? What defense are we in? I have to pressure the ball full-court. When is the next TV timeout? How many timeouts do we have left?'
"There is so much happening. You're balancing all of these things while you're trying to play a game. It takes time getting acclimated to all of that."
What's disappointing for Duke followers is how outclassed their team looked against also relatively young Kentucky in Chicago. Some folks were dumping Duke stock, for sure.
Ingram and Thornton, along with Chase Jeter and Luke Kennard, were a combined 4-of-18 in the Champions Challenge against UK.
Thornton also is averaging just 2.6 assists to start the season (through seven games)—a rough sign.
But read King's story, then maybe you'll be inclined to give him a little time.
Nick Emery, Brigham Young
9 of 10
The hype: Well, none really—seemingly outside of Provo, Utah
The reality: Could be the perfect complement to a triple-double king
Once upon a time, Nick Emery maybe wasn't the best high school player in the country. But he was the country's best high school basketball program's alpha dog.
Lone Peak in Highland, Utah, not far from the BYU campus, won a national championship in 2013. You might even recognize the school name more these days, because star point guard Frank Jackson is headed to Duke next year.
But Emery was a star in his own right. He disappeared for two years to perform relatively customary church (for BYU students, anyway) service. But then he faced some health issues while in Germany during that span.
Now a freshman, he may be just what the Cougars ordered as they try and take a really-new team back to the NCAA tournament.
The 6'2" guard is averaging 15 points on nearly 47 percent shooting and had 27 against Belmont on Nov. 28 in what's easily BYU's best win so far.
Kyle Collinsworth contributed a season-high 26 to go with 10 assists and 10 rebounds for his seventh career triple-double—a new NCAA record.
Four of those dimes went to Emery for 10 points.
The Cougars lost at Long Beach State, a disconcerting defeat that replicated previous seasons' trends of losing some non-conference games that would've been nice to have. Emery has been a 50 percent shooter the past two games and made eight of his 21 three-pointers.
BYU may not have the horses to unseat Gonzaga, but Emery's going to be a really big factor in the West Coast Conference—and NCAA tournament bubble picture.
Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
10 of 10
The hype: A solid pick-up on an OK team
The reality: A versatile presence on a Top 25 up-and-comer
CBSSports.com's Matt Norlander makes a very valid point: Tyler Lydon "isn't coming from nowhere."
But Lydon has come on stronger—just like Syracuse in general—than anyone could've anticipated.
The former four-star, top-100 recruit, per 247Sports, really was a big-time factor in Battle 4 Atlantis wins against Charlotte, UConn and Texas A&M. He posted roughly 16 points and nine rebounds per outing.
Lydon had a tidy 13 points on five shots (four made) with eight rebounds against Texas A&M in the championship game. He didn't force the issue, but he made things happen.
The 6'9" newcomer is particularly a coup because of Syracuse's ongoing scholarship limitations.
He can also play either forward spot depending upon the team's needs.
What can we say? We like value.
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