Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern Cal Trojans Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Stanford is 5-2 in its last seven matchups with Southern Cal, 4-3 against the spread, including an upset victory over the Trojans down in Los Angeles back in September. But can the Cardinal beat USC twice in one season? We'll find out when the teams meet in the Pac-12 Championship Game Saturday evening at Levi's Stadium.

Point spread: The Cardinal opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.9-30.0 Cardinal

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford has won two games in a row since its loss to Oregon, after outlasting Notre Dame last week 38-36. The Cardinal fell down by a point with 30 seconds to go on a short Irish touchdown run but got a big completion from quarterback Kevin Hogan and a 15-yard Notre Dame penalty, setting up Conrad Ukropina's game-winning field goal on the final play of the game.

Stanford took an early 7-0 lead on the Irish, then allowed a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Later, in the third quarter, the Cardinal took a 28-23 lead, then gave up a 62-yard Notre Dame touchdown run. But Hogan bailed the Stanford defense out, throwing four touchdown passes, along with Ukropina and his clutch kick.

At 10-2 overall, Stanford still clings to slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal clinched the Pac-12 South title last week with a 40-21 victory over UCLA. The Trojans fell behind the Bruins midway through the third quarter, 21-20, then scored the last 20 points of the game for the win and the cover as three-point favorites.

USC outrushed UCLA 235-140 and won time of possession by 20 minutes. The Trojans have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents and outrushed each of their last six foes.

Southern Cal is also now 5-2 since parting ways with head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Smart pick

Stanford was the smart choice in this matchup back in September, but that was as an underdog; this week the Cardinal are the favorites. And the favorite isn't just 0-4 ATS over the last four meetings in this series; it's lost all four games outright. Take the Trojans here, and they might not even need the points.

Betting trends

Southern Cal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after an ATS win.

Stanford is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.

Stanford is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.