Pac-12 Championship 2015: Schedule, Odds and Predictions for USC vs. Stanford
The University of Southern California has a chance to end what has been a trying season at times on a very positive note, as it clinched the Pac-12 South Division with a 40-21 win over rival UCLA on Saturday and will take on No. 9 Stanford in the 2015 Pac-12 Championship Game on December 5.
Stanford (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) already defeated USC 41-31 in Los Angeles on September 19, though much has changed since then for the Trojans. Head coach Steve Sarkisian is gone, axed in mid-October after an announced leave of absence due to an alleged ongoing battle with substance abuse.
USC (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12) still dropped road games to Notre Dame and Oregon under interim coach Clay Helton but kept its record clean in the Pac-12 South. The Cardinal, meanwhile, have rolled to victory after victory behind a stout defense and the myriad talents of running back Christian McCaffrey.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Stanford did lose a North Division game to Oregon 38-36 on November 12 but will be heading into the conference championship on a high note, having taken down No. 6 Notre Dame 38-36 on Saturday.
Here's the schedule and early odds for the matchup. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Monday, November 30 at 10 a.m. ET.
Pac-12 Championship Game Schedule, Odds
Date: Saturday, December 5
Time: 4:45 p.m. or 5 p.m. PT (7:45 p.m. or 8 p.m. ET)
Location: Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California
TV: ESPN
Over/Under Odds: 10-11, 61 points
Stanford comes into the game with the better record and overall resume. It lost just twice all season: one the aforementioned squeaker to Oregon and a 16-6 miscue to start the season at Northwestern. Stanford has also managed to do what USC couldn't in beating Notre Dame and Washington this year.
The Cardinal are also fighting for a slim—very slim—shot at the College Football Playoff after beating the Fighting Irish. USA Today's Daniel Uthman notes the team has put together an impressive season but would need Alabama to lose to Florida in the SEC championship to make room, and even then might need some help:
"Stanford's victory against Notre Dame on Saturday night eliminated one team ahead of it in the committee ranking. It would be interesting to see whether Stanford's credentials — two losses but eight quality wins, including one vs. Notre Dame and two vs. USC plus a Pac-12 title — might be enough to supplant the Big 12 champ.
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The Cardinal have found plenty of success on offense riding McCaffrey, who's rushed for 1,640 yards and seven touchdowns this season while leading the team in receptions with 37 and making waves in the return game. His all-purpose numbers are nothing short of phenomenal, per ESPN Stats & Info:
McCaffrey broke the Pac-12 single-season all-purpose yards record against the Fighting Irish, a mark previously held by one Reggie Bush.
He's made life fairly simple for senior quarterback Kevin Hogan, who deserves plenty of credit for being an efficient quarterback and limiting mistakes. Calling him a game manager would be a mistake, as these stats from ESPN's Dave Lombardi show:
Indeed, his numbers have been more efficient than even USC's Cody Kessler, an excellent young signal-caller in his own right. Kessler has thrown for 3,128 yards and 27 touchdowns against just six interceptions in 2015.
Wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been his favorite target all year, with 74 catches, 1,302 yards and 10 touchdowns. Here's an example of their prolific connection against UCLA, via the team's official Twitter account:
The Trojans running game has seen Ronald Jones, Justin Davis and Tre Madden star at various points this year, though Davis has had the hot hand as of late. The junior from Stockton, California, picked up 141 rushing yards against Oregon on November 21 and another 130 against the Bruins.
On defense, Stanford ranks 50th in total yards allowed. USC is a couple of rungs below at 70th (400 yards per game). The Trojans have done a fairly good job of limiting running backs this year, allowing just 3.84 yards per rush, according to NCAA.com. They are also one of the best teams in the nation at picking up extra possessions, with a plus-13 turnover margin.
The Cardinal defense has forced just 11 turnovers on the year. Overall, the special teams, McCaffrey and Hogan can't afford to make mistakes, as they will see plenty of action and can't count on the defense to make the big play, especially against an accurate quarterback like Kessler.
Stanford didn't have any turnovers in its win over USC earlier in the year, nor did it force any. What did work was limiting the Trojans to converting on 40 percent of their third downs, per ESPN.com, while keeping the chains moving themselves and dominating the clock.
Stanford also managed to limit Adoree Jackson to one punt return for zero yards. Jackson can be devastating in the return game, as UCLA learned the hard way on Saturday.
The Trojans will be ready to scratch and claw for everything under coach Helton. Linebacker Su'a Cravens told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times that the team fights that much harder knowing Helton's job is on the line:
"We want Coach Helton, plain and simple, we don't need to meet with Pat Haden, he knows we want Coach Helton, the way he's got this team back together … everybody on this team would give an arm and a leg for Coach Helton. Now we take it personally, Helton's job being on the line is making us fight even harder.
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Expect another close game this time around between the Trojans and Cardinal, with the point totals for both teams again reaching into the 30s. McCaffrey is going to again prove a tough player to bring down. Even if USC keys in on the star back, Hogan has the goods to beat the Trojans through the air and at least keep apace with Kessler. USC will surge to an early lead, but steady Stanford will cooly come back for a big championship win.
Prediction: Stanford 34-30 USC
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
