College Football Rankings 2015: Hits and Misses from the Week 14 Polls
The College Football Playoff picture is as clear as it's ever been. The only thing that can derail it now is if Alabama and Clemson lose in the SEC and ACC championship games, respectively.
If all things go chalk, it looks as though the Tide and Tigers, along with Oklahoma and the Big Ten champion, will make up the playoff field. Like it or not, that's how it's going to be, barring a massive, unexpected change of heart from the selection committee. The latest rankings from the USA Today Amway coaches poll and the Associated Press Top 25 reflect as much.
Still, some shuffling could make things interesting if chaos breaks out. With Quarterfinal Saturday a week away, it's time to look at how the latest polls shook out.
Where did pollsters get it right? Where did they swing and miss? We give our two cents in the following slides based not only on the past week's action but also on what has transpired so far this season.
Hit: Oklahoma
1 of 5
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 4 (previously No. 5)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 3 (previously No. 5)
Last Tuesday, the committee surprised everyone when it placed Oklahoma at No. 3—up four spots from the week before. If nothing else, the timing of the move—the Sooners needed a failed two-point conversion to hold off a rally from TCU—was curious.
However, a 58-23 win over Oklahoma State on the road should be more than enough to keep the Sooners in the top four, which the AP and coaches polls are reflecting. As it turns out, Oklahoma should be just fine without a conference championship game, the very thing many pointed to as a detriment to the Big 12.
Critics will look at Oklahoma's embarrassing midseason loss to Texas and to the fact that Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU were banged up when they played the Sooners. But almost everyone is short-handed in November, and you haven't heard a peep about Stanford beating a Notre Dame squad that was playing mostly backups.
The fact remains the Sooners won two of their three biggest games (vs. Oklahoma State and Baylor) by double digits. It also has a notable nonconference victory against Tennessee and a top-20 strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.com.
Yes, Oklahoma is a top-four team in the minds of the committee and now in the pollsters' eyes, too.
Miss: Michigan State
2 of 5
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 5 (previously No. 6)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 5 (previously No. 6)
We're splitting hairs at this point, but with the Top 25 polls so closely aligned to what the committee will likely do on Tuesday, that's what this has been reduced to.
The order of Iowa and Michigan State won't matter in a week. It's universally believed the winner of the Big Ten title game will be in the playoff. For now, though, there's a solid case to be made that Michigan State, even with a loss to 5-7 Nebraska, should be ahead of undefeated Iowa.
The Spartans have a win over a current Top 10 team (Ohio State) and two other wins against Top 20 teams (Michigan and Oregon). Iowa's best win, on the other hand, is against Northwestern. In fact, the Wildcats and Wisconsin are the only two Top 25 wins the Hawkeyes have on the year.
If losses matter less in this new postseason era, it seems we should be rewarding Michigan State more for what it has done. The rankings can be adjusted accordingly following the Big Ten title game.
Hit: Notre Dame
3 of 5
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 10 (previously No. 4)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 9 (previously No. 4)
It's understandable to move 10-2 Notre Dame out of the playoff conversation via rankings. Voters are going to put the Irish in a spot in which they can't jump ahead of teams with a more realistic shot at the playoff (e.g. Stanford, Ohio State and even North Carolina).
Still, kudos to voters for keeping Notre Dame in the Top 10, where it belongs.
Per Sagarin rankings, Notre Dame has the 19th most difficult schedule. Among Top 10 teams, only Alabama and Stanford have tougher schedules. With that tough docket, Notre Dame has won 10 games. The two games it lost—against the Cardinal and Clemson, the No. 1 team in the nation—came by a combined four points. Stanford won on a last-second field goal, and Clemson won because the Irish failed a two-point conversion.
"We're two plays away from being undefeated and being the No. 1 team in the country, you know. One play at Clemson and one play here at Stanford," head coach Brian Kelly said, per Ted Miller of ESPN.com.
On top of everything, Notre Dame has been, perhaps, the most injury-plagued team this year. Quarterback DeShone Kizer was a third-stringer in the spring, and current running back Josh Adams is replacing C.J. Prosise, a converted wide receiver.
That's not to say Notre Dame should be in the Top Four or even Top Six, but let's give the Irish a little credit and be happy they weren't placed lower than they deserved to be.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Miss: Stanford
4 of 5
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 7 (previously No. 12)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 7 (previously No. 13)
Like you, I watched Ohio State dissect Michigan's defense for fun on Saturday. Like you, I wondered "where was this all year?" The excitement of finally seeing what the Buckeyes can be is a tempting thing on which to latch.
But, at this point in the year, we should concentrate on what teams have done, not what could have been. Even with two losses, Stanford has a far better strength of schedule (16 to 61, per Sagarin) and is actually in a position to play for a conference championship.
If Stanford wins the Pac-12 next week, it's not entirely out of the playoff race. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight believes the Cardinal and Buckeyes have the best chance of making the playoff in the event of chaos. In such a situation, however, shouldn't the Cardinal get the edge for actually winning their division and conference?
Hit: USC
5 of 5
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 24 (previously NR)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 24 (previously NR)
We're one week away from the end of the 2015 season and officially have a four-loss team in the Top 25: USC. Cynics will wonder if any other four-loss team would be ranked in such a situation, and it's a fair thing to question.
However, consider the following: After starting 3-3, the Trojans have won five of their last six games. Their lone loss was to Oregon, which—the Pac-12 championship matchup be damned—might be playing the best football in the conference right now.
Speaking of the Pac-12 championship, USC secured a spot against Stanford next weekend after beating UCLA 40-21. The game won't have the playoff implications for USC like many thought before the season—the Cardinal still have an outside shot under the right circumstances—but this is a nice bounce back from a tumultuous start, which included the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
