December Madness: Crowning the Ultimate Champion of the Early-Season Tournaments

Wouldn't it be amazing if the winners of college basketball's early-season tournaments punched a ticket to one giant tournament designed to crown the ultimate champion of the non-conference season?

A total of 20 non-exempt tournaments were played in November, crowning 20 different champions. We took those 20 teams and ranked them from top to bottom based on three factors:

• Preseason expectations (scored from 1 to 20)
• Strength of tournament schedule (scored from 1 to 10)
• Level of dominance in tournament (scored from 1 to 10)

For a perfect score of 40, a team must have opened the season as one of the favorites for the national championship before looking nearly invincible in a strong path to its tournament title. At the opposite end of the spectrum, a minimum score of three points would be awarded to a team with no preseason hope for an at-large bid that just barely won against poor competition.

It wasn't enough to just rank the teams, though. We've also projected what would happen in each round of this tournament of champions.

Shame on Kentucky and Oklahoma for not playing in a November tournament, but we still ended up with a strong Elite Eight despite having to exclude those contenders.

Nos. 20-17: Middle Tennessee-Creighton

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20. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Score: 3)
Beat Alaska-Anchorage (75-72), UNC-Asheville (63-61) and Toledo (78-70) to win Great Alaska Shootout

We'll say this much for the Blue Raiders: They have some unique names on their roster.

Giddy Potts leads them in scoring, but Perrin Buford, Quavius Copeland and Jaqawn Raymond have made some significant contributions of their own.

But this is a team that committed 18 turnovers in nearly losing to D-II Alaska Anchorage. Middle Tennessee built on that performance by nearly blowing a 19-point lead against UNC-Asheville the following night.

Though the Blue Raiders played pretty well against Toledo in the championship game, it was a rare instance of a team winning an early-season tournament and creating even more doubts in the process.

19. UTEP Miners (Score: 4)
Beat Southern Illinois (71-66) and Colorado State (99-90) to win Corpus Christi Challenge

Don't look now, but Tim Floyd might have something brewing with UTEP, despite losing four of last year's five leading scorers.

One of the main players at the heart of the Miners' 6-0 start is former Oregon Duck Dominic Artis. You may recall that Artis was one of three players dismissed from the team during the 2014 offseason amid allegations of sexual assault. Though Artis was named in the investigation, he was never charged with anything and has now been given a second chance with UTEP.

So far, so good. Artis is averaging 11.7 points, 6.0 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game in his new threads.

JUCO transfer Lee Moore and former Kent State transfer Earvin Morris are leading the team in scoring, so the Miners are really capitalizing on guys they didn't sign out of high school.

18. Weber State Wildcats (Score: 8)
Beat Central Michigan (63-60), Drake (74-58) and Murray State (75-59) to win Gulf Coast Showcase

If nothing else, at least the Gulf Coast Showcase put Joel Bolomboy on Jay Bilas' radar. The senior forward had 13 double-doubles last season, but he's already 6-of-6 in the category this season, averaging 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game.

Surely, Bolomboy has been the workhorse in the paint, but Jeremy Senglin has been Weber State's scoring connoisseur. The junior guard is averaging 21.8 points per game and has made at least 50 percent of his three-point attempts in all six games. In the Gulf Coast Showcase, he averaged 36.0 minutes and 25.0 points per game.

Perhaps most impressive about Weber State's three straight wins is that the Wildcats came into the tournament with an 0-2 record against D-I teams before taking care of business against Central Michigan and Murray State—either of which could get into the NCAA tournament as a No. 13 seed and wreak some havoc.

17. Creighton Bluejays (Score: 11)
Beat Rutgers (85-75) and Massachusetts (97-76) to win Men Who Speak Up Main Event

Led by Nevada transfer Cole Huff and Boston transfer Mo Watson Jr., Creighton is putting up some crazy numbers at this early stage of the season. Even though the Bluejays couldn't get anything going on offense in an 86-65 loss to Indiana, they have averaged 90 points per game and have five wins by a double-digit margin.

That's a far cry from the offensively anemic team that went 4-14 in Big East play last season while averaging less than 64 points per conference game.

Of course, there's also a fine line between facing Rutgers, Massachusetts, Western Illinois, Texas Southern and UTSA and what they're going to be facing in January and February. Still, it's been a great start for a team that had next to nothing to root for last year.

Nos. 16-13: Marquette-Syracuse

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16. Marquette Golden Eagles (Score: 11)
Beat LSU (81-80) and Arizona State (78-73) to win Legends Classic

I'll be honest: I have no read on the Golden Eagles whatsoever. They don't shoot well, they commit too many turnovers, they're very average on the glass, yet they somehow beat LSU and Arizona State on back-to-back nights.

What I do know is that Henry Ellenson is the real deal and that he and Luke Fischer are going to cause a lot of migraines for opposing coaches this season. The duo combined for 71 points, 38 rebounds and seven blocks in the Legends Classic.

One other given with Marquette is that Steve Wojciechowski's guards will make nothing easy for the competition. LSU and Arizona State shot a combined 12-of-45 (26.7 percent) from three-point range against Marquette, as both teams' primary guards were woefully inefficient against the Golden Eagles.

Then again, this is also the same Marquette team that lost to Iowa by 28 at home right before the Legends Classic, and its schedule is infested with cream puffs for the next five weeks. It might be some time before anyone feels confident about what the Golden Eagles are bringing to the table this year.

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (Score: 18)
Beat DePaul (76-61), Hofstra (94-84) and Tulsa (83-75) to win Paradise Jam

It has been a long decade for South Carolina, but led by veteran Lithuanian duo Mindaugas Kacinas and Laimonas Chatkevicius, this might be the year the Gamecocks break on through to the other side.

They're off to a good start, sitting at 6-0 thanks to three better-than-you-may-realize wins in the Paradise Jam.

DePaul might be the worst major-conference team in the country, but even the worst Big East team is better than the vast majority of mid-major and minor conference teams. Thus, it was impressive to see South Carolina handle DePaul with relative ease.

Even more impressive were the subsequent wins over Hofstra and Tulsa, who have already scored huge upsets over Florida State and Wichita State, respectively. Those aren't schools that a team is typically terrified to see on its schedule, but both the Pride and the Golden Hurricane have to be considered a legitimate threat this season.

More promising than the quality of the wins, though, is the efficiency of South Carolina's offense. This team couldn't shoot fish in a barrel last year, but the Gamecocks are averaging 85.5 points per game and shooting better than 38 percent from three-point range. Combine it with another season of tough, Frank Martin defense, and this is a team we should hear from on Selection Sunday for the first time since 2004.

14. Cincinnati Bearcats (Score: 21)
Beat Nebraska (65-61) and George Washington (61-56) to win Barclays Center Classic

The unstoppable offense from the first four games of the season has disappeared, but Cincinnati's shutdown defense is clearly back for at least one more year.

Winning in spite of poor shooting is nothing new for the Bearcats, so no need to sound the alarm over their "just barely better than 1.00 points per possession" offense over the past three games. As long as they keep defending without fouling and crashing the offensive glass, this is going to be one of the most difficult teams to beat.

In the last three games (two in the Barclays Center Classic and one against Southeastern Louisiana), Cincinnati has averaged 14.3 offensive rebounds while allowing just 6.7 free-throw attempts per game.

Given all the early griping about whistles and free throws, that second number is almost unthinkable. NC State's Anthony "Cat" Barber is averaging 12.5 free-throw attempts per game this season, but entire teams are averaging fewer than seven per game against Cincinnati in the past week. That's definitely something to keep in mind for the NCAA tournament. 

13. Syracuse Orange (Score: 23)
Beat Charlotte (83-70), Connecticut (79-76) and Texas A&M (74-67) to win Battle 4 Atlantis

This spot was supposed to be reserved for Gonzaga. If America's favorite Cinderella team didn't win the Battle 4 Atlantis, though, the assumption was that it would be either Connecticut or Texas A&M.

Lo and behold, Syracuse caught fire, shooting 46.6 percent from three-point range in the process of draining 34 triples against Charlotte, Connecticut and Texas A&M.

Michael Gbinije was barely good enough to touch the court during his freshman season at Duke, but the fifth-year senior is making a serious early push for the national All-American team by averaging 19.7 points, 4.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 2.8 steals while shooting 51.3 percent from three-point range through six games. Trevor Cooney is also making good on his final year of eligibility by averaging 15.0 points per game.

Forget about the old timers, though, because the story at Syracuse is a duo of freshmen. Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon are each playing better than 30 minutes per game and shooting well to the tune of double-digit scoring averages. Lydon is also Syracuse's best shot-blocker and second-best rebounder.

The ACC has a lot of extremely good teams this season, and the Orange officially need to be considered a part of that club.

Nos. 12-9: West Virginia-Iowa State

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12. West Virginia Mountaineers (Score: 24)
Beat Richmond (67-59) and San Diego State (72-50) to win Las Vegas Invitational

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

New rules be damned, West Virginia looked really good in the Las Vegas Invitational while playing the same style of basketball that resulted in 25 wins last season. The Mountaineers still can't shoot (27.7 percent from three-point range), but they are No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 1 in steal percentage, according to KenPom.com.

The big difference from last season is their three-point defense.

Richmond and San Diego State shot a combined 13-of-28 (46.4 percent) from three-point range against California, but they were 2-of-24 (8.3 percent) against West Virginia. That's an unsustainably amazing number, but West Virginia's opponents shot 36.5 percent from downtown last year, which ranked 274th nationally.

Because of the Mountaineers' aggressive style of play, they end up taking way more shots than their opponents. Last year, they averaged 14.6 more field-goal attempts per game than their competition. So, if opponents are going to have a harder time making triples this year, you probably don't need a math degree to understand that bodes well for West Virginia.

11. North Carolina Tar Heels (Score: 27)
Beat Northwestern (80-69) and Kansas State (80-70) to win CBE HOF Classic

It's tough to rank the Tar Heels without Marcus Paige, but the fact of the matter is they didn't look particularly strong against a relatively weak field in the CBE HOF Classic. All due respect to Northwestern and Kansas State, but those are teams that should get destroyed by the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Yet, both sets of Wildcats had a reasonable shot at beating North Carolina.

The good news for the Tar Heels is that other players are stepping up in a big way in Paige's absence. Justin Jackson finished the two-game tournament with 43 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists. Theo Pinson has emerged as a stat-sheet stuffer and a serious secondary or tertiary three-point weapon. Even Isaiah Hicks has at least six points and four rebounds in each game this season.

In theory, the late-game experience these guys are getting will pay dividends later in the season when—unlike last year—they do something other than sit back and wait for Paige to work his magic.

The injury to Paige may end up being a blessing, because this roster always had the talent to win a national championship. We just weren't sure if anyone other than Paige possessed a killer instinct.

10. Xavier Musketeers (Score: 28)
Beat Alabama (64-45), USC (87-77) and Dayton (90-61) to win Advocare Invitational

Who could have guessed that Xavier would get substantially more dominant on the glass after losing Matt Stainbrook?

Through seven games, the Musketeers have an average rebounding margin of positive-14.4. They were plus-43 in that department in the Advocare Invitational.

It hasn't just been individual players, either. In fact, there wasn't a single Musketeer who tallied 10 or more rebounds in any of the Advocare Invitational games. It has been a team-wide focus on creating second-chance opportunities while denying them to the opposition.

Though Jalen Reynolds and James Farr have been extremely valuable in the paint, the overall star of the show so far has been Trevon Bluiett. Not only does he have a defensive rebounding rate nearly twice that of last season, but Bluiett has at least 10 points and two made three-pointers in every game this year. He struggled at times last season, but Xavier could be great all year long if he's ready to consistently lead this team.

9. Iowa State Cyclones (Score: 28)
Beat Virginia Tech (99-77) and Illinois (84-73) to win Emerald Coast Classic

Based on preseason expectations and how well they played in their tournament, the Cyclones probably deserve to be ranked at least two or three spots higher than this. Unfortunately, their level of competition in the Emerald Coast Classic was rather unimpressive, hence their position at No. 9 on the list.

That said, are we ready to start showing some love to Monte Morris yet? The nation's most efficient point guard had 34 points, 13 assists, 11 rebounds and no turnovers against Virginia Tech and Illinois. He didn't have anywhere near as many steals (one) as he did in Iowa State's first three games (10), nor is he shooting the three ball particularly well yet. But we learned in the past two seasons that he can excel in both of those areas of the game.

More importantly, Abdel Nader's hot start to the season continued this week, as he had 34 points, 15 rebounds and five steals against just four turnovers. He also shot 61.9 percent from the field—incredible, considering he came into this season with a career field-goal percentage of 35.2.

With Nader playing more efficiently, good luck finding any sort of weakness on this offense.

Nos. 8-5: Duke-Virginia

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8. Duke Blue Devils (Score: 30)

Beat VCU (79-71) and Georgetown (86-84) to win 2K Classic

People had a grand ol' time burying Duke after the loss to Kentucky, but bad things are liable to happen when Grayson Allen struggles—as is the case for every team and its star player.

Allen bounced back admirably from the disappointing Champions Classic by averaging 31.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the 2K Classic.

Perhaps even more promising for the Blue Devils was the play of freshman Derryck Thornton.

He also struggled quite mightily against Kentucky, but he really held his own against VCU's defense as well as Georgetown's D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, finishing the two-game event with 33 points, six assists and five turnovers. That assist-to-turnover ratio needs to improve as the season progresses, but it was good to see some signs of life from a player whose addition was so crucial to Duke's chances of repeating as national champs.

Now the Cameron Crazies are just waiting for Brandon Ingram to show up. Between the Champions and 2K Classics, Ingram had 17 points on 20 field-goal attempts, missed eight free throws and amassed a grand total of seven rebounds and three assists. That's not what we were expecting from one of the highest rated recruits in the country, but he should turn things around soon.

7. Purdue Boilermakers (Score: 31)
Beat Old Dominion (61-39) and Florida (85-70) to win HOF Tip-Off

If Purdue isn't on your Final Four radar, it's time to recalibrate that equipment.

The Boilermakers have yet to play a game that they didn't win by at least a 15-point margin. On average, the final score of their games has been 84.5-57.3. And while beating up on North Carolina A&T and Incarnate Word may not be worth writing home about, stomping Old Dominion and Florida on back-to-back days is pretty darn impressive.

That front line of Isaac Haas, A.J. Hammons and Caleb Swanigan is just too much for opponents to handle. Old Dominion is an undersized team, and it showed as the Monarchs shot 25.5 percent from inside the arc against Purdue. Florida was considerably more successful with John Egbunu scoring 19 points, but the Gators couldn't slow down Purdue's offensive onslaught.

The scary thing is that Swanigan is light years away from being a finished product. He's rebounding very well, but he's averaging 3.8 turnovers per game and shooting worse than 40.0 percent from the field. Once the game starts to slow down for him, Purdue could be the best team in the country.

6. Villanova Wildcats (Score: 31)
Beat Stanford (59-45) and Georgia Tech (69-52) to win NIT Tip-Off

The three-point shot has been uncharacteristically unreliable for Villanova, but its defense has been among the best in the nation. Through six games, the average final score of a Villanova "contest" has been 77.8-53.5.

Most incredible about those scores is how atrocious Villanova has been on the defensive glass. In the NIT Tip-Off, Stanford and Georgia Tech combined for 36 offensive rebounds against the Wildcats, but still had a nightmare of a time actually scoring any points.

Even bigger news than the great team defense has been the individual contribution from stud freshman Jalen Brunson. After losing both Dylan Ennis and Darrun Hilliard this offseason, getting consistent production out of Brunson will be imperative to Villanova's success. He had 31 points in the NIT Tip-Off and led the Wildcats in scoring in both games.

5. Virginia Cavaliers (Score: 31)
Beat Bradley (82-57), Long Beach State (87-52) and George Mason (83-66) to win Charleston Classic

Others quickly followed suit, but because the Cavaliers had the misfortune of being the first top-10 team to suffer a loss this season, they needed to prove something in the Charleston Classic to win back some believers.

They did that, slaughtering Bradley, Long Beach State and George Mason by a combined margin of 77 points.

Granted, not one of those three teams is expected to partake in the 2016 NCAA tournament, but we just needed to make sure that Virginia's defense and pace of play will work under the new rules.

Not only was the defense on point, but the offense really came to play in Charleston, as Virginia averaged 84 points per game in the three wins. London Perrantes—usually much more a facilitator of the offense than a statistical benefactor of it—scored in double figures in all three games and shot 8-of-13 from three-point range.

Nos. 4-1: Miami-Kansas

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4. Miami Hurricanes (Score: 32)

Beat Mississippi State (105-79), Utah (90-66) and Butler (85-75) to win Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Unlike most of the teams on the list, we've already seen Miami in action since winning its early-season tournament. The result wasn't a good one, as the Hurricanes lost at home to Northeastern on Friday.

Fortunately, that game couldn't matter less to where Miami is ranked, as we're solely interested in preseason expectations, who you beat in your tournament and how soundly you beat them. Of those categories, preseason expectations is the only one the Hurricanes didn't pass with flying colors, perhaps due in large part to their missing the 2015 NCAA tournament.

But if they can get back to playing like they did in Puerto Rico, there's no chance they're missing the Big Dance this year. Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez took turns being awesome, while Tonye Jekiri took care of business down low, finishing the tournament with 40 points and 34 rebounds.

Miami was unstoppable on offense. It scored 280 points on 211 possessions, according to KenPom.com. That's 1.327 points per possession. Putting that number in perspective, 2014-15 Wisconsin had the most efficient offense in the KenPom.com era, and the Badgers only averaged 1.210 points per possession.

3. Maryland Terrapins (Score: 32)
Beat Illinois State (77-66) and Rhode Island (86-63) to win Cancun Challenge

It took a few games, but it looks like Maryland is finally starting to round into what we expected to see from this team.

Robert Carter Jr. had 26 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks in the Cancun Challenge. Rasheed Sulaimon is hitting shots now, scoring a combined 35 points in the pair of games. And as an entire unit, the Terrapins have been very good in the paint on offense, shooting 62.8 percent from two-point range.

Yet, there's a lot of work still to be done.

Freshman Diamond Stone is a work in progress, as he played just 28 minutes in the Cancun Challenge, finishing the event with more personal fouls (seven) than rebounds (five). Jake Layman had some key plays late in the comeback win over Rider but has otherwise been fairly invisible. And where is the Melo Trimble who averaged nearly seven free-throw attempts per game last year? In his last three games, Trimble has attempted a total of 10 free throws and is 0-of-6 from three-point range.

Maryland has dealt with its fair share of early scares, but once those pieces start clicking, the Terrapins are going to be a real force.

2. Michigan State Spartans (Score: 34)
Beat Boston College (99-68), Boise State (77-67) and Providence (77-64) to win Wooden Legacy

Denzel Valentine is the early favorite for the Wooden Award, but his supporting cast hasn't been too shabby, either.

Freshman Deyonta Davis has scored in double figures in four consecutive games, shooting 80.0 percent from the field in the process. Bryn Forbes is shooting 50.0 percent from three-point range and had a huge game against Providence on Sunday night while Valentine dealt with foul trouble. Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn has 31 assists against just six turnovers. Freshman Matt McQuaid has developed a flair for the dramatic, seemingly always the one to hit the back-breaking three-pointer. And Matt Costello has quietly been very solid on the glass.

But this team goes where Valentine leads. Despite early foul trouble against Providence, DV averaged 26.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game in the Wooden Legacy, including his second triple-double of the season in the opener against Boston College. As long as he stops committing silly fouls, there might not be a player in the country who can slow him down.

"At this point of the season, pretty much any way you slice it, there hasn’t been a player in college basketball better than Valentine," wrote Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports on Monday afternoon.

1. Kansas Jayhawks (Score: 36)
Beat Chaminade (123-72), UCLA (92-73) and Vanderbilt (70-63) to win Maui Invitational

Were it not for their loss to Michigan State in the Champions Classic, the Jayhawks might be the unanimous No. 1 team in the country right now.

They were dominant in the Maui Invitational, where Wayne Selden averaged 19.3 points per game and shot 70.6 percent from three-point range. Kansas also got great production out of Devonte' Graham (12.0 points, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.7 turnovers per game) and finally got some signs of life from Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, who shot 9-of-22 (40.9 percent) from three-point land.

Best of all, stud freshman Cheick Diallo was finally cleared to begin playing this week. There's no telling what type of immediate impact he'll be able to make after missing more than a month's worth of games, exhibitions and practices, but everyone seems to expect Diallo to be the missing link who propels Kansas to the No. 1 overall seed this March.

First Round

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Now that we've ranked all 20 early-season tournament winners, who actually wins the tournament of champions?

No. 13 Syracuse over No. 20 Middle Tennessee

Really no contest here. Syracuse's biggest weakness—as it has been for several decades of head coach Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone—is defensive rebounding. However, Middle Tennessee is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, corralling a grand total of nine offensive boards against UNC-Asheville and Toledo.

Moreover, Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney would run circles around the Blue Raiders.

No. 14 Cincinnati over No. 19 UTEP

Similarly, there's no real reason to believe one of the nation's most elite defenses would struggle with a Conference USA team that is downright awful on the offensive glass. Though UTEP ranks top-10 on offense in both block percentage and steal percentage, you have to think the Miners would fall victim to Cincinnati's top 11 defense in both block percentage and steal percentage.

No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 18 Weber State

Weber State would at least put up a strong fight in this one, but the Wildcats' two-man show of Joel Bolomboy and Jeremy Senglin probably wouldn't be enough to eke out a win against a veteran South Carolina team that has mastered the art of drawing fouls. Also, Weber State's on-ball defense isn't good enough to create problems for the Gamecocks.

No. 17 Creighton over No. 16 Marquette

It's not a tournament without at least one opening-round upset, right?

When these two square off during Big East play, they should be fun, up-tempo games with a pair of power forwards (Henry Ellenson and Cole Huff) who are willing and able to get their buckets from the perimeter. However, Marquette's advantage down low isn't quite enough to make up for Creighton's advantage at the guard positions.

Things might be different in a couple months, but play this game today and Creighton's Mo Watson Jr. would likely eviscerate Marquette's freshman point guard, Traci Carter.

Sweet 16

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No. 1 Kansas over No. 17 Creighton

While Mo Watson Jr. gives Creighton the edge against Marquette, he'd have a hard time breaking even against Kansas' Frank Mason. So, if Wayne Selden keeps playing the way he did in the Maui Invitational, this one's probably over by halftime.

No. 9 Iowa State over No. 8 Duke

This game has serious 2016 Final Four potential written all over it, but Iowa State's experience would be just too much for the Blue Devils this early in the season.

Right now, Monte Morris vs. Derryck Thornton isn't even a fair fight. Surprisingly, neither is Abdel Nader vs. Brandon Ingram. And Grayson Allen would presumably have at least some degree of difficulty getting to the rim against Jameel McKay.

Furthermore, Duke relies too heavily on free throws, and Iowa State has been just about the most foul-averse team in the country on both sides of the ball. According to KenPom.com, the Cyclones rank 350th in the nation in percentage of points scored on free throws as well as percentage of points allowed on free throws.

No. 5 Virginia over No. 12 West Virginia

On Dec. 8, we get to find out who would win if these two teams were put on a neutral court.

It should be a blast, because they are pretty much the perfect foil for one another. Virginia plays at a snail's pace, very rarely commits turnovers, dominates the defensive glass and shoots pretty well from three-point range. West Virginia plays at a breakneck pace, forcing as many turnovers as possible, dominating the offensive glass and holding opponents to a very poor three-point percentage.

Something has to break, but our guess is that order triumphs over chaos. In games where they didn't record at least 10 steals, the Mountaineers were perfectly average last season with a 7-7 record. And Virginia hasn't committed 10 turnovers in a game yet this year.

No. 13 Syracuse over No. 4 Miami

Miami's three-point defense has been atrocious. The Hurricanes' last four opponents have shot a combined 44.6 percent from downtown. Meanwhile, Syracuse's three-point offense is liquid-hot magma, shooting 45.5 percent over its last four games.

And though Miami's three-point offense has been pretty incredible this season, teams have historically struggled from beyond the arc against the Syracuse 2-3 zone. According to KenPom.com, opponents have shot 31.5 percent or worse against Syracuse in six of the past seven seasons and are shooting 28.6 percent against the Orange this year.

It's a close one, but Tyler Lydon and Tyler Roberson do just enough down low to let Syracuse's perimeter edge result in the biggest upset of this tournament.

No. 11 North Carolina over No. 6 Villanova

I wish this game was taking place, so we could see how Villanova handles a team with multiple legitimate interior options.

Thus far, 21 minutes per game from Daniel Ochefu and 17 minutes of Darryl Reynolds has been enough for the Wildcats to post the fourth-best two-point field-goal defense in the country. What happens when they have to contend with Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and Isaiah Hicks, though? Josh Hart has been a fantastic secondary rebounder, but is the 6'5" wing big enough to defend any of those guys?

Though he doesn't officially return to the court until Tuesday night against Maryland, we're assuming that North Carolina has Marcus Paige for this game and that it's enough of an upgrade on the perimeter to allow the Tar Heels to capitalize on their advantage in the post.

Mad respect for Villanova, though. Hart, Ochefu and Ryan Arcidiacono are playing well enough that it's not crazy to think the Wildcats would deserve to be favored in this game against the preseason No. 1 team in the country.

No. 3 Maryland over No. 14 Cincinnati

This is an exponentially more difficult decision than the rankings might suggest, but Maryland seems to be turning in the right direction while Cincinnati has reverted to struggling on offense.

Winner of this game might be the first to 55 points. Maryland is No. 3 in the nation at offensive two-point field-goal percentage, but Cincinnati is No. 3 in the defensive counterpart. Look for the perimeter battle between Rasheed Sulaimon and Farad Cobb to serve as the deciding factor in this fictitious game.

No. 7 Purdue over No. 10 Xavier

I love what Xavier has brought to the table in the first few weeks of this season, but Purdue has been even more incredible. According to KenPom.com, the Boilermakers lead the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage. Even though they force virtually no turnovers on defense, opponents have had very little luck trying to score against them.

Meanwhile, the Musketeers haven't actually been shooting very well—a very average 34.7 percent from three-point range and a very average 47.8 percent from inside the arc. Their primary edge has been on the glass, and it's highly unlikely that they would dominate the boards against Purdue's front line.

Thus, in a game in which each team would theoretically have a fairly even number of field-goal attempts, Purdue gets a pretty significant edge.

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 South Carolina

Hofstra senior guards Juan'ya Green and Ameen Tanksley each scored at least 18 points against South Carolina last week, as did Tulsa senior guards Shaquille Harrison and James Woodard. If you think the Gamecocks are slowing down Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes in this game, you might be certifiably insane.

In related news, South Carolina's biggest advantage so far this season has been offensive rebounding. Too bad Michigan State is No. 2 in the nation in defense rebounding.

Elite Eight

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As dumb luck would have it, all four of these Elite Eight pairings are battles between teams that will actually square off at least once this season. Thus, even though this tournament isn't happening, you'll have an opportunity to look back on this page in a few days or months and reminisce on how intelligent/idiotic my predictions were.

No. 1 Kansas over No. 9 Iowa State

Since Fred Hoiberg turned Iowa State into a nationally relevant program, this has been one of the best rivalries in the country. The Jayhawks and Cyclones have met a total of 11 times over the past four seasons. Though Kansas holds a 7-4 edge in the series, there's no telling what will happen when these two teams get together.

It's still a little too early to really dig into advanced metrics, but Iowa State and Kansas both rank top 25 in the nation in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.com. Neither team has any glaring weaknesses, unless you want to count the mutually poor offensive rebounding rates. But they both excel on the defensive glass, so let's just assume there won't be many second-chance buckets in these games.

For sake of argument, we're assuming that Kansas does have Cheick Diallo but does not have Brannen Greene, and that the net result is a wash—Diallo helps combat Jameel McKay and block shots, but the lack of Greene hurts what has otherwise been one of the best three-point assaults in the country.

After much hemming and hawing, though, I've got to give a slight edge to Kansas. Perry Ellis and Frank Mason against Monte Morris and Georges Niang is too close to call, but 2015-16 Wayne Selden is too much for Naz Long or Abdel Nader to handle. And if Devonte' Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk can bring their play in Hawaii to the mainland, there are just too many offensive weapons for the Jayhawks.

No. 5 Virginia over No. 13 Syracuse

They're hardly alone on this island, but the Orange have struggled to score against Virginia over the past two seasons. They suffered a total of six losses during the 2013-14 season, but only one came by a margin of more than six points: a 75-56 loss to Virginia. And last year, they scored just 47 points in a 12-point loss to the Wahoos.

Granted, Syracuse's offense is a good deal more efficient than it was last year, but it's unlikely that Jim Boeheim has suddenly cracked the code of Tony Bennett's pack-line defense just because Michael Gbinije and a few freshmen are hitting early shots.

Meanwhile, Virginia has had minimal difficulty against Syracuse's world-famous zone defense. The Cavaliers committed an inordinate number of turnovers in last year's affair but shot better than 50 percent inside the arc and grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. The year before that, they committed just six turnovers and were equally dominant in the paint.

Anything could happen when they do square off in late January, but the early money is on Malcolm Brogdon and Co.

No. 11 North Carolina over No. 3 Maryland

There are less than 24 hours until we find out which of these teams is actually better.

Both of these preseason Final Four favorites have shown some serious red flags already this year—North Carolina in a loss to Northern Iowa and Maryland in a near-loss to Rider. But at least the Tar Heels have the excuse of playing on the road without their Wooden Award candidate.

When are the Terrapins going to start playing like a team worthy of first-place votes in the AP poll?

(Based on how well my preseason prediction of Wichita State flirting with another undefeated season has panned out, the answer to that question is probably Tuesday night, since I'm picking Maryland to lose here.)

Even without Marcus Paige, North Carolina ranks No. 3 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Guys like Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and Theo Pinson have stepped up in a huge way for these first few weeks of the season without their leader. With Paige back in the fold, virtually anyone on the court could be the guy to grab a clutch rebound or score a clutch bucket with the clock winding down.

Aside from maybe Melo Trimble draining a cold-blooded shot, is there anyone on Maryland's roster at this point in time whom you're particularly comfortable needing to count on for something clutch at the end of a game?

That's why I'm going with the Tar Heels.

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 7 Purdue

To say the least, these picks aren't getting any easier to make. This one might be the toughest of them all.

With all due respect to Providence's Kris Dunn and LSU's Ben Simmons, Michigan State has the best player in the country in Denzel Valentine. He already has two triple-doubles this season, and it's only a matter of time before he gets a few more. There's not a negative thing to be said about his game, unless you're trying to project his future value and are concerned about how his size and athleticism will translate to the NBA.

But with P.J. Thompson quickly being established as Purdue's primary point guard, the Boilermakers might have the most complete team in the country.

Valentine is amazing and almost certainly going to win his individual battle against Vince Edwards. But can he win it convincingly enough to make up for the advantage that A.J. Hammons, Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan will have in the paint against Matt Costello and Deyonta Davis?

I think so, but it's going to be very close.

The scary thing about both of these teams is they're only going to get better (barring injuries). Eron Harris is going to become a much more reliable shooting guard for the Spartans, and their interior game will improve once Gavin Schilling recovers from a toe injury. And just wait until Caleb Swanigan starts averaging more made field goals than turnovers per game for Purdue.

They only meet once during the regular season, but prepare for Feb. 9 to yield one of the best games of the entire 2015-16 season.

Final Four

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No. 1 Kansas over No. 5 Virginia

Though they have scored quite well as an entire team over the past four games, the Cavaliers not named Malcolm Brogdon struggled offensively in their only game against a tournament-caliber opponent.

I want to believe that Anthony Gill can be the second-best scoring option on a Final Four team, and that London Perrantes and Mike Tobey are good enough at the 1 and 5 to lead this team to a third straight 30-win season. However, I have my doubts.

And while Kansas isn't the most perfect team in the world, doubts in the Jayhawks are few and far between with Cheick Diallo cleared and Devonte' Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk both out to productive starts. Their big three of Frank Mason, Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis is about as good as it gets.

Think of it this way: What happens if Brogdon and Selden play to a draw? Is Malcolm's supporting cast strong enough to beat Wayne's supporting cast?

Sure, Brogdon could go nuts and score 30 points, but it's more likely that the shooting guards in this one are fairly evenly matched and that the remaining Jayhawks take care of business.

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 11 North Carolina

What a great battle between the team that arguably opened the season as the best in the country and the team that arguably opens December as the best in the country. If this ends up being an actual Final Four showdown this March, it will have been a successful tournament.

Like the prior round's matchup between Michigan State and Purdue, we have another case of an outstanding player going up against an outstanding team. The major difference, though, is that the Boilermakers have been phenomenal on defense this season, while the Tar Heels have been giving up three-pointers like it's their job.

In each of its six games, North Carolina has allowed at least eight made three-pointers. In five of those games, the opposition shot at least 36 percent from downtown.

That's bad news for North Carolina in this matchup, as the Spartans are shooting 41.1 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 8.6 made triples per game. Even with Marcus Paige back in the fold, the boys in blue would have too much trouble keeping Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes from an all-you-can-eat three-point buffet.

Champion of Champions

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No. 1 Kansas over No. 2 Michigan State

Yes, I'm well aware that Michigan State beat Kansas in the Champions Classic, but that doesn't mean the Spartans would necessarily be favored in a rematch.

Denzel Valentine had an incredible individual line of 29 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds. Kansas shot 20.0 percent from three-point range and held an 11-point lead with less than 10 minutes remaining. Kansas was without Cheick Diallo, and his absence is at least partially to blame for its negative-10 rebounding margin. Michigan State missed exactly one shot (free throw or field goal) in the final seven minutes and still only won by six points.

Do you realize how many things had to go right for Michigan State to escape with that win? If these teams played on a neutral court 100 times, do you really think the Spartans win 51 times?

If so, you're perfectly entitled to that opinion. The Spartans made it this far in our tournament, so they're clearly one of the best teams in the entire country.

And yet, Kansas held a double-digit lead fairly late in the game against that team while getting subpar performances out of everyone on the roster other than Perry Ellis. If they play again with Wayne Selden hitting shots, Devonte' Graham providing some amount of value and Diallo battling in the paint, it's probably a different story.

Let's just hope we're fortunate enough to find out who would win round two.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.